Prediction 265
| Modelo | Model 2 - Weekly and yearly (rw1) components |
|---|---|
| Autor | Marcio Maciel Bastos |
Descrição:
The model is founded on a structural decomposition designed for modeling counting series, employing a Poisson distribution. The log intensity is defined by the sum of weekly and yearly components, where the first one is defined as a AR(1) process and the last one follows a RW(1) process.
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| date | pred | lower_95 | lower_90 | lower_80 | lower_50 | upper_50 | upper_80 | upper_90 | upper_95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-06-11 | 185.34 | - | 177.09 | - | - | - | - | 193.87 | - |
| 2023-06-18 | 171.74 | - | 163.87 | - | - | - | - | 179.90 | - |
| 2023-06-25 | 138.78 | - | 131.85 | - | - | - | - | 145.98 | - |
| 2023-07-02 | 153.35 | - | 145.99 | - | - | - | - | 160.98 | - |
| 2023-07-09 | 139.48 | - | 132.53 | - | - | - | - | 146.70 | - |
| 2023-07-16 | 135.12 | - | 128.30 | - | - | - | - | 142.21 | - |
| 2023-07-23 | 114.76 | - | 108.57 | - | - | - | - | 121.21 | - |
| 2023-07-30 | 105.32 | - | 99.43 | - | - | - | - | 111.47 | - |
| 2023-08-06 | 120.92 | - | 114.53 | - | - | - | - | 127.57 | - |
| 2023-08-13 | 103.63 | - | 97.80 | - | - | - | - | 109.72 | - |
| 2023-08-20 | 82.68 | - | 77.55 | - | - | - | - | 88.05 | - |
| 2023-08-27 | 93.28 | - | 87.79 | - | - | - | - | 99.03 | - |
| 2023-09-03 | 83.01 | - | 77.87 | - | - | - | - | 88.39 | - |
| 2023-09-10 | 88.28 | - | 82.96 | - | - | - | - | 93.84 | - |
| 2023-09-17 | 103.14 | - | 97.32 | - | - | - | - | 109.21 | - |
| 2023-09-24 | 104.72 | - | 98.85 | - | - | - | - | 110.85 | - |
| 2023-10-01 | 108.51 | - | 102.52 | - | - | - | - | 114.77 | - |
| 2023-10-08 | 109.52 | - | 103.50 | - | - | - | - | 115.81 | - |
| 2023-10-15 | 111.33 | - | 105.25 | - | - | - | - | 117.68 | - |
| 2023-10-22 | 98.60 | - | 92.93 | - | - | - | - | 104.53 | - |
| 2023-10-29 | 111.55 | - | 105.46 | - | - | - | - | 117.90 | - |
| 2023-11-05 | 128.92 | - | 122.29 | - | - | - | - | 135.82 | - |
| 2023-11-12 | 154.54 | - | 147.15 | - | - | - | - | 162.20 | - |
| 2023-11-19 | 180.13 | - | 172.02 | - | - | - | - | 188.51 | - |
| 2023-11-26 | 198.53 | - | 189.92 | - | - | - | - | 207.42 | - |
| 2023-12-03 | 174.17 | - | 166.22 | - | - | - | - | 182.39 | - |
| 2023-12-10 | 203.26 | - | 194.53 | - | - | - | - | 212.28 | - |
| 2023-12-17 | 199.35 | - | 190.72 | - | - | - | - | 208.26 | - |
| 2023-12-24 | 199.46 | - | 191.15 | - | - | - | - | 208.04 | - |
| 2023-12-31 | 556.63 | - | 63.18 | - | - | - | - | 2172.96 | - |
| 2024-01-07 | 579.59 | - | 65.79 | - | - | - | - | 2262.62 | - |
| 2024-01-14 | 608.40 | - | 69.06 | - | - | - | - | 2375.08 | - |
| 2024-01-21 | 937.38 | - | 106.42 | - | - | - | - | 3659.23 | - |
| 2024-01-28 | 987.35 | - | 112.09 | - | - | - | - | 3854.26 | - |
| 2024-02-04 | 1066.41 | - | 121.07 | - | - | - | - | 4162.86 | - |
| 2024-02-11 | 1214.99 | - | 137.94 | - | - | - | - | 4742.82 | - |
| 2024-02-18 | 613.45 | - | 69.63 | - | - | - | - | 2394.78 | - |
| 2024-02-25 | 1253.12 | - | 142.27 | - | - | - | - | 4891.68 | - |
| 2024-03-03 | 1134.05 | - | 128.75 | - | - | - | - | 4426.90 | - |
| 2024-03-10 | 1035.04 | - | 117.50 | - | - | - | - | 4040.42 | - |
| 2024-03-17 | 859.47 | - | 97.57 | - | - | - | - | 3355.10 | - |
| 2024-03-24 | 475.57 | - | 53.98 | - | - | - | - | 1856.60 | - |
| 2024-03-31 | 741.26 | - | 84.15 | - | - | - | - | 2893.66 | - |
| 2024-04-07 | 589.72 | - | 66.94 | - | - | - | - | 2302.15 | - |
| 2024-04-14 | 425.26 | - | 48.27 | - | - | - | - | 1660.22 | - |
| 2024-04-21 | 454.72 | - | 51.61 | - | - | - | - | 1775.18 | - |
| 2024-04-28 | 418.74 | - | 47.53 | - | - | - | - | 1634.74 | - |
| 2024-05-05 | 394.28 | - | 44.75 | - | - | - | - | 1539.27 | - |
| 2024-05-12 | 361.03 | - | 40.97 | - | - | - | - | 1409.49 | - |
| 2024-05-19 | 284.50 | - | 32.28 | - | - | - | - | 1110.77 | - |
| 2024-05-26 | 321.37 | - | 36.47 | - | - | - | - | 1254.68 | - |
| 2024-06-02 | 305.16 | - | 34.63 | - | - | - | - | 1191.41 | - |
| 2024-06-09 | 283.72 | - | 32.19 | - | - | - | - | 1107.75 | - |
| 2024-06-16 | 262.91 | - | 29.83 | - | - | - | - | 1026.50 | - |
| 2024-06-23 | 212.45 | - | 24.10 | - | - | - | - | 829.53 | - |
| 2024-06-30 | 234.75 | - | 26.63 | - | - | - | - | 916.58 | - |
| 2024-07-07 | 213.52 | - | 24.22 | - | - | - | - | 833.73 | - |
| 2024-07-14 | 206.84 | - | 23.46 | - | - | - | - | 807.65 | - |
| 2024-07-21 | 175.68 | - | 19.93 | - | - | - | - | 686.00 | - |
| 2024-07-28 | 161.23 | - | 18.29 | - | - | - | - | 629.60 | - |
| 2024-08-04 | 185.11 | - | 21.00 | - | - | - | - | 722.81 | - |
| 2024-08-11 | 158.64 | - | 17.99 | - | - | - | - | 619.51 | - |
| 2024-08-18 | 126.57 | - | 14.35 | - | - | - | - | 494.30 | - |
| 2024-08-25 | 142.80 | - | 16.19 | - | - | - | - | 557.68 | - |
| 2024-09-01 | 127.07 | - | 14.41 | - | - | - | - | 496.28 | - |
| 2024-09-08 | 135.14 | - | 15.32 | - | - | - | - | 527.75 | - |
| 2024-09-15 | 157.88 | - | 17.91 | - | - | - | - | 616.54 | - |
| 2024-09-22 | 160.31 | - | 18.18 | - | - | - | - | 626.02 | - |
| 2024-09-29 | 166.11 | - | 18.84 | - | - | - | - | 648.68 | - |
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