Prediction 2688
| Model | LNCC-AR_p-2025-1 |
|---|---|
| Author | Americo Cunha Jr |
| ADM 1 | Distrito Federal |
Description:
Validation test 2 for UF=DF (Model1 AR_p)
Show Table
| date | pred | lower_95 | lower_90 | lower_80 | lower_50 | upper_50 | upper_80 | upper_90 | upper_95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-10-08 | 230.0 | 51.0 | 65.0 | 86.0 | 137.0 | 386.0 | 623.0 | 819.0 | 1062.0 |
| 2023-10-15 | 214.0 | 45.0 | 58.0 | 77.0 | 125.0 | 366.0 | 600.0 | 796.0 | 1040.0 |
| 2023-10-22 | 202.0 | 41.0 | 53.0 | 71.0 | 116.0 | 351.0 | 580.0 | 778.0 | 1023.0 |
| 2023-10-29 | 193.0 | 38.0 | 49.0 | 67.0 | 110.0 | 340.0 | 566.0 | 769.0 | 1017.0 |
| 2023-11-05 | 187.0 | 36.0 | 46.0 | 63.0 | 105.0 | 335.0 | 560.0 | 770.0 | 1023.0 |
| 2023-11-12 | 185.0 | 34.0 | 44.0 | 61.0 | 103.0 | 337.0 | 566.0 | 784.0 | 1042.0 |
| 2023-11-19 | 189.0 | 34.0 | 44.0 | 61.0 | 104.0 | 346.0 | 584.0 | 811.0 | 1074.0 |
| 2023-11-26 | 196.0 | 35.0 | 46.0 | 63.0 | 108.0 | 362.0 | 614.0 | 851.0 | 1122.0 |
| 2023-12-03 | 207.0 | 36.0 | 47.0 | 66.0 | 113.0 | 384.0 | 655.0 | 904.0 | 1192.0 |
| 2023-12-10 | 222.0 | 39.0 | 51.0 | 71.0 | 121.0 | 413.0 | 709.0 | 978.0 | 1298.0 |
| 2023-12-17 | 242.0 | 42.0 | 55.0 | 77.0 | 132.0 | 451.0 | 775.0 | 1071.0 | 1432.0 |
| 2023-12-24 | 265.0 | 46.0 | 60.0 | 84.0 | 144.0 | 494.0 | 850.0 | 1177.0 | 1587.0 |
| 2023-12-31 | 291.0 | 50.0 | 66.0 | 92.0 | 158.0 | 542.0 | 934.0 | 1295.0 | 1753.0 |
| 2024-01-07 | 319.0 | 55.0 | 72.0 | 101.0 | 172.0 | 595.0 | 1026.0 | 1422.0 | 1926.0 |
| 2024-01-14 | 349.0 | 60.0 | 79.0 | 110.0 | 187.0 | 650.0 | 1120.0 | 1554.0 | 2101.0 |
| 2024-01-21 | 378.0 | 64.0 | 86.0 | 118.0 | 202.0 | 705.0 | 1215.0 | 1689.0 | 2280.0 |
| 2024-01-28 | 408.0 | 69.0 | 93.0 | 128.0 | 218.0 | 758.0 | 1309.0 | 1824.0 | 2459.0 |
| 2024-02-04 | 433.0 | 74.0 | 99.0 | 136.0 | 232.0 | 805.0 | 1394.0 | 1945.0 | 2614.0 |
| 2024-02-11 | 457.0 | 78.0 | 105.0 | 144.0 | 245.0 | 844.0 | 1467.0 | 2047.0 | 2733.0 |
| 2024-02-18 | 476.0 | 82.0 | 110.0 | 150.0 | 257.0 | 876.0 | 1527.0 | 2130.0 | 2825.0 |
| 2024-02-25 | 494.0 | 86.0 | 114.0 | 156.0 | 267.0 | 906.0 | 1582.0 | 2205.0 | 2915.0 |
| 2024-03-03 | 511.0 | 89.0 | 118.0 | 162.0 | 276.0 | 937.0 | 1635.0 | 2272.0 | 3011.0 |
| 2024-03-10 | 528.0 | 92.0 | 121.0 | 167.0 | 286.0 | 970.0 | 1689.0 | 2343.0 | 3115.0 |
| 2024-03-17 | 545.0 | 95.0 | 125.0 | 172.0 | 295.0 | 1002.0 | 1739.0 | 2411.0 | 3212.0 |
