Prediction 261

Dengue Sprint2425 R Temporal Quantitative Weekly ADM 1
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Modelo Model 2 - Weekly and yearly (rw1) components
Autor Marcio Maciel Bastos

Descrição:

The model is founded on a structural decomposition designed for modeling counting series, employing a Poisson distribution. The log intensity is defined by the sum of weekly and yearly components, where the first one is defined as a AR(1) process and the last one follows a RW(1) process.


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date pred lower_95 lower_90 lower_80 lower_50 upper_50 upper_80 upper_90 upper_95
2022-06-26 2293.36 - 2251.70 - - - - 2335.59 -
2022-07-03 1891.12 - 1854.00 - - - - 1928.79 -
2022-07-10 1912.42 - 1875.05 - - - - 1950.34 -
2022-07-17 1274.47 - 1244.94 - - - - 1304.51 -
2022-07-24 1316.06 - 1286.00 - - - - 1346.64 -
2022-07-31 1106.15 - 1078.91 - - - - 1133.89 -
2022-08-07 1078.30 - 1051.45 - - - - 1105.66 -
2022-08-14 1052.81 - 1026.32 - - - - 1079.81 -
2022-08-21 878.94 - 854.99 - - - - 903.39 -
2022-08-28 764.28 - 742.10 - - - - 786.94 -
2022-09-04 751.51 - 729.54 - - - - 773.96 -
2022-09-11 623.72 - 603.88 - - - - 644.04 -
2022-09-18 647.25 - 627.01 - - - - 667.98 -
2022-09-25 583.55 - 564.42 - - - - 603.16 -
2022-10-02 492.56 - 475.10 - - - - 510.48 -
2022-10-09 538.06 - 519.75 - - - - 556.85 -
2022-10-16 447.88 - 431.31 - - - - 464.91 -
2022-10-23 369.22 - 354.27 - - - - 384.62 -
2022-10-30 450.17 - 433.55 - - - - 467.26 -
2022-11-06 454.07 - 437.38 - - - - 471.23 -
2022-11-13 497.45 - 479.91 - - - - 515.46 -
2022-11-20 558.06 - 539.38 - - - - 577.20 -
2022-11-27 516.14 - 498.24 - - - - 534.50 -
2022-12-04 578.51 - 559.47 - - - - 598.03 -
2022-12-11 490.60 - 473.19 - - - - 508.48 -
2022-12-18 440.05 - 423.63 - - - - 456.93 -
2022-12-25 377.05 - 362.60 - - - - 391.91 -
2023-01-01 839.55 - 168.69 - - - - 2587.98 -
2023-01-08 938.01 - 188.48 - - - - 2891.44 -
2023-01-15 1100.16 - 221.07 - - - - 3391.20 -
2023-01-22 1341.48 - 269.58 - - - - 4134.98 -
2023-01-29 1583.32 - 318.19 - - - - 4880.33 -
2023-02-05 1790.19 - 359.77 - - - - 5517.92 -
2023-02-12 2190.06 - 440.15 - - - - 6750.33 -
2023-02-19 1851.10 - 372.01 - - - - 5705.66 -
2023-02-26 2805.38 - 563.83 - - - - 8646.79 -
2023-03-05 2880.56 - 578.94 - - - - 8878.50 -
2023-03-12 2632.05 - 528.99 - - - - 8112.58 -
2023-03-19 3004.67 - 603.89 - - - - 9261.01 -
2023-03-26 3513.24 - 706.11 - - - - 10828.45 -
2023-04-02 4668.26 - 938.28 - - - - 14388.27 -
2023-04-09 5214.43 - 1048.05 - - - - 16071.57 -
2023-04-16 4625.17 - 929.61 - - - - 14255.46 -
2023-04-23 5109.98 - 1027.06 - - - - 15749.68 -
2023-04-30 5944.67 - 1194.84 - - - - 18322.22 -
2023-05-07 5599.93 - 1125.55 - - - - 17259.73 -
2023-05-14 5180.11 - 1041.16 - - - - 15965.81 -
2023-05-21 5531.42 - 1111.77 - - - - 17048.58 -
2023-05-28 4242.95 - 852.79 - - - - 13077.43 -
2023-06-04 4033.47 - 810.68 - - - - 12431.82 -
2023-06-11 3981.84 - 800.30 - - - - 12272.68 -
2023-06-18 3035.73 - 610.13 - - - - 9356.74 -
2023-06-25 2947.50 - 592.38 - - - - 9084.92 -
2023-07-02 2430.53 - 488.47 - - - - 7491.57 -
2023-07-09 2457.91 - 493.97 - - - - 7575.97 -
2023-07-16 1637.99 - 329.16 - - - - 5048.92 -
2023-07-23 1691.45 - 339.91 - - - - 5213.68 -
2023-07-30 1421.66 - 285.68 - - - - 4382.17 -
2023-08-06 1385.87 - 278.49 - - - - 4271.86 -
2023-08-13 1353.11 - 271.90 - - - - 4170.90 -
2023-08-20 1129.65 - 226.99 - - - - 3482.18 -
2023-08-27 982.27 - 197.36 - - - - 3027.95 -
2023-09-03 965.86 - 194.07 - - - - 2977.38 -
2023-09-10 801.62 - 161.05 - - - - 2471.18 -
2023-09-17 831.87 - 167.13 - - - - 2564.41 -
2023-09-24 750.00 - 150.68 - - - - 2312.08 -
2023-10-01 633.05 - 127.17 - - - - 1951.62 -