Prediction 263

Dengue Sprint2425 R Temporal Quantitative Weekly ADM 1
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Modelo Model 2 - Weekly and yearly (rw1) components
Autor Marcio Maciel Bastos

Descrição:

The model is founded on a structural decomposition designed for modeling counting series, employing a Poisson distribution. The log intensity is defined by the sum of weekly and yearly components, where the first one is defined as a AR(1) process and the last one follows a RW(1) process.


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date pred lower_95 lower_90 lower_80 lower_50 upper_50 upper_80 upper_90 upper_95
2022-06-26 1008.34 - 989.79 - - - - 1027.14 -
2022-07-03 765.65 - 749.68 - - - - 781.87 -
2022-07-10 565.49 - 551.92 - - - - 579.31 -
2022-07-17 377.90 - 366.93 - - - - 389.11 -
2022-07-24 381.35 - 370.33 - - - - 392.61 -
2022-07-31 301.01 - 291.28 - - - - 310.98 -
2022-08-07 321.75 - 311.67 - - - - 332.06 -
2022-08-14 303.00 - 293.24 - - - - 313.00 -
2022-08-21 338.42 - 328.08 - - - - 349.01 -
2022-08-28 282.03 - 272.62 - - - - 291.67 -
2022-09-04 312.28 - 302.36 - - - - 322.43 -
2022-09-11 334.75 - 324.46 - - - - 345.28 -
2022-09-18 360.80 - 350.10 - - - - 371.74 -
2022-09-25 342.70 - 332.28 - - - - 353.35 -
2022-10-02 350.13 - 339.59 - - - - 360.90 -
2022-10-09 322.35 - 312.27 - - - - 332.68 -
2022-10-16 385.09 - 374.01 - - - - 396.40 -
2022-10-23 366.45 - 355.66 - - - - 377.48 -
2022-10-30 398.12 - 386.84 - - - - 409.63 -
2022-11-06 437.27 - 425.43 - - - - 449.36 -
2022-11-13 470.58 - 458.27 - - - - 483.13 -
2022-11-20 604.08 - 590.02 - - - - 618.39 -
2022-11-27 622.69 - 608.40 - - - - 637.23 -
2022-12-04 779.61 - 763.49 - - - - 795.99 -
2022-12-11 846.25 - 829.39 - - - - 863.36 -
2022-12-18 906.59 - 889.09 - - - - 924.34 -
2022-12-25 976.56 - 959.00 - - - - 994.36 -
2023-01-01 6348.46 - 103.84 - - - - 36729.37 -
2023-01-08 8334.39 - 136.32 - - - - 48219.02 -
2023-01-15 9503.39 - 155.44 - - - - 54982.31 -
2023-01-22 10927.20 - 178.73 - - - - 63219.76 -
2023-01-29 10657.51 - 174.32 - - - - 61659.46 -
2023-02-05 14791.10 - 241.93 - - - - 85574.54 -
2023-02-12 18494.76 - 302.52 - - - - 107002.10 -
2023-02-19 17931.32 - 293.30 - - - - 103742.32 -
2023-02-26 20305.12 - 332.13 - - - - 117475.99 -
2023-03-05 25842.38 - 422.70 - - - - 149511.93 -
2023-03-12 25459.34 - 416.44 - - - - 147295.82 -
2023-03-19 27428.94 - 448.65 - - - - 158691.00 -
2023-03-26 25459.88 - 416.44 - - - - 147298.99 -
2023-04-02 32876.72 - 537.76 - - - - 190209.28 -
2023-04-09 31636.96 - 517.48 - - - - 183036.54 -
2023-04-16 28773.80 - 470.65 - - - - 166471.71 -
2023-04-23 28089.49 - 459.46 - - - - 162512.62 -
2023-04-30 25578.76 - 418.39 - - - - 147986.72 -
2023-05-07 23257.43 - 380.42 - - - - 134556.68 -
2023-05-14 20369.85 - 333.19 - - - - 117850.50 -
2023-05-21 14276.41 - 233.52 - - - - 82596.79 -
2023-05-28 8752.75 - 143.16 - - - - 50639.42 -
2023-06-04 8974.36 - 146.79 - - - - 51921.56 -
2023-06-11 6369.53 - 104.18 - - - - 36851.24 -
2023-06-18 3980.51 - 65.10 - - - - 23029.53 -
2023-06-25 3302.51 - 54.01 - - - - 19106.94 -
2023-07-02 2507.67 - 41.01 - - - - 14508.38 -
2023-07-09 1852.10 - 30.29 - - - - 10715.56 -
2023-07-16 1237.71 - 20.24 - - - - 7160.99 -
2023-07-23 1248.99 - 20.42 - - - - 7226.25 -
2023-07-30 985.86 - 16.12 - - - - 5703.93 -
2023-08-06 1053.79 - 17.23 - - - - 6096.92 -
2023-08-13 992.38 - 16.23 - - - - 5741.64 -
2023-08-20 1108.41 - 18.13 - - - - 6412.91 -
2023-08-27 923.70 - 15.10 - - - - 5344.27 -
2023-09-03 1022.77 - 16.72 - - - - 5917.45 -
2023-09-10 1096.38 - 17.93 - - - - 6343.34 -
2023-09-17 1181.69 - 19.32 - - - - 6836.88 -
2023-09-24 1122.41 - 18.35 - - - - 6493.91 -
2023-10-01 1146.74 - 18.75 - - - - 6634.70 -