Prediction 2902
| Model | LNCC-SURGE-2025-1 |
|---|---|
| Author | Americo Cunha Jr |
| ADM 1 | Amapá |
Description:
Validation test 1 for UF=AP (Model1 AR_p)
Show Table
| date | pred | lower_95 | lower_90 | lower_80 | lower_50 | upper_50 | upper_80 | upper_90 | upper_95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-10-09 | 1.62 | 0.16 | 0.22 | 0.34 | 0.71 | 3.68 | 7.61 | 11.43 | 17.16 |
| 2022-10-16 | 1.88 | 0.18 | 0.26 | 0.39 | 0.83 | 4.27 | 8.84 | 13.28 | 19.94 |
| 2022-10-23 | 2.18 | 0.21 | 0.30 | 0.46 | 0.96 | 4.96 | 10.27 | 15.43 | 23.16 |
| 2022-10-30 | 2.53 | 0.25 | 0.35 | 0.53 | 1.11 | 5.77 | 11.92 | 17.92 | 26.90 |
| 2022-11-06 | 2.94 | 0.29 | 0.40 | 0.62 | 1.29 | 6.70 | 13.85 | 20.81 | 31.23 |
| 2022-11-13 | 3.41 | 0.33 | 0.47 | 0.72 | 1.50 | 7.78 | 16.08 | 24.16 | 36.27 |
| 2022-11-20 | 3.96 | 0.39 | 0.54 | 0.83 | 1.74 | 9.03 | 18.66 | 28.05 | 42.10 |
| 2022-11-27 | 4.60 | 0.45 | 0.63 | 0.97 | 2.02 | 10.48 | 21.66 | 32.55 | 48.87 |
| 2022-12-04 | 5.34 | 0.52 | 0.73 | 1.12 | 2.35 | 12.15 | 25.13 | 37.76 | 56.69 |
| 2022-12-11 | 6.19 | 0.60 | 0.85 | 1.30 | 2.72 | 14.09 | 29.14 | 43.79 | 65.74 |
| 2022-12-18 | 7.17 | 0.70 | 0.98 | 1.51 | 3.15 | 16.33 | 33.77 | 50.74 | 76.18 |
| 2022-12-25 | 8.30 | 0.81 | 1.14 | 1.75 | 3.65 | 18.91 | 39.10 | 58.75 | 88.19 |
| 2023-01-01 | 9.60 | 0.93 | 1.32 | 2.02 | 4.22 | 21.86 | 45.21 | 67.93 | 101.98 |
| 2023-01-08 | 11.08 | 1.08 | 1.52 | 2.33 | 4.88 | 25.24 | 52.19 | 78.42 | 117.73 |
| 2023-01-15 | 12.77 | 1.24 | 1.75 | 2.68 | 5.62 | 29.08 | 60.12 | 90.34 | 135.62 |
| 2023-01-22 | 14.67 | 1.43 | 2.01 | 3.08 | 6.45 | 33.40 | 69.06 | 103.77 | 155.78 |
| 2023-01-29 | 16.78 | 1.63 | 2.30 | 3.53 | 7.38 | 38.22 | 79.02 | 118.74 | 178.26 |
| 2023-02-05 | 19.11 | 1.86 | 2.62 | 4.02 | 8.40 | 43.52 | 89.98 | 135.21 | 202.98 |
| 2023-02-12 | 21.62 | 2.10 | 2.96 | 4.55 | 9.51 | 49.24 | 101.80 | 152.97 | 229.64 |
| 2023-02-19 | 24.26 | 2.36 | 3.32 | 5.10 | 10.67 | 55.25 | 114.23 | 171.65 | 257.68 |
| 2023-02-26 | 26.94 | 2.62 | 3.69 | 5.66 | 11.85 | 61.36 | 126.86 | 190.62 | 286.17 |
| 2023-03-05 | 29.54 | 2.88 | 4.05 | 6.21 | 12.99 | 67.28 | 139.10 | 209.02 | 313.79 |
| 2023-03-12 | 31.91 | 3.10 | 4.37 | 6.71 | 14.03 | 72.65 | 150.21 | 225.72 | 338.86 |
| 2023-03-19 | 33.85 | 3.29 | 4.64 | 7.12 | 14.89 | 77.07 | 159.35 | 239.45 | 359.47 |
