Prediction 269
| Modelo | Model 2 - Weekly and yearly (rw1) components |
|---|---|
| Autor | Marcio Maciel Bastos |
Descrição:
The model is founded on a structural decomposition designed for modeling counting series, employing a Poisson distribution. The log intensity is defined by the sum of weekly and yearly components, where the first one is defined as a AR(1) process and the last one follows a RW(1) process.
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| date | pred | lower_95 | lower_90 | lower_80 | lower_50 | upper_50 | upper_80 | upper_90 | upper_95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-06-11 | 2382.30 | - | 2335.15 | - | - | - | - | 2430.16 | - |
| 2023-06-18 | 2430.52 | - | 2382.86 | - | - | - | - | 2478.89 | - |
| 2023-06-25 | 1941.42 | - | 1899.15 | - | - | - | - | 1984.37 | - |
| 2023-07-02 | 1549.98 | - | 1512.48 | - | - | - | - | 1588.17 | - |
| 2023-07-09 | 1237.81 | - | 1204.49 | - | - | - | - | 1271.80 | - |
| 2023-07-16 | 1181.93 | - | 1149.42 | - | - | - | - | 1215.12 | - |
| 2023-07-23 | 1074.92 | - | 1043.99 | - | - | - | - | 1106.52 | - |
| 2023-07-30 | 951.94 | - | 922.92 | - | - | - | - | 981.63 | - |
| 2023-08-06 | 911.26 | - | 882.90 | - | - | - | - | 940.29 | - |
| 2023-08-13 | 942.20 | - | 913.34 | - | - | - | - | 971.73 | - |
| 2023-08-20 | 1018.90 | - | 988.82 | - | - | - | - | 1049.64 | - |
| 2023-08-27 | 896.32 | - | 868.20 | - | - | - | - | 925.11 | - |
| 2023-09-03 | 938.99 | - | 910.18 | - | - | - | - | 968.47 | - |
| 2023-09-10 | 964.89 | - | 935.67 | - | - | - | - | 994.78 | - |
| 2023-09-17 | 987.06 | - | 957.48 | - | - | - | - | 1017.30 | - |
| 2023-09-24 | 1018.56 | - | 988.49 | - | - | - | - | 1049.30 | - |
| 2023-10-01 | 1005.71 | - | 975.84 | - | - | - | - | 1036.25 | - |
| 2023-10-08 | 1085.24 | - | 1054.15 | - | - | - | - | 1117.00 | - |
| 2023-10-15 | 1038.65 | - | 1008.27 | - | - | - | - | 1069.70 | - |
| 2023-10-22 | 1197.30 | - | 1164.57 | - | - | - | - | 1230.71 | - |
| 2023-10-29 | 1144.39 | - | 1112.42 | - | - | - | - | 1177.03 | - |
| 2023-11-05 | 1409.53 | - | 1373.86 | - | - | - | - | 1445.88 | - |
| 2023-11-12 | 1663.49 | - | 1624.55 | - | - | - | - | 1703.11 | - |
| 2023-11-19 | 1851.47 | - | 1810.25 | - | - | - | - | 1893.37 | - |
| 2023-11-26 | 1855.96 | - | 1814.69 | - | - | - | - | 1897.91 | - |
| 2023-12-03 | 1886.97 | - | 1845.34 | - | - | - | - | 1929.29 | - |
| 2023-12-10 | 2278.00 | - | 2231.97 | - | - | - | - | 2324.74 | - |
| 2023-12-17 | 2074.53 | - | 2030.74 | - | - | - | - | 2119.01 | - |
| 2023-12-24 | 1509.38 | - | 1476.35 | - | - | - | - | 1542.95 | - |
| 2023-12-31 | 4422.74 | - | 256.14 | - | - | - | - | 21113.05 | - |
| 2024-01-07 | 5912.77 | - | 342.44 | - | - | - | - | 28225.91 | - |
