Prediction 2704
| Model | LNCC-AR_p-2025-1 |
|---|---|
| Author | Americo Cunha Jr |
| ADM 1 | Rio Grande do Sul |
Description:
Validation test 2 for UF=RS (Model1 AR_p)
Show Table
| date | pred | lower_95 | lower_90 | lower_80 | lower_50 | upper_50 | upper_80 | upper_90 | upper_95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-10-08 | 9.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 22.0 | 47.0 | 74.0 | 110.0 |
| 2023-10-15 | 10.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 23.0 | 50.0 | 79.0 | 117.0 |
| 2023-10-22 | 11.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 5.0 | 26.0 | 58.0 | 92.0 | 136.0 |
| 2023-10-29 | 13.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 6.0 | 32.0 | 69.0 | 110.0 | 164.0 |
| 2023-11-05 | 16.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 7.0 | 37.0 | 80.0 | 127.0 | 190.0 |
| 2023-11-12 | 17.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 7.0 | 40.0 | 86.0 | 137.0 | 207.0 |
| 2023-11-19 | 17.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 7.0 | 42.0 | 91.0 | 145.0 | 219.0 |
| 2023-11-26 | 18.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 7.0 | 42.0 | 93.0 | 147.0 | 221.0 |
| 2023-12-03 | 18.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 7.0 | 43.0 | 94.0 | 149.0 | 223.0 |
| 2023-12-10 | 18.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 7.0 | 43.0 | 93.0 | 150.0 | 225.0 |
| 2023-12-17 | 17.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 7.0 | 41.0 | 89.0 | 146.0 | 221.0 |
| 2023-12-24 | 16.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 7.0 | 38.0 | 83.0 | 138.0 | 209.0 |
| 2023-12-31 | 15.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 6.0 | 36.0 | 78.0 | 132.0 | 200.0 |
| 2024-01-07 | 16.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 7.0 | 39.0 | 83.0 | 141.0 | 213.0 |
| 2024-01-14 | 19.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 8.0 | 46.0 | 99.0 | 166.0 | 252.0 |
| 2024-01-21 | 23.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 10.0 | 57.0 | 125.0 | 205.0 | 314.0 |
| 2024-01-28 | 29.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 5.0 | 12.0 | 71.0 | 159.0 | 254.0 | 391.0 |
| 2024-02-04 | 36.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 7.0 | 15.0 | 88.0 | 201.0 | 316.0 | 487.0 |
| 2024-02-11 | 47.0 | 3.0 | 5.0 | 9.0 | 19.0 | 115.0 | 261.0 | 408.0 | 626.0 |
| 2024-02-18 | 64.0 | 5.0 | 7.0 | 12.0 | 26.0 | 155.0 | 351.0 | 553.0 | 843.0 |
| 2024-02-25 | 90.0 | 7.0 | 10.0 | 17.0 | 37.0 | 220.0 | 489.0 | 784.0 | 1183.0 |
| 2024-03-03 | 129.0 | 10.0 | 15.0 | 24.0 | 53.0 | 314.0 | 693.0 | 1127.0 | 1694.0 |
| 2024-03-10 | 180.0 | 14.0 | 21.0 | 34.0 | 75.0 | 440.0 | 969.0 | 1588.0 | 2383.0 |
| 2024-03-17 | 241.0 | 18.0 | 28.0 | 45.0 | 101.0 | 592.0 | 1307.0 | 2141.0 | 3216.0 |
| 2024-03-24 | 314.0 | 24.0 | 37.0 | 59.0 | 131.0 | 770.0 | 1711.0 | 2793.0 | 4203.0 |
| 2024-03-31 | 390.0 | 29.0 | 45.0 | 73.0 | 161.0 | 955.0 | 2136.0 | 3472.0 | 5223.0 |
| 2024-04-07 | 460.0 | 34.0 | 53.0 | 86.0 | 190.0 | 1124.0 | 2531.0 | 4096.0 | 6173.0 |
| 2024-04-14 | 515.0 | 38.0 | 59.0 | 96.0 | 212.0 | 1256.0 | 2841.0 | 4582.0 | 6926.0 |
| 2024-04-21 | 543.0 | 40.0 | 62.0 | 101.0 | 223.0 | 1322.0 | 2995.0 | 4825.0 | 7329.0 |
| 2024-04-28 | 537.0 | 39.0 | 61.0 | 99.0 | 220.0 | 1306.0 | 2964.0 | 4767.0 | 7268.0 |
| 2024-05-05 | 501.0 | 37.0 | 56.0 | 92.0 | 205.0 | 1215.0 | 2760.0 | 4433.0 | 6764.0 |
| 2024-05-12 | 443.0 | 32.0 | 50.0 | 82.0 | 181.0 | 1074.0 | 2436.0 | 3919.0 | 5987.0 |
| 2024-05-19 | 376.0 | 28.0 | 43.0 | 70.0 | 154.0 | 911.0 | 2055.0 | 3319.0 | 5066.0 |
| 2024-05-26 | 304.0 | 22.0 | 35.0 | 56.0 | 125.0 | 737.0 | 1649.0 | 2678.0 | 4088.0 |
| 2024-06-02 | 234.0 | 17.0 | 27.0 | 44.0 | 97.0 | 570.0 | 1266.0 | 2066.0 | 3153.0 |
| 2024-06-09 | 172.0 | 13.0 | 20.0 | 32.0 | 71.0 | 423.0 | 936.0 | 1534.0 | 2338.0 |
| 2024-06-16 | 123.0 | 9.0 | 14.0 | 23.0 | 50.0 | 306.0 | 678.0 | 1116.0 | 1708.0 |
| 2024-06-23 | 87.0 | 6.0 | 10.0 | 16.0 | 35.0 | 222.0 | 497.0 | 823.0 | 1270.0 |
| 2024-06-30 | 63.0 | 4.0 | 7.0 | 11.0 | 25.0 | 163.0 | 372.0 | 621.0 | 973.0 |
| 2024-07-07 | 47.0 | 3.0 | 5.0 | 8.0 | 19.0 | 123.0 | 287.0 | 485.0 | 773.0 |
| 2024-07-14 | 36.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 6.0 | 14.0 | 95.0 | 226.0 | 385.0 | 620.0 |
| 2024-07-21 | 28.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 10.0 | 72.0 | 174.0 | 299.0 | 484.0 |
| 2024-07-28 | 20.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 8.0 | 53.0 | 130.0 | 224.0 | 361.0 |
| 2024-08-04 | 15.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 6.0 | 39.0 | 96.0 | 166.0 | 265.0 |
| 2024-08-11 | 11.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 29.0 | 71.0 | 123.0 | 191.0 |
| 2024-08-18 | 8.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 22.0 | 53.0 | 93.0 | 142.0 |
| 2024-08-25 | 7.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 18.0 | 42.0 | 73.0 | 112.0 |
| 2024-09-01 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 14.0 | 33.0 | 57.0 | 91.0 |
| 2024-09-08 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 10.0 | 26.0 | 45.0 | 75.0 |
| 2024-09-15 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 9.0 | 24.0 | 41.0 | 70.0 |
| 2024-09-22 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 9.0 | 26.0 | 46.0 | 79.0 |
| 2024-09-29 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 11.0 | 30.0 | 54.0 | 90.0 |
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Interval Bounds
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