Prediction 2707
| Model | LNCC-AR_p-2025-1 |
|---|---|
| Author | Americo Cunha Jr |
| ADM 1 | São Paulo |
Description:
Validation test 2 for UF=SP (Model1 AR_p)
Show Table
| date | pred | lower_95 | lower_90 | lower_80 | lower_50 | upper_50 | upper_80 | upper_90 | upper_95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-10-08 | 266.0 | 53.0 | 68.0 | 92.0 | 151.0 | 461.0 | 746.0 | 1003.0 | 1273.0 |
| 2023-10-15 | 279.0 | 53.0 | 68.0 | 93.0 | 155.0 | 490.0 | 805.0 | 1090.0 | 1400.0 |
| 2023-10-22 | 298.0 | 55.0 | 70.0 | 96.0 | 163.0 | 528.0 | 878.0 | 1196.0 | 1551.0 |
| 2023-10-29 | 324.0 | 58.0 | 75.0 | 103.0 | 176.0 | 578.0 | 970.0 | 1321.0 | 1730.0 |
| 2023-11-05 | 357.0 | 64.0 | 83.0 | 113.0 | 194.0 | 640.0 | 1080.0 | 1471.0 | 1936.0 |
| 2023-11-12 | 396.0 | 69.0 | 90.0 | 123.0 | 213.0 | 716.0 | 1218.0 | 1658.0 | 2197.0 |
| 2023-11-19 | 446.0 | 76.0 | 100.0 | 137.0 | 238.0 | 812.0 | 1391.0 | 1903.0 | 2519.0 |
| 2023-11-26 | 499.0 | 84.0 | 111.0 | 152.0 | 266.0 | 917.0 | 1579.0 | 2179.0 | 2882.0 |
| 2023-12-03 | 559.0 | 93.0 | 123.0 | 169.0 | 297.0 | 1030.0 | 1781.0 | 2484.0 | 3296.0 |
| 2023-12-10 | 627.0 | 104.0 | 137.0 | 190.0 | 332.0 | 1160.0 | 2010.0 | 2839.0 | 3797.0 |
| 2023-12-17 | 720.0 | 119.0 | 156.0 | 218.0 | 381.0 | 1333.0 | 2320.0 | 3307.0 | 4464.0 |
| 2023-12-24 | 847.0 | 139.0 | 181.0 | 256.0 | 449.0 | 1569.0 | 2746.0 | 3929.0 | 5345.0 |
| 2023-12-31 | 1011.0 | 166.0 | 215.0 | 305.0 | 537.0 | 1873.0 | 3301.0 | 4711.0 | 6456.0 |
| 2024-01-07 | 1210.0 | 198.0 | 257.0 | 366.0 | 645.0 | 2245.0 | 3983.0 | 5647.0 | 7768.0 |
| 2024-01-14 | 1464.0 | 240.0 | 312.0 | 445.0 | 786.0 | 2724.0 | 4853.0 | 6839.0 | 9407.0 |
| 2024-01-21 | 1779.0 | 290.0 | 381.0 | 544.0 | 960.0 | 3323.0 | 5922.0 | 8318.0 | 11394.0 |
| 2024-01-28 | 2161.0 | 351.0 | 465.0 | 663.0 | 1170.0 | 4050.0 | 7197.0 | 10097.0 | 13763.0 |
| 2024-02-04 | 2602.0 | 420.0 | 561.0 | 800.0 | 1409.0 | 4884.0 | 8649.0 | 12137.0 | 16441.0 |
| 2024-02-11 | 3085.0 | 494.0 | 665.0 | 948.0 | 1668.0 | 5795.0 | 10230.0 | 14359.0 | 19362.0 |
| 2024-02-18 | 3595.0 | 571.0 | 774.0 | 1103.0 | 1938.0 | 6755.0 | 11898.0 | 16702.0 | 22477.0 |
| 2024-02-25 | 4128.0 | 650.0 | 887.0 | 1262.0 | 2216.0 | 7752.0 | 13641.0 | 19146.0 | 25738.0 |
| 2024-03-03 | 4637.0 | 725.0 | 991.0 | 1409.0 | 2477.0 | 8705.0 | 15326.0 | 21482.0 | 28863.0 |
| 2024-03-10 | 5094.0 | 791.0 | 1084.0 | 1537.0 | 2707.0 | 9555.0 | 16858.0 | 23560.0 | 31650.0 |
| 2024-03-17 | 5477.0 | 846.0 | 1158.0 | 1641.0 | 2895.0 | 10264.0 | 18174.0 | 25285.0 | 33955.0 |