| 2024-01-14 | 7245.57 | - | 419.64 | - | - | - | - | 34588.16 | - |
| 2024-01-21 | 9501.02 | - | 550.28 | - | - | - | - | 45354.79 | - |
| 2024-01-28 | 9565.50 | - | 554.01 | - | - | - | - | 45662.60 | - |
| 2024-02-04 | 13149.78 | - | 761.61 | - | - | - | - | 62772.59 | - |
| 2024-02-11 | 14593.14 | - | 845.22 | - | - | - | - | 69662.65 | - |
| 2024-02-18 | 16498.91 | - | 955.60 | - | - | - | - | 78760.06 | - |
| 2024-02-25 | 19475.29 | - | 1127.99 | - | - | - | - | 92968.16 | - |
| 2024-03-03 | 18015.11 | - | 1043.42 | - | - | - | - | 85997.76 | - |
| 2024-03-10 | 26551.65 | - | 1537.86 | - | - | - | - | 126747.94 | - |
| 2024-03-17 | 24492.98 | - | 1418.62 | - | - | - | - | 116920.65 | - |
| 2024-03-24 | 25664.37 | - | 1486.47 | - | - | - | - | 122512.39 | - |
| 2024-03-31 | 26826.93 | - | 1553.81 | - | - | - | - | 128062.04 | - |
| 2024-04-07 | 28773.15 | - | 1666.53 | - | - | - | - | 137352.49 | - |
| 2024-04-14 | 21414.30 | - | 1240.30 | - | - | - | - | 102224.21 | - |
| 2024-04-21 | 22254.61 | - | 1288.97 | - | - | - | - | 106235.51 | - |
| 2024-04-28 | 21871.73 | - | 1266.80 | - | - | - | - | 104407.80 | - |
| 2024-05-05 | 20699.67 | - | 1198.91 | - | - | - | - | 98812.84 | - |
| 2024-05-12 | 12632.91 | - | 731.68 | - | - | - | - | 60305.25 | - |
| 2024-05-19 | 10863.28 | - | 629.18 | - | - | - | - | 51857.71 | - |
| 2024-05-26 | 7629.64 | - | 441.89 | - | - | - | - | 36421.55 | - |
| 2024-06-02 | 6112.00 | - | 353.98 | - | - | - | - | 29176.94 | - |
| 2024-06-09 | 4568.89 | - | 264.60 | - | - | - | - | 21810.83 | - |
| 2024-06-16 | 4661.36 | - | 269.95 | - | - | - | - | 22252.27 | - |
| 2024-06-23 | 3723.33 | - | 215.62 | - | - | - | - | 17774.48 | - |
| 2024-06-30 | 2972.62 | - | 172.14 | - | - | - | - | 14190.87 | - |
| 2024-07-07 | 2373.92 | - | 137.46 | - | - | - | - | 11332.89 | - |
| 2024-07-14 | 2266.76 | - | 131.26 | - | - | - | - | 10821.37 | - |
| 2024-07-21 | 2061.53 | - | 119.37 | - | - | - | - | 9841.66 | - |
| 2024-07-28 | 1825.67 | - | 105.71 | - | - | - | - | 8715.76 | - |
| 2024-08-04 | 1747.66 | - | 101.19 | - | - | - | - | 8343.36 | - |
| 2024-08-11 | 1806.99 | - | 104.63 | - | - | - | - | 8626.59 | - |
| 2024-08-18 | 1954.08 | - | 113.15 | - | - | - | - | 9328.76 | - |
| 2024-08-25 | 1719.01 | - | 99.53 | - | - | - | - | 8206.60 | - |
| 2024-09-01 | 1800.84 | - | 104.27 | - | - | - | - | 8597.24 | - |
| 2024-09-08 | 1850.51 | - | 107.15 | - | - | - | - | 8834.33 | - |
| 2024-09-15 | 1893.02 | - | 109.61 | - | - | - | - | 9037.27 | - |
| 2024-09-22 | 1953.43 | - | 113.11 | - | - | - | - | 9325.66 | - |
| 2024-09-29 | 1928.79 | - | 111.68 | - | - | - | - | 9208.03 | - |
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