Prediction 260

Dengue Sprint2425 R Temporal Quantitative Weekly ADM 1
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Modelo Model 2 - Weekly and yearly (rw1) components
Autor Marcio Maciel Bastos

Descrição:

The model is founded on a structural decomposition designed for modeling counting series, employing a Poisson distribution. The log intensity is defined by the sum of weekly and yearly components, where the first one is defined as a AR(1) process and the last one follows a RW(1) process.


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date pred lower_95 lower_90 lower_80 lower_50 upper_50 upper_80 upper_90 upper_95
2022-06-26 65.85 - 62.26 - - - - 69.59 -
2022-07-03 71.05 - 67.28 - - - - 74.98 -
2022-07-10 63.91 - 60.39 - - - - 67.59 -
2022-07-17 65.08 - 61.51 - - - - 68.79 -
2022-07-24 53.61 - 50.45 - - - - 56.91 -
2022-07-31 48.57 - 45.60 - - - - 51.68 -
2022-08-07 57.39 - 54.09 - - - - 60.82 -
2022-08-14 48.38 - 45.42 - - - - 51.48 -
2022-08-21 39.29 - 36.69 - - - - 42.03 -
2022-08-28 43.97 - 41.18 - - - - 46.89 -
2022-09-04 39.01 - 36.42 - - - - 41.74 -
2022-09-11 42.07 - 39.35 - - - - 44.92 -
2022-09-18 43.84 - 41.06 - - - - 46.77 -
2022-09-25 41.05 - 38.37 - - - - 43.86 -
2022-10-02 41.88 - 39.17 - - - - 44.73 -
2022-10-09 42.50 - 39.77 - - - - 45.37 -
2022-10-16 46.43 - 43.54 - - - - 49.45 -
2022-10-23 39.51 - 36.89 - - - - 42.25 -
2022-10-30 44.26 - 41.46 - - - - 47.20 -
2022-11-06 55.02 - 51.82 - - - - 58.37 -
2022-11-13 66.02 - 62.42 - - - - 69.77 -
2022-11-20 79.26 - 75.20 - - - - 83.47 -
2022-11-27 88.21 - 83.86 - - - - 92.72 -
2022-12-04 80.32 - 76.24 - - - - 84.57 -
2022-12-11 89.87 - 85.47 - - - - 94.44 -
2022-12-18 88.62 - 84.26 - - - - 93.15 -
2022-12-25 88.07 - 83.88 - - - - 92.42 -
2023-01-01 270.57 - 26.43 - - - - 1111.90 -
2023-01-08 280.73 - 27.43 - - - - 1153.66 -
2023-01-15 296.76 - 28.99 - - - - 1219.54 -
2023-01-22 473.63 - 46.28 - - - - 1946.32 -
2023-01-29 503.41 - 49.19 - - - - 2068.67 -
2023-02-05 546.59 - 53.41 - - - - 2246.11 -
2023-02-12 637.07 - 62.26 - - - - 2617.92 -
2023-02-19 309.81 - 30.27 - - - - 1273.16 -
2023-02-26 657.50 - 64.25 - - - - 2701.85 -
2023-03-05 592.93 - 57.94 - - - - 2436.55 -
2023-03-12 548.15 - 53.56 - - - - 2252.53 -
2023-03-19 446.95 - 43.67 - - - - 1836.71 -
2023-03-26 240.76 - 23.52 - - - - 989.43 -
2023-04-02 384.57 - 37.58 - - - - 1580.36 -
2023-04-09 298.18 - 29.13 - - - - 1225.40 -
2023-04-16 209.56 - 20.47 - - - - 861.24 -
2023-04-23 224.15 - 21.90 - - - - 921.18 -
2023-04-30 204.03 - 19.93 - - - - 838.50 -
2023-05-07 199.27 - 19.47 - - - - 818.95 -
2023-05-14 172.20 - 16.82 - - - - 707.73 -
2023-05-21 146.11 - 14.27 - - - - 600.51 -
2023-05-28 159.27 - 15.56 - - - - 654.56 -
2023-06-04 152.86 - 14.93 - - - - 628.26 -
2023-06-11 144.41 - 14.10 - - - - 593.52 -
2023-06-18 133.82 - 13.07 - - - - 550.01 -
2023-06-25 105.91 - 10.34 - - - - 435.32 -
2023-07-02 114.27 - 11.16 - - - - 469.68 -
2023-07-09 102.79 - 10.04 - - - - 422.51 -
2023-07-16 104.67 - 10.22 - - - - 430.21 -
2023-07-23 86.22 - 8.42 - - - - 354.41 -
2023-07-30 78.12 - 7.63 - - - - 321.12 -
2023-08-06 92.29 - 9.01 - - - - 379.38 -
2023-08-13 77.81 - 7.60 - - - - 319.87 -
2023-08-20 63.19 - 6.17 - - - - 259.80 -
2023-08-27 70.71 - 6.90 - - - - 290.70 -
2023-09-03 62.74 - 6.12 - - - - 257.94 -
2023-09-10 67.66 - 6.60 - - - - 278.14 -
2023-09-17 70.51 - 6.88 - - - - 289.88 -
2023-09-24 66.02 - 6.44 - - - - 271.41 -
2023-10-01 67.36 - 6.57 - - - - 276.92 -