Prediction 2683
| Model | LNCC-AR_p-2025-1 |
|---|---|
| Author | Americo Cunha Jr |
| ADM 1 | Alagoas |
Description:
Validation test 2 for UF=AL (Model1 AR_p)
Show Table
| date | pred | lower_95 | lower_90 | lower_80 | lower_50 | upper_50 | upper_80 | upper_90 | upper_95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-10-08 | 51.0 | 13.0 | 17.0 | 21.0 | 32.0 | 83.0 | 125.0 | 159.0 | 199.0 |
| 2023-10-15 | 49.0 | 12.0 | 15.0 | 20.0 | 30.0 | 80.0 | 122.0 | 158.0 | 194.0 |
| 2023-10-22 | 44.0 | 10.0 | 13.0 | 17.0 | 27.0 | 74.0 | 115.0 | 150.0 | 185.0 |
| 2023-10-29 | 40.0 | 9.0 | 11.0 | 15.0 | 24.0 | 69.0 | 108.0 | 143.0 | 182.0 |
| 2023-11-05 | 39.0 | 9.0 | 11.0 | 14.0 | 23.0 | 66.0 | 106.0 | 140.0 | 183.0 |
| 2023-11-12 | 37.0 | 8.0 | 10.0 | 14.0 | 22.0 | 64.0 | 104.0 | 138.0 | 177.0 |
| 2023-11-19 | 35.0 | 7.0 | 10.0 | 13.0 | 21.0 | 61.0 | 98.0 | 132.0 | 165.0 |
| 2023-11-26 | 32.0 | 6.0 | 8.0 | 11.0 | 18.0 | 55.0 | 90.0 | 123.0 | 156.0 |
| 2023-12-03 | 29.0 | 6.0 | 7.0 | 10.0 | 17.0 | 50.0 | 84.0 | 114.0 | 151.0 |
| 2023-12-10 | 27.0 | 5.0 | 7.0 | 10.0 | 16.0 | 48.0 | 81.0 | 110.0 | 147.0 |
| 2023-12-17 | 27.0 | 6.0 | 7.0 | 10.0 | 16.0 | 49.0 | 82.0 | 111.0 | 145.0 |
| 2023-12-24 | 29.0 | 6.0 | 7.0 | 10.0 | 16.0 | 52.0 | 87.0 | 117.0 | 151.0 |
| 2023-12-31 | 32.0 | 6.0 | 8.0 | 11.0 | 18.0 | 57.0 | 95.0 | 129.0 | 167.0 |
| 2024-01-07 | 34.0 | 7.0 | 8.0 | 11.0 | 19.0 | 62.0 | 103.0 | 140.0 | 182.0 |
| 2024-01-14 | 36.0 | 7.0 | 9.0 | 12.0 | 20.0 | 66.0 | 111.0 | 148.0 | 195.0 |
| 2024-01-21 | 39.0 | 7.0 | 10.0 | 13.0 | 21.0 | 70.0 | 117.0 | 157.0 | 213.0 |
| 2024-01-28 | 43.0 | 8.0 | 11.0 | 14.0 | 24.0 | 79.0 | 130.0 | 175.0 | 241.0 |
| 2024-02-04 | 50.0 | 9.0 | 12.0 | 17.0 | 28.0 | 91.0 | 150.0 | 206.0 | 276.0 |
| 2024-02-11 | 58.0 | 11.0 | 14.0 | 19.0 | 32.0 | 105.0 | 175.0 | 243.0 | 320.0 |
| 2024-02-18 | 67.0 | 12.0 | 16.0 | 22.0 | 37.0 | 119.0 | 200.0 | 277.0 | 372.0 |
| 2024-02-25 | 75.0 | 14.0 | 18.0 | 25.0 | 41.0 | 133.0 | 224.0 | 310.0 | 429.0 |
| 2024-03-03 | 84.0 | 15.0 | 20.0 | 28.0 | 46.0 | 150.0 | 252.0 | 352.0 | 482.0 |
| 2024-03-10 | 98.0 | 18.0 | 24.0 | 32.0 | 54.0 | 175.0 | 296.0 | 415.0 | 546.0 |
| 2024-03-17 | 116.0 | 21.0 | 28.0 | 38.0 | 64.0 | 206.0 | 354.0 | 495.0 | 639.0 |
| 2024-03-24 | 134.0 | 24.0 | 32.0 | 44.0 | 74.0 | 237.0 | 410.0 | 570.0 | 750.0 |
