Prediction 2901

Dengue Sprint2425 Python Temporal Quantitative Weekly ADM 1
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Model LNCC-SURGE-2025-1
Author Americo Cunha Jr
ADM 1 Amazonas

Description:

Validation test 1 for UF=AM (Model1 AR_p)


Show Table
date pred lower_95 lower_90 lower_80 lower_50 upper_50 upper_80 upper_90 upper_95
2022-10-09 3.69 0.40 0.57 0.86 1.71 7.88 15.77 23.74 34.79
2022-10-16 4.55 0.50 0.70 1.07 2.11 9.74 19.47 29.32 42.96
2022-10-23 5.62 0.62 0.87 1.32 2.60 12.02 24.05 36.20 53.05
2022-10-30 6.94 0.76 1.07 1.63 3.21 14.85 29.69 44.71 65.51
2022-11-06 8.57 0.94 1.32 2.01 3.97 18.33 36.67 55.21 80.90
2022-11-13 10.59 1.16 1.63 2.48 4.90 22.64 45.28 68.18 99.89
2022-11-20 13.07 1.43 2.02 3.06 6.05 27.95 55.91 84.18 123.34
2022-11-27 16.14 1.77 2.49 3.78 7.47 34.51 69.03 103.93 152.29
2022-12-04 19.92 2.19 3.08 4.67 9.22 42.61 85.22 128.31 188.01
2022-12-11 24.59 2.70 3.80 5.76 11.39 52.59 105.19 158.37 232.06
2022-12-18 30.35 3.33 4.68 7.11 14.05 64.90 129.80 195.43 286.35
2022-12-25 37.43 4.11 5.78 8.77 17.33 80.05 160.10 241.05 353.19
2023-01-01 46.14 5.06 7.12 10.81 21.36 98.67 197.34 297.13 435.37
2023-01-08 56.82 6.24 8.77 13.32 26.30 121.51 243.02 365.90 536.14
2023-01-15 69.87 7.67 10.79 16.37 32.35 149.41 298.83 449.94 659.27
2023-01-22 85.72 9.41 13.23 20.09 39.69 183.32 366.65 552.04 808.88
2023-01-29 104.83 11.50 16.18 24.57 48.53 224.17 448.35 675.06 989.13
2023-02-05 127.55 14.00 19.69 29.89 59.05 272.76 545.53 821.38 1203.53
2023-02-12 154.05 16.91 23.78 36.10 71.32 329.45 658.90 992.08 1453.64
2023-02-19 184.08 20.20 28.42 43.14 85.22 393.66 787.32 1185.44 1736.96
2023-02-26 216.61 23.77 33.44 50.77 100.28 463.24 926.49 1394.97 2043.98
2023-03-05 249.57 27.39 38.53 58.49 115.54 533.72 1067.45 1607.21 2354.96
2023-03-12 279.62 30.69 43.16 65.53 129.45 597.97 1195.96 1800.69 2638.47
2023-03-19 302.51 33.20 46.70 70.90 140.05 646.93 1293.89 1948.14 2854.51
2023-03-26 314.20 34.48 48.50 73.64 145.46 671.92 1343.86 2023.38 2964.75
2023-04-02 312.30 34.27 48.21 73.19 144.58 667.86 1335.74 2011.15 2946.84
2023-04-09 297.22 32.62 45.88 69.66 137.60 635.61 1271.23 1914.03 2804.53
2023-04-16 271.93 29.84 41.98 63.73 125.89 581.53 1163.08 1751.19 2565.93
2023-04-23 240.69 26.41 37.16 56.41 111.43 514.73 1029.47 1550.03 2271.18
2023-04-30 207.57 22.78 32.04 48.65 96.10 443.90 887.81 1336.73 1958.64
2023-05-07 175.56 19.27 27.10 41.15 81.28 375.45 750.91 1130.61 1656.62
2023-05-14 146.44 16.07 22.61 34.32 67.79 313.16 626.33 943.04 1381.79
2023-05-21 120.96 13.27 18.67 28.35 56.00 258.68 517.37 778.99 1141.41
2023-05-28 99.26 10.89 15.32 23.26 45.95 212.27 424.54 639.21 936.61
2023-06-04 81.09 8.90 12.52 19.00 37.54 173.40 346.81 522.18 765.12
2023-06-11 66.04 7.25 10.19 15.48 30.57 141.23 282.47 425.30 623.17
2023-06-18 53.68 5.89 8.29 12.58 24.85 114.80 229.61 345.71 506.55
2023-06-25 43.58 4.78 6.73 10.21 20.18 93.20 186.39 280.64 411.21
2023-07-02 35.35 3.88 5.46 8.28 16.36 75.59 151.18 227.63 333.53
2023-07-09 28.65 3.14 4.42 6.72 13.27 61.28 122.55 184.52 270.37
2023-07-16 23.22 2.55 3.58 5.44 10.75 49.65 99.31 149.52 219.09
2023-07-23 18.81 2.06 2.90 4.41 8.71 40.23 80.45 121.13 177.49
2023-07-30 15.24 1.67 2.35 3.57 7.05 32.58 65.17 98.12 143.77
2023-08-06 12.34 1.35 1.90 2.89 5.71 26.39 52.78 79.47 116.44
2023-08-13 9.99 1.10 1.54 2.34 4.63 21.37 42.74 64.36 94.30
2023-08-20 8.09 0.89 1.25 1.90 3.75 17.31 34.61 52.12 76.36
2023-08-27 6.55 0.72 1.01 1.54 3.03 14.02 28.03 42.20 61.84
2023-09-03 5.31 0.58 0.82 1.24 2.46 11.35 22.70 34.18 50.08
2023-09-10 4.30 0.47 0.66 1.01 1.99 9.19 18.38 27.67 40.55
2023-09-17 3.48 0.38 0.54 0.82 1.61 7.44 14.88 22.41 32.84
2023-09-24 2.82 0.31 0.43 0.66 1.30 6.03 12.05 18.15 26.59
2023-10-01 2.99 0.33 0.46 0.70 1.38 6.38 12.77 19.22 28.17
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