Prediction 267
| Modelo | Model 2 - Weekly and yearly (rw1) components |
|---|---|
| Autor | Marcio Maciel Bastos |
Descrição:
The model is founded on a structural decomposition designed for modeling counting series, employing a Poisson distribution. The log intensity is defined by the sum of weekly and yearly components, where the first one is defined as a AR(1) process and the last one follows a RW(1) process.
Mostrar Tabela
| date | pred | lower_95 | lower_90 | lower_80 | lower_50 | upper_50 | upper_80 | upper_90 | upper_95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-06-11 | 1277.20 | - | 1256.23 | - | - | - | - | 1298.42 | - |
| 2023-06-18 | 1083.19 | - | 1064.26 | - | - | - | - | 1102.37 | - |
| 2023-06-25 | 971.94 | - | 954.22 | - | - | - | - | 989.91 | - |
| 2023-07-02 | 582.24 | - | 569.10 | - | - | - | - | 595.59 | - |
| 2023-07-09 | 691.00 | - | 676.51 | - | - | - | - | 705.72 | - |
| 2023-07-16 | 606.58 | - | 593.15 | - | - | - | - | 620.25 | - |
| 2023-07-23 | 486.33 | - | 474.48 | - | - | - | - | 498.41 | - |
| 2023-07-30 | 490.05 | - | 478.14 | - | - | - | - | 502.17 | - |
| 2023-08-06 | 361.78 | - | 351.72 | - | - | - | - | 372.05 | - |
| 2023-08-13 | 391.85 | - | 381.34 | - | - | - | - | 402.57 | - |
| 2023-08-20 | 307.54 | - | 298.34 | - | - | - | - | 316.94 | - |
| 2023-08-27 | 379.64 | - | 369.31 | - | - | - | - | 390.18 | - |
| 2023-09-03 | 307.16 | - | 297.97 | - | - | - | - | 316.56 | - |
| 2023-09-10 | 417.03 | - | 406.15 | - | - | - | - | 428.12 | - |
| 2023-09-17 | 389.51 | - | 379.04 | - | - | - | - | 400.20 | - |
| 2023-09-24 | 453.02 | - | 441.63 | - | - | - | - | 464.63 | - |
| 2023-10-01 | 388.93 | - | 378.47 | - | - | - | - | 399.61 | - |
| 2023-10-08 | 406.95 | - | 396.22 | - | - | - | - | 417.89 | - |
| 2023-10-15 | 479.64 | - | 467.88 | - | - | - | - | 491.62 | - |
| 2023-10-22 | 469.47 | - | 457.85 | - | - | - | - | 481.30 | - |
| 2023-10-29 | 460.44 | - | 448.95 | - | - | - | - | 472.16 | - |
| 2023-11-05 | 540.23 | - | 527.65 | - | - | - | - | 553.03 | - |
| 2023-11-12 | 550.84 | - | 538.12 | - | - | - | - | 563.78 | - |
| 2023-11-19 | 654.06 | - | 640.03 | - | - | - | - | 668.32 | - |
| 2023-11-26 | 587.63 | - | 574.43 | - | - | - | - | 601.05 | - |
| 2023-12-03 | 874.19 | - | 857.55 | - | - | - | - | 891.06 | - |
| 2023-12-10 | 740.81 | - | 725.73 | - | - | - | - | 756.13 | - |
| 2023-12-17 | 641.18 | - | 627.31 | - | - | - | - | 655.28 | - |
| 2023-12-24 | 753.71 | - | 739.20 | - | - | - | - | 768.43 | - |
| 2023-12-31 | 2233.06 | - | 404.22 | - | - | - | - | 7222.02 | - |
| 2024-01-07 | 2364.23 | - | 427.96 | - | - | - | - | 7646.23 | - |
| 2024-01-14 | 2743.34 | - | 496.59 | - | - | - | - | 8872.29 | - |
| 2024-01-21 | 3028.84 | - | 548.28 | - | - | - | - | 9795.62 | - |