| 2024-03-24 | 556.0 | 95.0 | 126.0 | 174.0 | 299.0 | 1025.0 | 1773.0 | 2459.0 | 3284.0 |
| 2024-03-31 | 564.0 | 96.0 | 128.0 | 177.0 | 303.0 | 1040.0 | 1794.0 | 2493.0 | 3331.0 |
| 2024-04-07 | 564.0 | 96.0 | 127.0 | 177.0 | 304.0 | 1039.0 | 1790.0 | 2503.0 | 3341.0 |
| 2024-04-14 | 557.0 | 94.0 | 125.0 | 174.0 | 299.0 | 1022.0 | 1760.0 | 2478.0 | 3315.0 |
| 2024-04-21 | 542.0 | 91.0 | 122.0 | 170.0 | 292.0 | 990.0 | 1708.0 | 2422.0 | 3241.0 |
| 2024-04-28 | 521.0 | 88.0 | 118.0 | 164.0 | 282.0 | 949.0 | 1639.0 | 2338.0 | 3125.0 |
| 2024-05-05 | 497.0 | 85.0 | 113.0 | 157.0 | 271.0 | 902.0 | 1562.0 | 2231.0 | 2970.0 |
| 2024-05-12 | 469.0 | 80.0 | 106.0 | 148.0 | 256.0 | 850.0 | 1476.0 | 2099.0 | 2787.0 |
| 2024-05-19 | 441.0 | 75.0 | 99.0 | 139.0 | 240.0 | 800.0 | 1391.0 | 1963.0 | 2600.0 |
| 2024-05-26 | 413.0 | 71.0 | 93.0 | 130.0 | 225.0 | 751.0 | 1308.0 | 1829.0 | 2419.0 |
| 2024-06-02 | 383.0 | 66.0 | 86.0 | 119.0 | 208.0 | 700.0 | 1219.0 | 1692.0 | 2235.0 |
| 2024-06-09 | 354.0 | 60.0 | 79.0 | 110.0 | 191.0 | 650.0 | 1130.0 | 1559.0 | 2054.0 |
| 2024-06-16 | 325.0 | 55.0 | 72.0 | 100.0 | 175.0 | 599.0 | 1040.0 | 1431.0 | 1880.0 |
| 2024-06-23 | 298.0 | 50.0 | 65.0 | 92.0 | 160.0 | 552.0 | 956.0 | 1317.0 | 1728.0 |
| 2024-06-30 | 274.0 | 46.0 | 60.0 | 84.0 | 147.0 | 511.0 | 884.0 | 1221.0 | 1604.0 |
| 2024-07-07 | 254.0 | 41.0 | 55.0 | 77.0 | 135.0 | 475.0 | 822.0 | 1140.0 | 1505.0 |
| 2024-07-14 | 237.0 | 38.0 | 50.0 | 71.0 | 125.0 | 444.0 | 770.0 | 1071.0 | 1424.0 |
| 2024-07-21 | 222.0 | 35.0 | 46.0 | 65.0 | 116.0 | 418.0 | 726.0 | 1014.0 | 1359.0 |
| 2024-07-28 | 210.0 | 32.0 | 43.0 | 61.0 | 109.0 | 398.0 | 691.0 | 970.0 | 1307.0 |
| 2024-08-04 | 200.0 | 30.0 | 40.0 | 57.0 | 103.0 | 382.0 | 664.0 | 935.0 | 1266.0 |
| 2024-08-11 | 191.0 | 28.0 | 38.0 | 53.0 | 98.0 | 367.0 | 642.0 | 906.0 | 1232.0 |
| 2024-08-18 | 183.0 | 26.0 | 36.0 | 51.0 | 93.0 | 354.0 | 622.0 | 879.0 | 1199.0 |
| 2024-08-25 | 175.0 | 25.0 | 34.0 | 48.0 | 89.0 | 340.0 | 603.0 | 854.0 | 1166.0 |
| 2024-09-01 | 167.0 | 23.0 | 32.0 | 46.0 | 85.0 | 327.0 | 584.0 | 830.0 | 1131.0 |
| 2024-09-08 | 159.0 | 22.0 | 31.0 | 43.0 | 81.0 | 314.0 | 566.0 | 808.0 | 1099.0 |
| 2024-09-15 | 153.0 | 21.0 | 29.0 | 41.0 | 78.0 | 303.0 | 549.0 | 787.0 | 1071.0 |
| 2024-09-22 | 147.0 | 20.0 | 28.0 | 40.0 | 74.0 | 292.0 | 534.0 | 769.0 | 1051.0 |
| 2024-09-29 | 142.0 | 19.0 | 27.0 | 38.0 | 71.0 | 284.0 | 521.0 | 754.0 | 1038.0 |
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