Prediction 266
| Modelo | Model 2 - Weekly and yearly (rw1) components |
|---|---|
| Autor | Marcio Maciel Bastos |
Descrição:
The model is founded on a structural decomposition designed for modeling counting series, employing a Poisson distribution. The log intensity is defined by the sum of weekly and yearly components, where the first one is defined as a AR(1) process and the last one follows a RW(1) process.
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| date | pred | lower_95 | lower_90 | lower_80 | lower_50 | upper_50 | upper_80 | upper_90 | upper_95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-06-11 | 1168.99 | - | 1147.27 | - | - | - | - | 1191.01 | - |
| 2023-06-18 | 891.31 | - | 873.55 | - | - | - | - | 909.33 | - |
| 2023-06-25 | 939.57 | - | 921.11 | - | - | - | - | 958.30 | - |
| 2023-07-02 | 678.50 | - | 663.87 | - | - | - | - | 693.37 | - |
| 2023-07-09 | 745.47 | - | 729.85 | - | - | - | - | 761.35 | - |
| 2023-07-16 | 528.73 | - | 516.39 | - | - | - | - | 541.30 | - |
| 2023-07-23 | 528.63 | - | 516.29 | - | - | - | - | 541.20 | - |
| 2023-07-30 | 452.03 | - | 440.89 | - | - | - | - | 463.37 | - |
| 2023-08-06 | 428.19 | - | 417.44 | - | - | - | - | 439.14 | - |
| 2023-08-13 | 427.47 | - | 416.73 | - | - | - | - | 438.41 | - |
| 2023-08-20 | 315.94 | - | 307.07 | - | - | - | - | 325.00 | - |
| 2023-08-27 | 265.37 | - | 257.40 | - | - | - | - | 273.53 | - |
| 2023-09-03 | 263.60 | - | 255.66 | - | - | - | - | 271.73 | - |
| 2023-09-10 | 223.37 | - | 216.18 | - | - | - | - | 230.74 | - |
| 2023-09-17 | 242.22 | - | 234.67 | - | - | - | - | 249.94 | - |
| 2023-09-24 | 221.56 | - | 214.40 | - | - | - | - | 228.89 | - |
| 2023-10-01 | 188.13 | - | 181.64 | - | - | - | - | 194.80 | - |
| 2023-10-08 | 195.36 | - | 188.72 | - | - | - | - | 202.18 | - |
| 2023-10-15 | 163.36 | - | 157.37 | - | - | - | - | 169.51 | - |
| 2023-10-22 | 136.54 | - | 131.14 | - | - | - | - | 142.10 | - |
| 2023-10-29 | 163.01 | - | 157.03 | - | - | - | - | 169.15 | - |
| 2023-11-05 | 157.99 | - | 152.12 | - | - | - | - | 164.02 | - |
| 2023-11-12 | 186.00 | - | 179.55 | - | - | - | - | 192.63 | - |
| 2023-11-19 | 186.85 | - | 180.38 | - | - | - | - | 193.50 | - |
| 2023-11-26 | 174.30 | - | 168.08 | - | - | - | - | 180.68 | - |
| 2023-12-03 | 200.93 | - | 194.17 | - | - | - | - | 207.86 | - |
| 2023-12-10 | 169.48 | - | 163.36 | - | - | - | - | 175.76 | - |
| 2023-12-17 | 147.70 | - | 142.06 | - | - | - | - | 153.52 | - |
| 2023-12-24 | 134.21 | - | 129.05 | - | - | - | - | 139.52 | - |
| 2023-12-31 | 333.35 | - | 62.34 | - | - | - | - | 1062.23 | - |
| 2024-01-07 | 367.45 | - | 68.72 | - | - | - | - | 1170.87 | - |
