Prediction 259

Dengue Sprint2425 R Temporal Quantitative Weekly ADM 1
Download CSV Dashboard
Modelo Model 1 - Weekly and yearly (iid) components
Autor Marcio Maciel Bastos

Descrição:

The model is founded on a structural decomposition designed for modeling counting series, employing a Poisson distribution. The log intensity is defined by the sum of weekly and yearly components, where the first one is defined as a AR(1) process and the last one is assumed to be iid.


Mostrar Tabela
date pred lower_95 lower_90 lower_80 lower_50 upper_50 upper_80 upper_90 upper_95
2023-06-11 2382.29 - 2335.14 - - - - 2430.14 -
2023-06-18 2430.51 - 2382.85 - - - - 2478.87 -
2023-06-25 1941.40 - 1899.14 - - - - 1984.36 -
2023-07-02 1549.97 - 1512.47 - - - - 1588.16 -
2023-07-09 1237.80 - 1204.48 - - - - 1271.79 -
2023-07-16 1181.93 - 1149.42 - - - - 1215.11 -
2023-07-23 1074.91 - 1043.98 - - - - 1106.52 -
2023-07-30 951.93 - 922.92 - - - - 981.62 -
2023-08-06 911.26 - 882.90 - - - - 940.29 -
2023-08-13 942.19 - 913.33 - - - - 971.72 -
2023-08-20 1018.89 - 988.81 - - - - 1049.64 -
2023-08-27 896.32 - 868.20 - - - - 925.10 -
2023-09-03 938.99 - 910.18 - - - - 968.47 -
2023-09-10 964.88 - 935.66 - - - - 994.78 -
2023-09-17 987.05 - 957.48 - - - - 1017.30 -
2023-09-24 1018.55 - 988.49 - - - - 1049.29 -
2023-10-01 1005.70 - 975.83 - - - - 1036.24 -
2023-10-08 1085.23 - 1054.15 - - - - 1116.99 -
2023-10-15 1038.64 - 1008.26 - - - - 1069.70 -
2023-10-22 1197.29 - 1164.56 - - - - 1230.71 -
2023-10-29 1144.38 - 1112.41 - - - - 1177.02 -
2023-11-05 1409.52 - 1373.85 - - - - 1445.88 -
2023-11-12 1663.48 - 1624.54 - - - - 1703.10 -
2023-11-19 1851.45 - 1810.24 - - - - 1893.36 -
2023-11-26 1855.95 - 1814.68 - - - - 1897.90 -
2023-12-03 1886.96 - 1845.33 - - - - 1929.28 -
2023-12-10 2277.99 - 2231.96 - - - - 2324.73 -
2023-12-17 2074.52 - 2030.73 - - - - 2119.00 -
2023-12-24 1509.37 - 1476.34 - - - - 1542.94 -
2023-12-31 1013.07 - 92.78 - - - - 4252.35 -
2024-01-07 1354.38 - 124.04 - - - - 5684.93 -
2024-01-14 1659.67 - 152.01 - - - - 6966.33 -
2024-01-21 2176.31 - 199.33 - - - - 9134.80 -
2024-01-28 2191.08 - 200.68 - - - - 9196.80 -
2024-02-04 3012.10 - 275.88 - - - - 12642.86 -
2024-02-11 3342.72 - 306.17 - - - - 14030.57 -
2024-02-18 3779.25 - 346.15 - - - - 15862.84 -
2024-02-25 4461.02 - 408.60 - - - - 18724.45 -
2024-03-03 4126.55 - 377.96 - - - - 17320.56 -
2024-03-10 6081.94 - 557.07 - - - - 25527.90 -
2024-03-17 5610.38 - 513.87 - - - - 23548.63 -
2024-03-24 5878.69 - 538.45 - - - - 24674.84 -
2024-03-31 6144.99 - 562.84 - - - - 25792.57 -
2024-04-07 6590.80 - 603.67 - - - - 27663.75 -
2024-04-14 4905.17 - 449.28 - - - - 20588.67 -
2024-04-21 5097.65 - 466.91 - - - - 21396.57 -
2024-04-28 5009.95 - 458.88 - - - - 21028.46 -
2024-05-05 4741.48 - 434.29 - - - - 19901.60 -
2024-05-12 2893.70 - 265.04 - - - - 12145.92 -
2024-05-19 2488.35 - 227.91 - - - - 10444.53 -
2024-05-26 1747.65 - 160.07 - - - - 7335.58 -
2024-06-02 1400.02 - 128.22 - - - - 5876.47 -
2024-06-09 1046.55 - 95.85 - - - - 4392.88 -
2024-06-16 1067.73 - 97.79 - - - - 4481.79 -
2024-06-23 852.87 - 78.10 - - - - 3579.94 -
2024-06-30 680.91 - 62.35 - - - - 2858.18 -
2024-07-07 543.77 - 49.79 - - - - 2282.56 -
2024-07-14 519.22 - 47.54 - - - - 2179.54 -
2024-07-21 472.21 - 43.24 - - - - 1982.22 -
2024-07-28 418.19 - 38.29 - - - - 1755.46 -
2024-08-04 400.32 - 36.65 - - - - 1680.46 -
2024-08-11 413.91 - 37.90 - - - - 1737.50 -
2024-08-18 447.60 - 40.98 - - - - 1878.92 -
2024-08-25 393.76 - 36.05 - - - - 1652.91 -
2024-09-01 412.50 - 37.77 - - - - 1731.59 -
2024-09-08 423.88 - 38.81 - - - - 1779.34 -
2024-09-15 433.62 - 39.70 - - - - 1820.21 -
2024-09-22 447.45 - 40.97 - - - - 1878.30 -
2024-09-29 441.81 - 40.45 - - - - 1854.60 -