Prediction 258

Dengue Sprint2425 R Temporal Quantitative Weekly ADM 1
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Modelo Model 1 - Weekly and yearly (iid) components
Autor Marcio Maciel Bastos

Descrição:

The model is founded on a structural decomposition designed for modeling counting series, employing a Poisson distribution. The log intensity is defined by the sum of weekly and yearly components, where the first one is defined as a AR(1) process and the last one is assumed to be iid.


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date pred lower_95 lower_90 lower_80 lower_50 upper_50 upper_80 upper_90 upper_95
2023-06-11 8500.10 - 8393.48 - - - - 8607.72 -
2023-06-18 5314.06 - 5230.76 - - - - 5398.34 -
2023-06-25 4945.41 - 4865.19 - - - - 5026.61 -
2023-07-02 3783.87 - 3714.07 - - - - 3854.64 -
2023-07-09 2909.00 - 2848.07 - - - - 2970.88 -
2023-07-16 2050.73 - 1999.85 - - - - 2102.56 -
2023-07-23 2035.03 - 1984.37 - - - - 2086.65 -
2023-07-30 1675.08 - 1629.25 - - - - 1721.86 -
2023-08-06 1682.90 - 1636.97 - - - - 1729.78 -
2023-08-13 1588.62 - 1544.03 - - - - 1634.15 -
2023-08-20 1712.86 - 1666.50 - - - - 1760.17 -
2023-08-27 1459.87 - 1417.18 - - - - 1503.50 -
2023-09-03 1634.48 - 1589.24 - - - - 1680.68 -
2023-09-10 1747.39 - 1700.56 - - - - 1795.17 -
2023-09-17 1871.69 - 1823.17 - - - - 1921.16 -
2023-09-24 1784.67 - 1737.33 - - - - 1832.97 -
2023-10-01 1831.72 - 1783.73 - - - - 1880.65 -
2023-10-08 1724.20 - 1677.68 - - - - 1771.66 -
2023-10-15 2024.35 - 1973.82 - - - - 2075.83 -
2023-10-22 1895.75 - 1846.90 - - - - 1945.55 -
2023-10-29 2039.42 - 1988.70 - - - - 2091.09 -
2023-11-05 2256.94 - 2203.50 - - - - 2311.34 -
2023-11-12 2465.12 - 2409.18 - - - - 2522.00 -
2023-11-19 3025.30 - 2963.12 - - - - 3088.43 -
2023-11-26 3130.36 - 3067.08 - - - - 3194.60 -
2023-12-03 3840.61 - 3770.26 - - - - 3911.92 -
2023-12-10 4203.33 - 4129.61 - - - - 4278.01 -
2023-12-17 4437.07 - 4361.25 - - - - 4513.86 -
2023-12-24 4937.57 - 4860.23 - - - - 5015.81 -
2023-12-31 2497.99 - 174.22 - - - - 11365.73 -
2024-01-07 3270.38 - 228.09 - - - - 14880.00 -
2024-01-14 3827.51 - 266.95 - - - - 17414.88 -
2024-01-21 4456.40 - 310.82 - - - - 20276.28 -
2024-01-28 4693.40 - 327.35 - - - - 21354.60 -
2024-02-04 6362.31 - 443.75 - - - - 28947.93 -
2024-02-11 7659.92 - 534.25 - - - - 34851.92 -
2024-02-18 7794.20 - 543.62 - - - - 35462.92 -
2024-02-25 9017.68 - 628.96 - - - - 41029.60 -
2024-03-03 11190.72 - 780.52 - - - - 50916.66 -
2024-03-10 11328.84 - 790.15 - - - - 51545.11 -
2024-03-17 12426.16 - 866.69 - - - - 56537.79 -
2024-03-24 11921.73 - 831.51 - - - - 54242.70 -
2024-03-31 14068.63 - 981.25 - - - - 64010.81 -
2024-04-07 14281.88 - 996.12 - - - - 64981.11 -
2024-04-14 12869.16 - 897.59 - - - - 58553.37 -
2024-04-21 12232.08 - 853.15 - - - - 55654.76 -
2024-04-28 11538.41 - 804.77 - - - - 52498.64 -
2024-05-05 10514.55 - 733.36 - - - - 47840.20 -
2024-05-12 8998.05 - 627.59 - - - - 40940.27 -
2024-05-19 6323.02 - 441.01 - - - - 28769.18 -
2024-05-26 4144.80 - 289.08 - - - - 18858.52 -
2024-06-02 3857.12 - 269.02 - - - - 17549.63 -
2024-06-09 2800.82 - 195.34 - - - - 12743.63 -
2024-06-16 1751.01 - 122.12 - - - - 7967.09 -
2024-06-23 1629.54 - 113.65 - - - - 7414.40 -
2024-06-30 1246.80 - 86.95 - - - - 5673.01 -
2024-07-07 958.53 - 66.84 - - - - 4361.39 -
2024-07-14 675.73 - 47.12 - - - - 3074.67 -
2024-07-21 670.55 - 46.76 - - - - 3051.14 -
2024-07-28 551.95 - 38.49 - - - - 2511.49 -
2024-08-04 554.52 - 38.67 - - - - 2523.22 -
2024-08-11 523.46 - 36.50 - - - - 2381.86 -
2024-08-18 564.40 - 39.35 - - - - 2568.13 -
2024-08-25 481.03 - 33.54 - - - - 2188.84 -
2024-09-01 538.57 - 37.55 - - - - 2450.63 -
2024-09-08 575.77 - 40.15 - - - - 2619.90 -
2024-09-15 616.73 - 43.01 - - - - 2806.25 -
2024-09-22 588.06 - 41.01 - - - - 2675.79 -
2024-09-29 603.56 - 42.09 - - - - 2746.32 -