| 2024-03-31 | 147.0 | 27.0 | 35.0 | 48.0 | 81.0 | 261.0 | 451.0 | 627.0 | 842.0 |
| 2024-04-07 | 158.0 | 29.0 | 38.0 | 52.0 | 87.0 | 282.0 | 484.0 | 675.0 | 903.0 |
| 2024-04-14 | 173.0 | 31.0 | 42.0 | 57.0 | 97.0 | 313.0 | 534.0 | 748.0 | 984.0 |
| 2024-04-21 | 197.0 | 36.0 | 48.0 | 65.0 | 110.0 | 358.0 | 610.0 | 856.0 | 1126.0 |
| 2024-04-28 | 224.0 | 41.0 | 54.0 | 74.0 | 126.0 | 407.0 | 695.0 | 975.0 | 1299.0 |
| 2024-05-05 | 244.0 | 44.0 | 59.0 | 81.0 | 137.0 | 445.0 | 761.0 | 1066.0 | 1428.0 |
| 2024-05-12 | 260.0 | 47.0 | 63.0 | 87.0 | 147.0 | 476.0 | 815.0 | 1138.0 | 1520.0 |
| 2024-05-19 | 281.0 | 51.0 | 68.0 | 94.0 | 159.0 | 518.0 | 887.0 | 1234.0 | 1650.0 |
| 2024-05-26 | 313.0 | 57.0 | 76.0 | 105.0 | 177.0 | 577.0 | 990.0 | 1374.0 | 1851.0 |
| 2024-06-02 | 346.0 | 63.0 | 84.0 | 115.0 | 195.0 | 635.0 | 1099.0 | 1523.0 | 2054.0 |
| 2024-06-09 | 366.0 | 67.0 | 89.0 | 122.0 | 206.0 | 670.0 | 1168.0 | 1621.0 | 2176.0 |
| 2024-06-16 | 376.0 | 69.0 | 91.0 | 125.0 | 211.0 | 686.0 | 1201.0 | 1670.0 | 2242.0 |
| 2024-06-23 | 382.0 | 70.0 | 92.0 | 127.0 | 213.0 | 696.0 | 1219.0 | 1698.0 | 2301.0 |
| 2024-06-30 | 392.0 | 71.0 | 94.0 | 130.0 | 218.0 | 713.0 | 1252.0 | 1746.0 | 2380.0 |
| 2024-07-07 | 401.0 | 72.0 | 96.0 | 132.0 | 222.0 | 728.0 | 1283.0 | 1796.0 | 2425.0 |
| 2024-07-14 | 403.0 | 72.0 | 96.0 | 132.0 | 222.0 | 728.0 | 1289.0 | 1817.0 | 2415.0 |
| 2024-07-21 | 391.0 | 70.0 | 92.0 | 127.0 | 215.0 | 707.0 | 1254.0 | 1775.0 | 2349.0 |
| 2024-07-28 | 374.0 | 66.0 | 87.0 | 121.0 | 205.0 | 677.0 | 1201.0 | 1697.0 | 2264.0 |
| 2024-08-04 | 356.0 | 63.0 | 83.0 | 115.0 | 195.0 | 647.0 | 1149.0 | 1611.0 | 2158.0 |
| 2024-08-11 | 341.0 | 60.0 | 79.0 | 110.0 | 187.0 | 622.0 | 1105.0 | 1541.0 | 2045.0 |
| 2024-08-18 | 325.0 | 56.0 | 75.0 | 104.0 | 178.0 | 596.0 | 1056.0 | 1475.0 | 1931.0 |
| 2024-08-25 | 303.0 | 52.0 | 69.0 | 96.0 | 165.0 | 557.0 | 981.0 | 1377.0 | 1803.0 |
| 2024-09-01 | 273.0 | 47.0 | 62.0 | 87.0 | 149.0 | 505.0 | 884.0 | 1240.0 | 1644.0 |
| 2024-09-08 | 243.0 | 42.0 | 55.0 | 77.0 | 133.0 | 450.0 | 786.0 | 1093.0 | 1464.0 |
| 2024-09-15 | 219.0 | 38.0 | 50.0 | 70.0 | 120.0 | 409.0 | 711.0 | 980.0 | 1311.0 |
| 2024-09-22 | 204.0 | 35.0 | 46.0 | 64.0 | 111.0 | 381.0 | 658.0 | 911.0 | 1212.0 |
| 2024-09-29 | 191.0 | 32.0 | 43.0 | 59.0 | 104.0 | 358.0 | 616.0 | 862.0 | 1145.0 |
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