Prediction 264

Dengue Sprint2425 R Temporal Quantitative Weekly ADM 1
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Model Model 2 - Weekly and yearly (rw1) components
Author Marcio Maciel Bastos
ADM 1 Paraná

Description:

The model is founded on a structural decomposition designed for modeling counting series, employing a Poisson distribution. The log intensity is defined by the sum of weekly and yearly components, where the first one is defined as a AR(1) process and the last one follows a RW(1) process.


Show Table
date pred lower_95 lower_90 lower_80 lower_50 upper_50 upper_80 upper_90 upper_95
2022-06-26 1403.11 - 1365.46 - - - - 1441.51 -
2022-07-03 1151.14 - 1117.23 - - - - 1185.81 -
2022-07-10 978.62 - 947.48 - - - - 1010.50 -
2022-07-17 821.10 - 792.70 - - - - 850.24 -
2022-07-24 799.07 - 771.08 - - - - 827.81 -
2022-07-31 760.08 - 732.82 - - - - 788.09 -
2022-08-07 771.18 - 743.71 - - - - 799.40 -
2022-08-14 734.17 - 707.40 - - - - 761.69 -
2022-08-21 789.11 - 761.30 - - - - 817.66 -
2022-08-28 790.05 - 762.23 - - - - 818.62 -
2022-09-04 844.86 - 816.04 - - - - 874.42 -
2022-09-11 979.10 - 947.95 - - - - 1011.00 -
2022-09-18 888.31 - 858.72 - - - - 918.65 -
2022-09-25 900.64 - 870.83 - - - - 931.19 -
2022-10-02 888.91 - 859.31 - - - - 919.26 -
2022-10-09 1030.05 - 998.06 - - - - 1062.79 -
2022-10-16 955.37 - 924.62 - - - - 986.87 -
2022-10-23 1126.12 - 1092.60 - - - - 1160.40 -
2022-10-30 1138.44 - 1104.72 - - - - 1172.91 -
2022-11-06 1398.42 - 1360.85 - - - - 1436.76 -
2022-11-13 1492.18 - 1453.29 - - - - 1531.83 -
2022-11-20 1727.59 - 1685.57 - - - - 1770.39 -
2022-11-27 1782.01 - 1739.29 - - - - 1825.50 -
2022-12-04 1826.82 - 1783.53 - - - - 1870.88 -
2022-12-11 2163.03 - 2115.66 - - - - 2211.18 -
2022-12-18 2008.50 - 1962.96 - - - - 2054.81 -
2022-12-25 1396.65 - 1363.95 - - - - 1429.93 -
2023-01-01 4861.89 - 243.29 - - - - 23980.90 -
2023-01-08 6295.19 - 315.03 - - - - 31050.34 -
2023-01-15 7777.64 - 389.22 - - - - 38362.22 -
2023-01-22 10117.07 - 506.30 - - - - 49900.98 -
2023-01-29 10536.75 - 527.31 - - - - 51970.98 -
2023-02-05 13851.87 - 693.22 - - - - 68322.07 -
2023-02-12 15927.15 - 797.08 - - - - 78557.98 -
2023-02-19 17473.58 - 874.47 - - - - 86185.43 -
2023-02-26 21496.14 - 1075.79 - - - - 106025.85 -
2023-03-05 17610.67 - 881.34 - - - - 86861.54 -
2023-03-12 25682.65 - 1285.32 - - - - 126674.91 -
2023-03-19 23532.00 - 1177.68 - - - - 116067.25 -
2023-03-26 24393.29 - 1220.79 - - - - 120315.41 -
2023-04-02 24986.95 - 1250.50 - - - - 123243.49 -
2023-04-09 23015.78 - 1151.85 - - - - 113521.10 -
2023-04-16 20346.80 - 1018.27 - - - - 100356.95 -
2023-04-23 19051.03 - 953.42 - - - - 93965.82 -
2023-04-30 17374.19 - 869.50 - - - - 85695.16 -
2023-05-07 16811.91 - 841.36 - - - - 82921.81 -
2023-05-14 11621.69 - 581.60 - - - - 57322.14 -
2023-05-21 9031.70 - 451.98 - - - - 44547.57 -
2023-05-28 6121.48 - 306.34 - - - - 30193.54 -
2023-06-04 5030.88 - 251.75 - - - - 24814.36 -
2023-06-11 4297.14 - 215.03 - - - - 21195.36 -
2023-06-18 4383.65 - 219.36 - - - - 21622.07 -
2023-06-25 2847.78 - 142.49 - - - - 14046.86 -
2023-07-02 2336.38 - 116.89 - - - - 11524.49 -
2023-07-09 1986.22 - 99.37 - - - - 9797.41 -
2023-07-16 1666.52 - 83.37 - - - - 8220.52 -
2023-07-23 1621.81 - 81.13 - - - - 8000.03 -
2023-07-30 1542.68 - 77.17 - - - - 7609.71 -
2023-08-06 1565.21 - 78.30 - - - - 7720.85 -
2023-08-13 1490.10 - 74.54 - - - - 7350.37 -
2023-08-20 1601.59 - 80.12 - - - - 7900.28 -
2023-08-27 1603.51 - 80.22 - - - - 7909.77 -
2023-09-03 1714.74 - 85.78 - - - - 8458.38 -
2023-09-10 1987.20 - 99.42 - - - - 9802.22 -
2023-09-17 1802.93 - 90.20 - - - - 8893.38 -
2023-09-24 1827.96 - 91.45 - - - - 9016.80 -
2023-10-01 1804.16 - 90.26 - - - - 8899.41 -
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