Prediction 255

Dengue Sprint2425 R Temporal Quantitative Weekly ADM 1
Download CSV Dashboard
Modelo Model 1 - Weekly and yearly (iid) components
Autor Marcio Maciel Bastos

Descrição:

The model is founded on a structural decomposition designed for modeling counting series, employing a Poisson distribution. The log intensity is defined by the sum of weekly and yearly components, where the first one is defined as a AR(1) process and the last one is assumed to be iid.


Mostrar Tabela
date pred lower_95 lower_90 lower_80 lower_50 upper_50 upper_80 upper_90 upper_95
2023-06-11 185.33 - 177.08 - - - - 193.86 -
2023-06-18 171.74 - 163.86 - - - - 179.89 -
2023-06-25 138.78 - 131.84 - - - - 145.97 -
2023-07-02 153.34 - 145.99 - - - - 160.97 -
2023-07-09 139.48 - 132.53 - - - - 146.69 -
2023-07-16 135.11 - 128.29 - - - - 142.20 -
2023-07-23 114.76 - 108.56 - - - - 121.21 -
2023-07-30 105.32 - 99.42 - - - - 111.47 -
2023-08-06 120.92 - 114.53 - - - - 127.57 -
2023-08-13 103.63 - 97.79 - - - - 109.72 -
2023-08-20 82.67 - 77.55 - - - - 88.04 -
2023-08-27 93.28 - 87.79 - - - - 99.02 -
2023-09-03 83.00 - 77.87 - - - - 88.39 -
2023-09-10 88.27 - 82.95 - - - - 93.84 -
2023-09-17 103.13 - 97.31 - - - - 109.21 -
2023-09-24 104.72 - 98.84 - - - - 110.84 -
2023-10-01 108.51 - 102.51 - - - - 114.76 -
2023-10-08 109.52 - 103.49 - - - - 115.80 -
2023-10-15 111.33 - 105.24 - - - - 117.67 -
2023-10-22 98.60 - 92.93 - - - - 104.52 -
2023-10-29 111.55 - 105.45 - - - - 117.90 -
2023-11-05 128.92 - 122.28 - - - - 135.81 -
2023-11-12 154.53 - 147.15 - - - - 162.20 -
2023-11-19 180.12 - 172.01 - - - - 188.51 -
2023-11-26 198.52 - 189.92 - - - - 207.41 -
2023-12-03 174.16 - 166.22 - - - - 182.39 -
2023-12-10 203.26 - 194.52 - - - - 212.28 -
2023-12-17 199.35 - 190.72 - - - - 208.26 -
2023-12-24 199.46 - 191.15 - - - - 208.03 -
2023-12-31 400.28 - 89.25 - - - - 1172.75 -
2024-01-07 416.78 - 92.92 - - - - 1221.07 -
2024-01-14 437.49 - 97.54 - - - - 1281.76 -
2024-01-21 674.06 - 150.31 - - - - 1974.72 -
2024-01-28 709.99 - 158.32 - - - - 2079.96 -
2024-02-04 766.83 - 171.00 - - - - 2246.49 -
2024-02-11 873.67 - 194.83 - - - - 2559.45 -
2024-02-18 441.12 - 98.35 - - - - 1292.39 -
2024-02-25 901.10 - 200.95 - - - - 2639.78 -
2024-03-03 815.48 - 181.85 - - - - 2388.98 -
2024-03-10 744.28 - 165.97 - - - - 2180.42 -
2024-03-17 618.03 - 137.81 - - - - 1810.60 -
2024-03-24 341.98 - 76.24 - - - - 1001.97 -
2024-03-31 533.02 - 118.85 - - - - 1561.58 -
2024-04-07 424.06 - 94.55 - - - - 1242.41 -
2024-04-14 305.80 - 68.17 - - - - 896.00 -
2024-04-21 326.98 - 72.90 - - - - 958.03 -
2024-04-28 301.11 - 67.12 - - - - 882.25 -
2024-05-05 283.52 - 63.20 - - - - 830.73 -
2024-05-12 259.61 - 57.87 - - - - 760.69 -
2024-05-19 204.58 - 45.60 - - - - 599.50 -
2024-05-26 231.09 - 51.51 - - - - 677.16 -
2024-06-02 219.44 - 48.91 - - - - 643.01 -
2024-06-09 204.02 - 45.47 - - - - 597.87 -
2024-06-16 189.05 - 42.13 - - - - 554.02 -
2024-06-23 152.77 - 34.04 - - - - 447.74 -
2024-06-30 168.80 - 37.61 - - - - 494.71 -
2024-07-07 153.54 - 34.21 - - - - 450.00 -
2024-07-14 148.74 - 33.14 - - - - 435.93 -
2024-07-21 126.33 - 28.14 - - - - 370.28 -
2024-07-28 115.94 - 25.82 - - - - 339.85 -
2024-08-04 133.11 - 29.65 - - - - 390.14 -
2024-08-11 114.07 - 25.41 - - - - 334.39 -
2024-08-18 91.01 - 20.26 - - - - 266.82 -
2024-08-25 102.68 - 22.87 - - - - 301.02 -
2024-09-01 91.37 - 20.34 - - - - 267.89 -
2024-09-08 97.17 - 21.64 - - - - 284.88 -
2024-09-15 113.53 - 25.28 - - - - 332.79 -
2024-09-22 115.27 - 25.67 - - - - 337.91 -
2024-09-29 119.45 - 26.60 - - - - 350.14 -