Prediction 2678
| Model | LNCC-AR_p-2025-1 |
|---|---|
| Author | Americo Cunha Jr |
| ADM 1 | Santa Catarina |
Description:
Validation test 1 for UF=SC (Model1 AR_p)
Show Table
| date | pred | lower_95 | lower_90 | lower_80 | lower_50 | upper_50 | upper_80 | upper_90 | upper_95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-10-09 | 14.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 6.0 | 32.0 | 69.0 | 107.0 | 156.0 |
| 2022-10-16 | 13.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 6.0 | 30.0 | 65.0 | 101.0 | 148.0 |
| 2022-10-23 | 13.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 6.0 | 30.0 | 64.0 | 100.0 | 148.0 |
| 2022-10-30 | 13.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 6.0 | 31.0 | 68.0 | 105.0 | 156.0 |
| 2022-11-06 | 14.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 6.0 | 35.0 | 76.0 | 117.0 | 174.0 |
| 2022-11-13 | 15.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 6.0 | 38.0 | 84.0 | 130.0 | 193.0 |
| 2022-11-20 | 17.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 7.0 | 40.0 | 88.0 | 136.0 | 200.0 |
| 2022-11-27 | 17.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 7.0 | 39.0 | 82.0 | 127.0 | 185.0 |
| 2022-12-04 | 16.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 7.0 | 34.0 | 67.0 | 105.0 | 151.0 |
| 2022-12-11 | 15.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 7.0 | 29.0 | 54.0 | 87.0 | 125.0 |
| 2022-12-18 | 16.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 8.0 | 33.0 | 62.0 | 102.0 | 151.0 |
| 2022-12-25 | 23.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 5.0 | 10.0 | 52.0 | 108.0 | 174.0 | 264.0 |
| 2023-01-01 | 37.0 | 3.0 | 5.0 | 8.0 | 16.0 | 88.0 | 192.0 | 304.0 | 461.0 |
| 2023-01-08 | 55.0 | 5.0 | 7.0 | 11.0 | 23.0 | 135.0 | 298.0 | 465.0 | 700.0 |
| 2023-01-15 | 73.0 | 6.0 | 9.0 | 14.0 | 31.0 | 179.0 | 394.0 | 610.0 | 914.0 |
| 2023-01-22 | 89.0 | 7.0 | 11.0 | 17.0 | 37.0 | 212.0 | 463.0 | 715.0 | 1069.0 |
| 2023-01-29 | 105.0 | 9.0 | 13.0 | 20.0 | 44.0 | 245.0 | 528.0 | 817.0 | 1227.0 |
| 2023-02-05 | 135.0 | 12.0 | 17.0 | 26.0 | 57.0 | 313.0 | 669.0 | 1040.0 | 1578.0 |
| 2023-02-12 | 201.0 | 18.0 | 26.0 | 39.0 | 86.0 | 467.0 | 1000.0 | 1558.0 | 2373.0 |
| 2023-02-19 | 322.0 | 28.0 | 41.0 | 64.0 | 138.0 | 757.0 | 1628.0 | 2536.0 | 3847.0 |
| 2023-02-26 | 507.0 | 45.0 | 65.0 | 102.0 | 218.0 | 1199.0 | 2583.0 | 4021.0 | 6058.0 |
| 2023-03-05 | 741.0 | 65.0 | 95.0 | 149.0 | 318.0 | 1756.0 | 3780.0 | 5885.0 | 8799.0 |
| 2023-03-12 | 987.0 | 86.0 | 126.0 | 198.0 | 422.0 | 2336.0 | 5021.0 | 7821.0 | 11629.0 |
| 2023-03-19 | 1192.0 | 103.0 | 153.0 | 240.0 | 510.0 | 2822.0 | 6049.0 | 9441.0 | 13984.0 |
| 2023-03-26 | 1312.0 | 114.0 | 169.0 | 265.0 | 560.0 | 3099.0 | 6637.0 | 10391.0 | 15341.0 |
| 2023-04-02 | 1325.0 | 114.0 | 171.0 | 268.0 | 565.0 | 3124.0 | 6689.0 | 10526.0 | 15542.0 |
| 2023-04-09 | 1257.0 | 108.0 | 162.0 | 254.0 | 536.0 | 2959.0 | 6358.0 | 10068.0 | 14905.0 |
| 2023-04-16 | 1152.0 | 99.0 | 148.0 | 232.0 | 491.0 | 2709.0 | 5853.0 | 9322.0 | 13865.0 |
| 2023-04-23 | 1054.0 | 89.0 | 135.0 | 211.0 | 448.0 | 2482.0 | 5399.0 | 8625.0 | 12913.0 |
| 2023-04-30 | 989.0 | 83.0 | 125.0 | 196.0 | 418.0 | 2335.0 | 5119.0 | 8199.0 | 12354.0 |
| 2023-05-07 | 947.0 | 78.0 | 117.0 | 185.0 | 398.0 | 2246.0 | 4956.0 | 7949.0 | 12018.0 |
| 2023-05-14 | 899.0 | 74.0 | 110.0 | 174.0 | 376.0 | 2147.0 | 4770.0 | 7663.0 | 11603.0 |
| 2023-05-21 | 818.0 | 66.0 | 98.0 | 156.0 | 340.0 | 1970.0 | 4401.0 | 7092.0 | 10748.0 |
| 2023-05-28 | 690.0 | 55.0 | 82.0 | 131.0 | 285.0 | 1678.0 | 3763.0 | 6091.0 | 9238.0 |
| 2023-06-04 | 527.0 | 42.0 | 61.0 | 99.0 | 216.0 | 1294.0 | 2916.0 | 4742.0 | 7202.0 |
| 2023-06-11 | 356.0 | 28.0 | 41.0 | 66.0 | 145.0 | 882.0 | 1999.0 | 3273.0 | 4979.0 |
| 2023-06-18 | 206.0 | 16.0 | 23.0 | 38.0 | 83.0 | 517.0 | 1178.0 | 1947.0 | 2971.0 |
| 2023-06-25 | 99.0 | 7.0 | 11.0 | 17.0 | 39.0 | 249.0 | 571.0 | 957.0 | 1469.0 |
| 2023-07-02 | 37.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 6.0 | 14.0 | 94.0 | 218.0 | 372.0 | 578.0 |
| 2023-07-09 | 13.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 32.0 | 76.0 | 131.0 | 209.0 |
| 2023-07-16 | 10.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 26.0 | 63.0 | 105.0 | 168.0 |
| 2023-07-23 | 13.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 5.0 | 38.0 | 93.0 | 154.0 | 246.0 |
| 2023-07-30 | 16.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 6.0 | 45.0 | 113.0 | 190.0 | 302.0 |
| 2023-08-06 | 15.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 6.0 | 42.0 | 105.0 | 181.0 | 290.0 |
| 2023-08-13 | 12.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 32.0 | 81.0 | 143.0 | 232.0 |
| 2023-08-20 | 9.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 23.0 | 58.0 | 105.0 | 171.0 |
| 2023-08-27 | 8.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 18.0 | 45.0 | 82.0 | 134.0 |
| 2023-09-03 | 7.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 18.0 | 44.0 | 80.0 | 131.0 |
| 2023-09-10 | 8.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 20.0 | 51.0 | 92.0 | 150.0 |
| 2023-09-17 | 8.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 22.0 | 58.0 | 102.0 | 168.0 |
| 2023-09-24 | 7.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 22.0 | 59.0 | 104.0 | 172.0 |
| 2023-10-01 | 7.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 20.0 | 54.0 | 95.0 | 159.0 |
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Confidence Interval
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Interval Bounds
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