| 2024-03-24 | 5757.0 | 886.0 | 1214.0 | 1718.0 | 3032.0 | 10790.0 | 19173.0 | 26544.0 | 35644.0 |
| 2024-03-31 | 5875.0 | 903.0 | 1234.0 | 1746.0 | 3085.0 | 11013.0 | 19637.0 | 27111.0 | 36277.0 |
| 2024-04-07 | 5782.0 | 889.0 | 1213.0 | 1712.0 | 3032.0 | 10847.0 | 19382.0 | 26736.0 | 35654.0 |
| 2024-04-14 | 5499.0 | 847.0 | 1155.0 | 1623.0 | 2881.0 | 10329.0 | 18450.0 | 25490.0 | 33936.0 |
| 2024-04-21 | 5072.0 | 782.0 | 1069.0 | 1492.0 | 2654.0 | 9532.0 | 16991.0 | 23556.0 | 31374.0 |
| 2024-04-28 | 4551.0 | 703.0 | 962.0 | 1337.0 | 2379.0 | 8551.0 | 15201.0 | 21164.0 | 28217.0 |
| 2024-05-05 | 3949.0 | 612.0 | 837.0 | 1159.0 | 2064.0 | 7421.0 | 13145.0 | 18367.0 | 24577.0 |
| 2024-05-12 | 3304.0 | 513.0 | 701.0 | 967.0 | 1728.0 | 6204.0 | 10956.0 | 15355.0 | 20634.0 |
| 2024-05-19 | 2667.0 | 415.0 | 566.0 | 781.0 | 1397.0 | 5006.0 | 8818.0 | 12372.0 | 16745.0 |
| 2024-05-26 | 2104.0 | 329.0 | 446.0 | 618.0 | 1106.0 | 3952.0 | 6949.0 | 9742.0 | 13315.0 |
| 2024-06-02 | 1624.0 | 254.0 | 343.0 | 478.0 | 858.0 | 3058.0 | 5379.0 | 7514.0 | 10385.0 |
| 2024-06-09 | 1235.0 | 194.0 | 260.0 | 365.0 | 655.0 | 2336.0 | 4115.0 | 5714.0 | 7971.0 |
| 2024-06-16 | 933.0 | 147.0 | 195.0 | 276.0 | 496.0 | 1774.0 | 3136.0 | 4327.0 | 6043.0 |
| 2024-06-23 | 713.0 | 113.0 | 148.0 | 211.0 | 380.0 | 1364.0 | 2422.0 | 3328.0 | 4615.0 |
| 2024-06-30 | 554.0 | 87.0 | 114.0 | 164.0 | 294.0 | 1068.0 | 1904.0 | 2617.0 | 3586.0 |
| 2024-07-07 | 440.0 | 69.0 | 90.0 | 130.0 | 233.0 | 855.0 | 1527.0 | 2112.0 | 2856.0 |
| 2024-07-14 | 354.0 | 55.0 | 73.0 | 104.0 | 185.0 | 692.0 | 1237.0 | 1726.0 | 2315.0 |
| 2024-07-21 | 292.0 | 44.0 | 60.0 | 84.0 | 151.0 | 572.0 | 1025.0 | 1445.0 | 1934.0 |
| 2024-07-28 | 248.0 | 37.0 | 51.0 | 70.0 | 126.0 | 486.0 | 874.0 | 1241.0 | 1673.0 |
| 2024-08-04 | 216.0 | 31.0 | 43.0 | 61.0 | 108.0 | 422.0 | 765.0 | 1090.0 | 1486.0 |
| 2024-08-11 | 187.0 | 26.0 | 37.0 | 52.0 | 93.0 | 366.0 | 672.0 | 961.0 | 1314.0 |
| 2024-08-18 | 162.0 | 22.0 | 31.0 | 44.0 | 81.0 | 318.0 | 592.0 | 848.0 | 1166.0 |
| 2024-08-25 | 144.0 | 19.0 | 27.0 | 39.0 | 72.0 | 286.0 | 538.0 | 774.0 | 1073.0 |
| 2024-09-01 | 136.0 | 17.0 | 24.0 | 36.0 | 67.0 | 273.0 | 517.0 | 748.0 | 1045.0 |
| 2024-09-08 | 136.0 | 17.0 | 24.0 | 35.0 | 67.0 | 273.0 | 520.0 | 757.0 | 1058.0 |
| 2024-09-15 | 137.0 | 17.0 | 23.0 | 35.0 | 67.0 | 277.0 | 528.0 | 773.0 | 1082.0 |
| 2024-09-22 | 140.0 | 17.0 | 23.0 | 34.0 | 67.0 | 283.0 | 542.0 | 795.0 | 1111.0 |
| 2024-09-29 | 145.0 | 17.0 | 23.0 | 35.0 | 70.0 | 296.0 | 569.0 | 834.0 | 1171.0 |
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