Prediction 262

Dengue Sprint2425 R Temporal Quantitative Weekly ADM 1
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Modelo Model 2 - Weekly and yearly (rw1) components
Autor Marcio Maciel Bastos

Descrição:

The model is founded on a structural decomposition designed for modeling counting series, employing a Poisson distribution. The log intensity is defined by the sum of weekly and yearly components, where the first one is defined as a AR(1) process and the last one follows a RW(1) process.


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date pred lower_95 lower_90 lower_80 lower_50 upper_50 upper_80 upper_90 upper_95
2022-06-26 2285.94 - 2242.28 - - - - 2330.24 -
2022-07-03 1227.07 - 1195.76 - - - - 1258.97 -
2022-07-10 1598.06 - 1562.07 - - - - 1634.66 -
2022-07-17 1393.39 - 1359.94 - - - - 1427.44 -
2022-07-24 1138.33 - 1108.29 - - - - 1168.96 -
2022-07-31 1033.21 - 1004.67 - - - - 1062.34 -
2022-08-07 1033.13 - 1004.59 - - - - 1062.26 -
2022-08-14 987.24 - 959.38 - - - - 1015.70 -
2022-08-21 768.88 - 744.45 - - - - 793.89 -
2022-08-28 761.87 - 737.56 - - - - 786.77 -
2022-09-04 672.77 - 649.99 - - - - 696.14 -
2022-09-11 937.57 - 910.46 - - - - 965.29 -
2022-09-18 964.50 - 936.98 - - - - 992.61 -
2022-09-25 1002.56 - 974.47 - - - - 1031.25 -
2022-10-02 863.11 - 837.14 - - - - 889.66 -
2022-10-09 1056.18 - 1027.30 - - - - 1085.65 -
2022-10-16 1204.43 - 1173.48 - - - - 1235.98 -
2022-10-23 1249.71 - 1218.14 - - - - 1281.87 -
2022-10-30 1120.62 - 1090.83 - - - - 1151.02 -
2022-11-06 1314.63 - 1282.21 - - - - 1347.66 -
2022-11-13 1416.16 - 1382.42 - - - - 1450.50 -
2022-11-20 1557.54 - 1522.04 - - - - 1593.64 -
2022-11-27 1582.46 - 1546.66 - - - - 1618.87 -
2022-12-04 2321.53 - 2277.50 - - - - 2366.20 -
2022-12-11 1903.20 - 1863.67 - - - - 1943.35 -
2022-12-18 1617.22 - 1581.00 - - - - 1654.05 -
2022-12-25 1902.59 - 1865.58 - - - - 1940.15 -
2023-01-01 5333.82 - 1019.97 - - - - 16827.45 -
2023-01-08 5982.93 - 1144.10 - - - - 18875.24 -
2023-01-15 6612.85 - 1264.57 - - - - 20862.49 -
2023-01-22 7289.46 - 1393.96 - - - - 22997.04 -
2023-01-29 7349.93 - 1405.53 - - - - 23187.81 -
2023-02-05 8250.24 - 1577.70 - - - - 26028.05 -
2023-02-12 9269.73 - 1772.67 - - - - 29244.30 -
2023-02-19 9915.51 - 1896.17 - - - - 31281.59 -
2023-02-26 10041.18 - 1920.20 - - - - 31678.03 -
2023-03-05 10464.26 - 2001.11 - - - - 33012.75 -
2023-03-12 11154.91 - 2133.19 - - - - 35191.57 -
2023-03-19 10344.34 - 1978.18 - - - - 32634.42 -
2023-03-26 9929.11 - 1898.77 - - - - 31324.47 -
2023-04-02 10758.11 - 2057.31 - - - - 33939.76 -
2023-04-09 8390.93 - 1604.60 - - - - 26471.94 -
2023-04-16 10064.80 - 1924.72 - - - - 31752.56 -
2023-04-23 9701.43 - 1855.23 - - - - 30606.20 -
2023-04-30 9395.37 - 1796.70 - - - - 29640.65 -
2023-05-07 8981.19 - 1717.49 - - - - 28334.01 -
2023-05-14 8428.09 - 1611.72 - - - - 26589.12 -
2023-05-21 6356.75 - 1215.59 - - - - 20054.56 -
2023-05-28 5700.48 - 1090.09 - - - - 17984.17 -
2023-06-04 5387.83 - 1030.30 - - - - 16997.85 -
2023-06-11 4077.20 - 779.65 - - - - 12863.12 -
2023-06-18 3457.50 - 661.14 - - - - 10908.13 -
2023-06-25 2957.59 - 565.52 - - - - 9331.17 -
2023-07-02 1587.60 - 303.52 - - - - 5009.17 -
2023-07-09 2067.59 - 395.31 - - - - 6523.44 -
2023-07-16 1802.79 - 344.67 - - - - 5688.04 -
2023-07-23 1472.78 - 281.56 - - - - 4646.96 -
2023-07-30 1336.78 - 255.55 - - - - 4217.89 -
2023-08-06 1336.68 - 255.54 - - - - 4217.58 -
2023-08-13 1277.30 - 244.18 - - - - 4030.26 -
2023-08-20 994.79 - 190.15 - - - - 3138.98 -
2023-08-27 985.72 - 188.42 - - - - 3110.38 -
2023-09-03 870.44 - 166.37 - - - - 2746.71 -
2023-09-10 1213.05 - 231.89 - - - - 3827.55 -
2023-09-17 1247.88 - 238.55 - - - - 3937.45 -
2023-09-24 1297.13 - 247.97 - - - - 4092.80 -
2023-10-01 1116.70 - 213.47 - - - - 3523.61 -
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