| 2023-03-26 | 35.19 | 3.42 | 4.82 | 7.40 | 15.48 | 80.14 | 165.70 | 248.99 | 373.78 |
| 2023-04-02 | 35.81 | 3.48 | 4.91 | 7.53 | 15.75 | 81.55 | 168.61 | 253.36 | 380.35 |
| 2023-04-09 | 35.64 | 3.47 | 4.88 | 7.49 | 15.67 | 81.15 | 167.78 | 252.11 | 378.47 |
| 2023-04-16 | 34.68 | 3.37 | 4.75 | 7.29 | 15.25 | 78.98 | 163.29 | 245.37 | 368.35 |
| 2023-04-23 | 33.05 | 3.22 | 4.53 | 6.95 | 14.54 | 75.27 | 155.62 | 233.84 | 351.05 |
| 2023-04-30 | 30.90 | 3.01 | 4.23 | 6.50 | 13.59 | 70.37 | 145.50 | 218.64 | 328.23 |
| 2023-05-07 | 28.42 | 2.77 | 3.89 | 5.97 | 12.50 | 64.71 | 133.79 | 201.04 | 301.81 |
| 2023-05-14 | 25.76 | 2.51 | 3.53 | 5.42 | 11.33 | 58.66 | 121.29 | 182.26 | 273.62 |
| 2023-05-21 | 23.09 | 2.25 | 3.16 | 4.85 | 10.15 | 52.57 | 108.69 | 163.33 | 245.19 |
| 2023-05-28 | 20.49 | 1.99 | 2.81 | 4.31 | 9.01 | 46.67 | 96.49 | 144.99 | 217.66 |
| 2023-06-04 | 18.06 | 1.76 | 2.47 | 3.80 | 7.94 | 41.12 | 85.03 | 127.77 | 191.81 |
| 2023-06-11 | 15.82 | 1.54 | 2.17 | 3.33 | 6.96 | 36.03 | 74.50 | 111.95 | 168.06 |
| 2023-06-18 | 13.80 | 1.34 | 1.89 | 2.90 | 6.07 | 31.43 | 64.99 | 97.65 | 146.60 |
| 2023-06-25 | 12.00 | 1.17 | 1.64 | 2.52 | 5.28 | 27.33 | 56.50 | 84.90 | 127.45 |
| 2023-07-02 | 10.41 | 1.01 | 1.43 | 2.19 | 4.58 | 23.70 | 49.00 | 73.63 | 110.53 |
| 2023-07-09 | 9.01 | 0.88 | 1.23 | 1.89 | 3.96 | 20.51 | 42.41 | 63.73 | 95.67 |
| 2023-07-16 | 7.79 | 0.76 | 1.07 | 1.64 | 3.42 | 17.73 | 36.65 | 55.08 | 82.68 |
| 2023-07-23 | 6.72 | 0.65 | 0.92 | 1.41 | 2.96 | 15.31 | 31.65 | 47.55 | 71.39 |
| 2023-07-30 | 5.80 | 0.56 | 0.79 | 1.22 | 2.55 | 13.20 | 27.30 | 41.02 | 61.59 |
| 2023-08-06 | 5.00 | 0.49 | 0.68 | 1.05 | 2.20 | 11.38 | 23.54 | 35.37 | 53.10 |
| 2023-08-13 | 4.31 | 0.42 | 0.59 | 0.91 | 1.89 | 9.81 | 20.29 | 30.48 | 45.76 |
| 2023-08-20 | 3.71 | 0.36 | 0.51 | 0.78 | 1.63 | 8.45 | 17.48 | 26.26 | 39.42 |
| 2023-08-27 | 3.20 | 0.31 | 0.44 | 0.67 | 1.41 | 7.28 | 15.05 | 22.62 | 33.95 |
| 2023-09-03 | 2.75 | 0.27 | 0.38 | 0.58 | 1.21 | 6.27 | 12.96 | 19.48 | 29.24 |
| 2023-09-10 | 2.37 | 0.23 | 0.32 | 0.50 | 1.04 | 5.40 | 11.16 | 16.77 | 25.18 |
| 2023-09-17 | 2.04 | 0.20 | 0.28 | 0.43 | 0.90 | 4.65 | 9.61 | 14.44 | 21.68 |
| 2023-09-24 | 1.76 | 0.17 | 0.24 | 0.37 | 0.77 | 4.00 | 8.27 | 12.43 | 18.66 |
| 2023-10-01 | 1.39 | 0.14 | 0.19 | 0.29 | 0.61 | 3.17 | 6.55 | 9.84 | 14.77 |
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