Prediction 268
| Modelo | Model 2 - Weekly and yearly (rw1) components |
|---|---|
| Autor | Marcio Maciel Bastos |
Descrição:
The model is founded on a structural decomposition designed for modeling counting series, employing a Poisson distribution. The log intensity is defined by the sum of weekly and yearly components, where the first one is defined as a AR(1) process and the last one follows a RW(1) process.
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| date | pred | lower_95 | lower_90 | lower_80 | lower_50 | upper_50 | upper_80 | upper_90 | upper_95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-06-11 | 8500.13 | - | 8393.51 | - | - | - | - | 8607.75 | - |
| 2023-06-18 | 5314.08 | - | 5230.78 | - | - | - | - | 5398.36 | - |
| 2023-06-25 | 4945.43 | - | 4865.20 | - | - | - | - | 5026.63 | - |
| 2023-07-02 | 3783.89 | - | 3714.08 | - | - | - | - | 3854.66 | - |
| 2023-07-09 | 2909.01 | - | 2848.08 | - | - | - | - | 2970.89 | - |
| 2023-07-16 | 2050.74 | - | 1999.86 | - | - | - | - | 2102.57 | - |
| 2023-07-23 | 2035.04 | - | 1984.37 | - | - | - | - | 2086.66 | - |
| 2023-07-30 | 1675.09 | - | 1629.26 | - | - | - | - | 1721.86 | - |
| 2023-08-06 | 1682.91 | - | 1636.98 | - | - | - | - | 1729.79 | - |
| 2023-08-13 | 1588.63 | - | 1544.04 | - | - | - | - | 1634.16 | - |
| 2023-08-20 | 1712.86 | - | 1666.51 | - | - | - | - | 1760.17 | - |
| 2023-08-27 | 1459.88 | - | 1417.18 | - | - | - | - | 1503.51 | - |
| 2023-09-03 | 1634.49 | - | 1589.24 | - | - | - | - | 1680.68 | - |
| 2023-09-10 | 1747.40 | - | 1700.57 | - | - | - | - | 1795.18 | - |
| 2023-09-17 | 1871.70 | - | 1823.17 | - | - | - | - | 1921.17 | - |
| 2023-09-24 | 1784.68 | - | 1737.34 | - | - | - | - | 1832.98 | - |
| 2023-10-01 | 1831.73 | - | 1783.74 | - | - | - | - | 1880.66 | - |
| 2023-10-08 | 1724.21 | - | 1677.69 | - | - | - | - | 1771.67 | - |
| 2023-10-15 | 2024.35 | - | 1973.82 | - | - | - | - | 2075.84 | - |
| 2023-10-22 | 1895.76 | - | 1846.91 | - | - | - | - | 1945.55 | - |
| 2023-10-29 | 2039.43 | - | 1988.71 | - | - | - | - | 2091.10 | - |
| 2023-11-05 | 2256.95 | - | 2203.51 | - | - | - | - | 2311.34 | - |
| 2023-11-12 | 2465.13 | - | 2409.19 | - | - | - | - | 2522.01 | - |
| 2023-11-19 | 3025.30 | - | 2963.13 | - | - | - | - | 3088.44 | - |
| 2023-11-26 | 3130.37 | - | 3067.09 | - | - | - | - | 3194.61 | - |
| 2023-12-03 | 3840.62 | - | 3770.27 | - | - | - | - | 3911.93 | - |
| 2023-12-10 | 4203.34 | - | 4129.63 | - | - | - | - | 4278.03 | - |
| 2023-12-17 | 4437.08 | - | 4361.26 | - | - | - | - | 4513.87 | - |
| 2023-12-24 | 4937.58 | - | 4860.25 | - | - | - | - | 5015.82 | - |
| 2023-12-31 | 24709.33 | - | 406.19 | - | - | - | - | 143548.48 | - |
| 2024-01-07 | 32349.61 | - | 531.78 | - | - | - | - | 187934.41 | - |