| 2024-01-28 | 3089.08 | - | 559.18 | - | - | - | - | 9990.42 | - |
| 2024-02-04 | 3259.01 | - | 589.94 | - | - | - | - | 10539.99 | - |
| 2024-02-11 | 3723.01 | - | 673.94 | - | - | - | - | 12040.57 | - |
| 2024-02-18 | 4078.94 | - | 738.37 | - | - | - | - | 13191.67 | - |
| 2024-02-25 | 4129.48 | - | 747.52 | - | - | - | - | 13355.14 | - |
| 2024-03-03 | 4303.19 | - | 778.97 | - | - | - | - | 13916.90 | - |
| 2024-03-10 | 4595.44 | - | 831.88 | - | - | - | - | 14862.07 | - |
| 2024-03-17 | 4347.48 | - | 786.99 | - | - | - | - | 14060.14 | - |
| 2024-03-24 | 4087.08 | - | 739.85 | - | - | - | - | 13218.01 | - |
| 2024-03-31 | 4338.05 | - | 785.28 | - | - | - | - | 14029.65 | - |
| 2024-04-07 | 3514.12 | - | 636.12 | - | - | - | - | 11365.04 | - |
| 2024-04-14 | 4217.18 | - | 763.40 | - | - | - | - | 13638.75 | - |
| 2024-04-21 | 4040.08 | - | 731.34 | - | - | - | - | 13066.00 | - |
| 2024-04-28 | 3937.73 | - | 712.81 | - | - | - | - | 12735.00 | - |
| 2024-05-05 | 3730.19 | - | 675.24 | - | - | - | - | 12063.79 | - |
| 2024-05-12 | 3432.61 | - | 621.37 | - | - | - | - | 11101.41 | - |
| 2024-05-19 | 2619.67 | - | 474.21 | - | - | - | - | 8472.35 | - |
| 2024-05-26 | 2312.21 | - | 418.55 | - | - | - | - | 7478.01 | - |
| 2024-06-02 | 2151.93 | - | 389.53 | - | - | - | - | 6959.65 | - |
| 2024-06-09 | 1677.54 | - | 303.65 | - | - | - | - | 5425.47 | - |
| 2024-06-16 | 1422.73 | - | 257.52 | - | - | - | - | 4601.39 | - |
| 2024-06-23 | 1276.61 | - | 231.07 | - | - | - | - | 4128.83 | - |
| 2024-06-30 | 764.74 | - | 138.41 | - | - | - | - | 2473.44 | - |
| 2024-07-07 | 907.60 | - | 164.27 | - | - | - | - | 2935.44 | - |
| 2024-07-14 | 796.72 | - | 144.20 | - | - | - | - | 2576.87 | - |
| 2024-07-21 | 638.78 | - | 115.61 | - | - | - | - | 2066.07 | - |
| 2024-07-28 | 643.65 | - | 116.49 | - | - | - | - | 2081.83 | - |
| 2024-08-04 | 475.18 | - | 85.99 | - | - | - | - | 1536.99 | - |
| 2024-08-11 | 514.68 | - | 93.14 | - | - | - | - | 1664.73 | - |
| 2024-08-18 | 403.93 | - | 73.09 | - | - | - | - | 1306.57 | - |
| 2024-08-25 | 498.64 | - | 90.24 | - | - | - | - | 1612.86 | - |
| 2024-09-01 | 403.44 | - | 73.01 | - | - | - | - | 1304.98 | - |
| 2024-09-08 | 547.75 | - | 99.13 | - | - | - | - | 1771.68 | - |
| 2024-09-15 | 511.61 | - | 92.59 | - | - | - | - | 1654.80 | - |
| 2024-09-22 | 595.02 | - | 107.69 | - | - | - | - | 1924.55 | - |
| 2024-09-29 | 510.85 | - | 92.45 | - | - | - | - | 1652.32 | - |
Bem-vindo ao Painel de Previsões Mosqlimate
Intervalo de Confiança
Para alternar os limites do Intervalo de Confiança da Previsão no gráfico, clique na legenda da Previsão
ou linha
Limites do Intervalo
Quando o Intervalo de Confiança estiver ativo, a Previsão exibirá os limites de 50% e 90% (superior e inferior)
