Prediction 2903

Dengue Sprint2425 Python Temporal Quantitative Weekly ADM 1
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Model LNCC-SURGE-2025-1
Author Americo Cunha Jr
ADM 1 Bahia

Description:

Validation test 1 for UF=BA (Model1 AR_p)


Show Table
date pred lower_95 lower_90 lower_80 lower_50 upper_50 upper_80 upper_90 upper_95
2022-10-09 60.28 13.05 16.37 21.41 34.85 102.64 163.59 216.86 273.44
2022-10-16 70.03 15.16 19.02 24.87 40.48 119.24 190.04 251.93 317.66
2022-10-23 81.35 17.61 22.10 28.89 47.02 138.52 220.76 292.66 369.01
2022-10-30 94.50 20.45 25.67 33.56 54.62 160.91 256.44 339.95 428.65
2022-11-06 109.76 23.76 29.81 38.98 63.45 186.90 297.86 394.87 497.89
2022-11-13 127.48 27.59 34.62 45.27 73.69 217.07 345.95 458.61 578.26
2022-11-20 148.04 32.04 40.21 52.57 85.57 252.08 401.74 532.58 671.52
2022-11-27 171.89 37.20 46.69 61.04 99.36 292.69 466.46 618.37 779.70
2022-12-04 199.54 43.19 54.19 70.86 115.34 339.76 541.48 717.82 905.09
2022-12-11 231.56 50.12 62.89 82.23 133.85 394.28 628.38 833.02 1050.34
2022-12-18 268.61 58.14 72.95 95.39 155.27 457.37 728.92 966.31 1218.41
2022-12-25 311.42 67.40 84.58 110.59 180.01 530.27 845.09 1120.31 1412.59
2023-01-01 360.79 78.09 97.99 128.12 208.55 614.33 979.06 1297.91 1636.53
2023-01-08 417.57 90.38 113.41 148.28 241.37 711.01 1133.15 1502.18 1894.09
2023-01-15 482.65 104.46 131.09 171.40 278.99 821.83 1309.77 1736.31 2189.30
2023-01-22 556.90 120.53 151.25 197.76 321.91 948.25 1511.24 2003.40 2526.07
2023-01-29 641.06 138.75 174.11 227.65 370.55 1091.55 1739.63 2306.16 2907.82
2023-02-05 735.65 159.22 199.80 261.24 425.23 1252.62 1996.31 2646.44 3336.88
2023-02-12 840.75 181.97 228.35 298.56 485.98 1431.58 2281.53 3024.54 3813.62
2023-02-19 955.76 206.86 259.58 339.40 552.46 1627.40 2593.62 3438.27 4335.29
2023-02-26 1079.03 233.54 293.07 383.18 623.72 1837.31 2928.15 3881.74 4894.46
2023-03-05 1207.56 261.36 327.98 428.82 698.01 2056.17 3276.95 4344.13 5477.49
2023-03-12 1336.65 289.30 363.04 474.66 772.63 2275.97 3627.25 4808.52 6063.03
2023-03-19 1459.80 315.96 396.48 518.40 843.81 2485.66 3961.44 5251.54 6621.63
2023-03-26 1568.98 339.59 426.14 557.17 906.93 2671.57 4257.73 5644.32 7116.88
2023-04-02 1655.49 358.31 449.63 587.89 956.93 2818.86 4492.46 5955.50 7509.25
2023-04-09 1711.26 370.38 464.78 607.69 989.16 2913.82 4643.81 6156.13 7762.22
2023-04-16 1730.54 374.56 470.02 614.54 1000.31 2946.67 4696.15 6225.52 7849.71
2023-04-23 1711.26 370.38 464.78 607.69 989.16 2913.82 4643.81 6156.13 7762.22
2023-04-30 1655.49 358.31 449.63 587.89 956.93 2818.86 4492.46 5955.50 7509.25
2023-05-07 1568.98 339.59 426.14 557.17 906.93 2671.57 4257.73 5644.32 7116.88
2023-05-14 1459.80 315.96 396.48 518.40 843.81 2485.66 3961.44 5251.54 6621.63
2023-05-21 1336.65 289.30 363.04 474.66 772.63 2275.97 3627.25 4808.52 6063.03
2023-05-28 1207.56 261.36 327.98 428.82 698.01 2056.17 3276.95 4344.13 5477.49
2023-06-04 1079.03 233.54 293.07 383.18 623.72 1837.31 2928.15 3881.74 4894.46
2023-06-11 955.76 206.86 259.58 339.40 552.46 1627.40 2593.62 3438.27 4335.29
2023-06-18 840.75 181.97 228.35 298.56 485.98 1431.58 2281.53 3024.54 3813.62
2023-06-25 735.65 159.22 199.80 261.24 425.23 1252.62 1996.31 2646.44 3336.88
2023-07-02 641.06 138.75 174.11 227.65 370.55 1091.55 1739.63 2306.16 2907.82
2023-07-09 556.90 120.53 151.25 197.76 321.91 948.25 1511.24 2003.40 2526.07
2023-07-16 482.65 104.46 131.09 171.40 278.99 821.83 1309.77 1736.31 2189.30
2023-07-23 417.57 90.38 113.41 148.28 241.37 711.01 1133.15 1502.18 1894.09
2023-07-30 360.79 78.09 97.99 128.12 208.55 614.33 979.06 1297.91 1636.53
2023-08-06 311.42 67.40 84.58 110.59 180.01 530.27 845.09 1120.31 1412.59
2023-08-13 268.61 58.14 72.95 95.39 155.27 457.37 728.92 966.31 1218.41
2023-08-20 231.56 50.12 62.89 82.23 133.85 394.28 628.38 833.02 1050.34
2023-08-27 199.54 43.19 54.19 70.86 115.34 339.76 541.48 717.82 905.09
2023-09-03 171.89 37.20 46.69 61.04 99.36 292.69 466.46 618.37 779.70
2023-09-10 148.04 32.04 40.21 52.57 85.57 252.08 401.74 532.58 671.52
2023-09-17 127.48 27.59 34.62 45.27 73.69 217.07 345.95 458.61 578.26
2023-09-24 109.76 23.76 29.81 38.98 63.45 186.90 297.86 394.87 497.89
2023-10-01 51.89 11.23 14.09 18.43 29.99 88.35 140.81 186.67 235.37
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