| 2024-01-14 | 415.40 | - | 77.69 | - | - | - | - | 1323.63 | - |
| 2024-01-21 | 523.00 | - | 97.82 | - | - | - | - | 1666.46 | - |
| 2024-01-28 | 616.75 | - | 115.36 | - | - | - | - | 1965.13 | - |
| 2024-02-04 | 697.28 | - | 130.43 | - | - | - | - | 2221.70 | - |
| 2024-02-11 | 845.74 | - | 158.20 | - | - | - | - | 2694.71 | - |
| 2024-02-18 | 702.08 | - | 131.32 | - | - | - | - | 2236.99 | - |
| 2024-02-25 | 1080.05 | - | 202.04 | - | - | - | - | 3441.22 | - |
| 2024-03-03 | 1170.73 | - | 219.00 | - | - | - | - | 3730.12 | - |
| 2024-03-10 | 1075.83 | - | 201.25 | - | - | - | - | 3427.78 | - |
| 2024-03-17 | 1221.42 | - | 228.49 | - | - | - | - | 3891.63 | - |
| 2024-03-24 | 1379.35 | - | 258.03 | - | - | - | - | 4394.79 | - |
| 2024-03-31 | 1779.75 | - | 332.94 | - | - | - | - | 5670.47 | - |
| 2024-04-07 | 2010.87 | - | 376.18 | - | - | - | - | 6406.82 | - |
| 2024-04-14 | 1771.64 | - | 331.42 | - | - | - | - | 5644.64 | - |
| 2024-04-21 | 1948.46 | - | 364.50 | - | - | - | - | 6207.98 | - |
| 2024-04-28 | 2247.78 | - | 420.50 | - | - | - | - | 7161.61 | - |
| 2024-05-05 | 2100.61 | - | 392.97 | - | - | - | - | 6692.75 | - |
| 2024-05-12 | 1954.83 | - | 365.69 | - | - | - | - | 6228.27 | - |
| 2024-05-19 | 2091.51 | - | 391.26 | - | - | - | - | 6663.75 | - |
| 2024-05-26 | 1623.52 | - | 303.71 | - | - | - | - | 5172.73 | - |
| 2024-06-02 | 1514.58 | - | 283.33 | - | - | - | - | 4825.62 | - |
| 2024-06-09 | 1531.82 | - | 286.55 | - | - | - | - | 4880.58 | - |
| 2024-06-16 | 1167.95 | - | 218.48 | - | - | - | - | 3721.28 | - |
| 2024-06-23 | 1231.19 | - | 230.31 | - | - | - | - | 3922.77 | - |
| 2024-06-30 | 889.09 | - | 166.31 | - | - | - | - | 2832.84 | - |
| 2024-07-07 | 976.85 | - | 182.73 | - | - | - | - | 3112.44 | - |
| 2024-07-14 | 692.84 | - | 129.59 | - | - | - | - | 2207.58 | - |
| 2024-07-21 | 692.71 | - | 129.57 | - | - | - | - | 2207.16 | - |
| 2024-07-28 | 592.33 | - | 110.79 | - | - | - | - | 1887.33 | - |
| 2024-08-04 | 561.09 | - | 104.95 | - | - | - | - | 1787.81 | - |
| 2024-08-11 | 560.14 | - | 104.77 | - | - | - | - | 1784.81 | - |
| 2024-08-18 | 414.00 | - | 77.43 | - | - | - | - | 1319.20 | - |
| 2024-08-25 | 347.74 | - | 65.03 | - | - | - | - | 1108.08 | - |
| 2024-09-01 | 345.42 | - | 64.60 | - | - | - | - | 1100.69 | - |
| 2024-09-08 | 292.70 | - | 54.74 | - | - | - | - | 932.71 | - |
| 2024-09-15 | 317.39 | - | 59.36 | - | - | - | - | 1011.40 | - |
| 2024-09-22 | 290.32 | - | 54.29 | - | - | - | - | 925.14 | - |
| 2024-09-29 | 246.53 | - | 46.10 | - | - | - | - | 785.61 | - |
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