Prediction 256

Dengue Sprint2425 R Temporal Quantitative Weekly ADM 1
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Modelo Model 1 - Weekly and yearly (iid) components
Autor Marcio Maciel Bastos

Descrição:

The model is founded on a structural decomposition designed for modeling counting series, employing a Poisson distribution. The log intensity is defined by the sum of weekly and yearly components, where the first one is defined as a AR(1) process and the last one is assumed to be iid.


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date pred lower_95 lower_90 lower_80 lower_50 upper_50 upper_80 upper_90 upper_95
2023-06-11 1168.92 - 1147.20 - - - - 1190.94 -
2023-06-18 891.25 - 873.49 - - - - 909.27 -
2023-06-25 939.51 - 921.06 - - - - 958.24 -
2023-07-02 678.46 - 663.83 - - - - 693.33 -
2023-07-09 745.43 - 729.80 - - - - 761.30 -
2023-07-16 528.70 - 516.35 - - - - 541.27 -
2023-07-23 528.60 - 516.25 - - - - 541.16 -
2023-07-30 452.00 - 440.86 - - - - 463.34 -
2023-08-06 428.16 - 417.41 - - - - 439.12 -
2023-08-13 427.45 - 416.70 - - - - 438.39 -
2023-08-20 315.93 - 307.05 - - - - 324.99 -
2023-08-27 265.36 - 257.39 - - - - 273.51 -
2023-09-03 263.59 - 255.65 - - - - 271.71 -
2023-09-10 223.36 - 216.16 - - - - 230.72 -
2023-09-17 242.20 - 234.66 - - - - 249.93 -
2023-09-24 221.54 - 214.39 - - - - 228.87 -
2023-10-01 188.12 - 181.62 - - - - 194.79 -
2023-10-08 195.35 - 188.71 - - - - 202.16 -
2023-10-15 163.35 - 157.36 - - - - 169.50 -
2023-10-22 136.53 - 131.13 - - - - 142.10 -
2023-10-29 163.00 - 157.02 - - - - 169.14 -
2023-11-05 157.98 - 152.11 - - - - 164.01 -
2023-11-12 185.99 - 179.54 - - - - 192.62 -
2023-11-19 186.84 - 180.37 - - - - 193.48 -
2023-11-26 174.29 - 168.07 - - - - 180.67 -
2023-12-03 200.92 - 194.16 - - - - 207.84 -
2023-12-10 169.47 - 163.35 - - - - 175.75 -
2023-12-17 147.69 - 142.05 - - - - 153.51 -
2023-12-24 134.20 - 129.04 - - - - 139.51 -
2023-12-31 417.58 - 111.09 - - - - 1116.42 -
2024-01-07 460.29 - 122.46 - - - - 1230.59 -
2024-01-14 520.36 - 138.44 - - - - 1391.14 -
2024-01-21 655.15 - 174.32 - - - - 1751.44 -
2024-01-28 772.58 - 205.57 - - - - 2065.33 -
2024-02-04 873.46 - 232.41 - - - - 2334.97 -
2024-02-11 1059.43 - 281.91 - - - - 2832.08 -
2024-02-18 879.47 - 234.01 - - - - 2351.04 -
2024-02-25 1352.94 - 360.02 - - - - 3616.63 -
2024-03-03 1466.53 - 390.25 - - - - 3920.25 -
2024-03-10 1347.66 - 358.62 - - - - 3602.50 -
2024-03-17 1530.03 - 407.15 - - - - 4089.99 -
2024-03-24 1727.87 - 459.81 - - - - 4618.79 -
2024-03-31 2229.43 - 593.29 - - - - 5959.47 -
2024-04-07 2518.95 - 670.34 - - - - 6733.34 -
2024-04-14 2219.27 - 590.59 - - - - 5932.32 -
2024-04-21 2440.77 - 649.54 - - - - 6524.36 -
2024-04-28 2815.71 - 749.32 - - - - 7526.59 -
2024-05-05 2631.37 - 700.26 - - - - 7033.84 -
2024-05-12 2448.75 - 651.66 - - - - 6545.69 -
2024-05-19 2619.97 - 697.23 - - - - 7003.36 -
2024-05-26 2033.73 - 541.21 - - - - 5436.36 -
2024-06-02 1897.26 - 504.89 - - - - 5071.57 -
2024-06-09 1918.85 - 510.63 - - - - 5129.30 -
2024-06-16 1463.04 - 389.32 - - - - 3910.93 -
2024-06-23 1542.26 - 410.41 - - - - 4122.69 -
2024-06-30 1113.73 - 296.36 - - - - 2977.23 -
2024-07-07 1223.66 - 325.62 - - - - 3271.08 -
2024-07-14 867.89 - 230.93 - - - - 2320.12 -
2024-07-21 867.73 - 230.89 - - - - 2319.67 -
2024-07-28 741.98 - 197.42 - - - - 1983.55 -
2024-08-04 702.86 - 187.01 - - - - 1878.96 -
2024-08-11 701.68 - 186.69 - - - - 1875.81 -
2024-08-18 518.61 - 137.97 - - - - 1386.48 -
2024-08-25 435.60 - 115.88 - - - - 1164.60 -
2024-09-01 432.70 - 115.11 - - - - 1156.83 -
2024-09-08 366.65 - 97.53 - - - - 980.30 -
2024-09-15 397.59 - 105.77 - - - - 1063.00 -
2024-09-22 363.67 - 96.74 - - - - 972.34 -
2024-09-29 308.81 - 82.14 - - - - 825.70 -
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