| 2024-01-14 | 37860.65 | - | 622.38 | - | - | - | - | 219950.57 | - |
| 2024-01-21 | 44081.53 | - | 724.65 | - | - | - | - | 256090.62 | - |
| 2024-01-28 | 46425.97 | - | 763.19 | - | - | - | - | 269710.67 | - |
| 2024-02-04 | 62933.99 | - | 1034.57 | - | - | - | - | 365613.19 | - |
| 2024-02-11 | 75769.52 | - | 1245.57 | - | - | - | - | 440180.74 | - |
| 2024-02-18 | 77097.85 | - | 1267.41 | - | - | - | - | 447897.62 | - |
| 2024-02-25 | 89199.84 | - | 1466.35 | - | - | - | - | 518203.53 | - |
| 2024-03-03 | 110694.76 | - | 1819.71 | - | - | - | - | 643077.28 | - |
| 2024-03-10 | 112061.04 | - | 1842.17 | - | - | - | - | 651014.64 | - |
| 2024-03-17 | 122915.30 | - | 2020.61 | - | - | - | - | 714072.02 | - |
| 2024-03-24 | 117925.70 | - | 1938.58 | - | - | - | - | 685085.13 | - |
| 2024-03-31 | 139161.90 | - | 2287.69 | - | - | - | - | 808455.99 | - |
| 2024-04-07 | 141271.36 | - | 2322.36 | - | - | - | - | 820710.76 | - |
| 2024-04-14 | 127297.24 | - | 2092.64 | - | - | - | - | 739528.70 | - |
| 2024-04-21 | 120995.55 | - | 1989.05 | - | - | - | - | 702919.28 | - |
| 2024-04-28 | 114134.04 | - | 1876.25 | - | - | - | - | 663057.61 | - |
| 2024-05-05 | 104006.43 | - | 1709.76 | - | - | - | - | 604221.68 | - |
| 2024-05-12 | 89005.64 | - | 1463.16 | - | - | - | - | 517075.30 | - |
| 2024-05-19 | 62545.39 | - | 1028.18 | - | - | - | - | 363355.61 | - |
| 2024-05-26 | 40999.21 | - | 673.98 | - | - | - | - | 238183.97 | - |
| 2024-06-02 | 38153.60 | - | 627.20 | - | - | - | - | 221652.40 | - |
| 2024-06-09 | 27704.91 | - | 455.42 | - | - | - | - | 160951.42 | - |
| 2024-06-16 | 17320.45 | - | 284.71 | - | - | - | - | 100623.33 | - |
| 2024-06-23 | 16118.89 | - | 264.96 | - | - | - | - | 93642.85 | - |
| 2024-06-30 | 12333.01 | - | 202.72 | - | - | - | - | 71648.97 | - |
| 2024-07-07 | 9481.47 | - | 155.85 | - | - | - | - | 55083.05 | - |
| 2024-07-14 | 6684.08 | - | 109.86 | - | - | - | - | 38831.74 | - |
| 2024-07-21 | 6632.91 | - | 109.02 | - | - | - | - | 38534.45 | - |
| 2024-07-28 | 5459.70 | - | 89.73 | - | - | - | - | 31718.76 | - |
| 2024-08-04 | 5485.20 | - | 90.15 | - | - | - | - | 31866.83 | - |
| 2024-08-11 | 5177.89 | - | 85.10 | - | - | - | - | 30081.56 | - |
| 2024-08-18 | 5582.83 | - | 91.76 | - | - | - | - | 32434.03 | - |
| 2024-08-25 | 4758.25 | - | 78.20 | - | - | - | - | 27643.71 | - |
| 2024-09-01 | 5327.38 | - | 87.56 | - | - | - | - | 30950.01 | - |
| 2024-09-08 | 5695.39 | - | 93.61 | - | - | - | - | 33087.97 | - |
| 2024-09-15 | 6100.52 | - | 100.27 | - | - | - | - | 35441.54 | - |
| 2024-09-22 | 5816.91 | - | 95.60 | - | - | - | - | 33793.91 | - |
| 2024-09-29 | 5970.24 | - | 98.13 | - | - | - | - | 34684.69 | - |
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