Prediction 257

Dengue Sprint2425 R Temporal Quantitative Weekly ADM 1
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Modelo Model 1 - Weekly and yearly (iid) components
Autor Marcio Maciel Bastos

Descrição:

The model is founded on a structural decomposition designed for modeling counting series, employing a Poisson distribution. The log intensity is defined by the sum of weekly and yearly components, where the first one is defined as a AR(1) process and the last one is assumed to be iid.


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date pred lower_95 lower_90 lower_80 lower_50 upper_50 upper_80 upper_90 upper_95
2023-06-11 1277.15 - 1256.19 - - - - 1298.37 -
2023-06-18 1083.16 - 1064.22 - - - - 1102.34 -
2023-06-25 971.91 - 954.18 - - - - 989.88 -
2023-07-02 582.22 - 569.08 - - - - 595.57 -
2023-07-09 690.98 - 676.49 - - - - 705.69 -
2023-07-16 606.56 - 593.13 - - - - 620.22 -
2023-07-23 486.32 - 474.46 - - - - 498.39 -
2023-07-30 490.03 - 478.12 - - - - 502.15 -
2023-08-06 361.77 - 351.71 - - - - 372.03 -
2023-08-13 391.84 - 381.33 - - - - 402.56 -
2023-08-20 307.52 - 298.32 - - - - 316.93 -
2023-08-27 379.63 - 369.30 - - - - 390.17 -
2023-09-03 307.15 - 297.95 - - - - 316.55 -
2023-09-10 417.02 - 406.14 - - - - 428.11 -
2023-09-17 389.50 - 379.03 - - - - 400.19 -
2023-09-24 453.00 - 441.61 - - - - 464.61 -
2023-10-01 388.92 - 378.45 - - - - 399.59 -
2023-10-08 406.93 - 396.20 - - - - 417.87 -
2023-10-15 479.62 - 467.86 - - - - 491.60 -
2023-10-22 469.45 - 457.83 - - - - 481.29 -
2023-10-29 460.43 - 448.93 - - - - 472.14 -
2023-11-05 540.21 - 527.63 - - - - 553.01 -
2023-11-12 550.82 - 538.10 - - - - 563.76 -
2023-11-19 654.04 - 640.01 - - - - 668.30 -
2023-11-26 587.61 - 574.41 - - - - 601.03 -
2023-12-03 874.16 - 857.52 - - - - 891.03 -
2023-12-10 740.79 - 725.70 - - - - 756.10 -
2023-12-17 641.16 - 627.29 - - - - 655.26 -
2023-12-24 753.68 - 739.17 - - - - 768.40 -
2023-12-31 2025.21 - 616.92 - - - - 5021.06 -
2024-01-07 2144.16 - 653.16 - - - - 5315.97 -
2024-01-14 2487.99 - 757.91 - - - - 6168.37 -
2024-01-21 2746.92 - 836.79 - - - - 6810.29 -
2024-01-28 2801.54 - 853.43 - - - - 6945.72 -
2024-02-04 2955.66 - 900.38 - - - - 7327.80 -
2024-02-11 3376.46 - 1028.58 - - - - 8371.05 -
2024-02-18 3699.27 - 1126.92 - - - - 9171.33 -
2024-02-25 3745.11 - 1140.88 - - - - 9284.97 -
2024-03-03 3902.64 - 1188.88 - - - - 9675.52 -
2024-03-10 4167.70 - 1269.62 - - - - 10332.64 -
2024-03-17 3942.81 - 1201.11 - - - - 9775.11 -
2024-03-24 3706.65 - 1129.17 - - - - 9189.64 -
2024-03-31 3934.26 - 1198.51 - - - - 9753.90 -
2024-04-07 3187.02 - 970.86 - - - - 7901.40 -
2024-04-14 3824.64 - 1165.11 - - - - 9482.15 -
2024-04-21 3664.02 - 1116.18 - - - - 9083.96 -
2024-04-28 3571.20 - 1087.90 - - - - 8853.84 -
2024-05-05 3382.98 - 1030.56 - - - - 8387.19 -
2024-05-12 3113.10 - 948.34 - - - - 7718.12 -
2024-05-19 2375.83 - 723.74 - - - - 5890.32 -
2024-05-26 2096.99 - 638.79 - - - - 5199.02 -
2024-06-02 1951.63 - 594.50 - - - - 4838.64 -
2024-06-09 1521.39 - 463.43 - - - - 3772.03 -
2024-06-16 1290.29 - 393.03 - - - - 3199.10 -
2024-06-23 1157.78 - 352.66 - - - - 2870.57 -
2024-06-30 693.56 - 211.23 - - - - 1719.70 -
2024-07-07 823.12 - 250.70 - - - - 2040.90 -
2024-07-14 722.56 - 220.07 - - - - 1791.60 -
2024-07-21 579.32 - 176.43 - - - - 1436.48 -
2024-07-28 583.74 - 177.78 - - - - 1447.44 -
2024-08-04 430.95 - 131.23 - - - - 1068.65 -
2024-08-11 466.77 - 142.15 - - - - 1157.46 -
2024-08-18 366.33 - 111.55 - - - - 908.45 -
2024-08-25 452.23 - 137.71 - - - - 1121.40 -
2024-09-01 365.89 - 111.41 - - - - 907.35 -
2024-09-08 496.77 - 151.28 - - - - 1231.82 -
2024-09-15 463.99 - 141.30 - - - - 1150.55 -
2024-09-22 539.63 - 164.34 - - - - 1338.10 -
2024-09-29 463.29 - 141.09 - - - - 1148.83 -