Prediction 2906

Dengue Sprint2425 Python Temporal Quantitative Weekly ADM 1
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Model LNCC-SURGE-2025-1
Author Americo Cunha Jr
ADM 1 Espírito Santo

Description:

Validation test 1 for UF=ES (Model1 AR_p)


Show Table
date pred lower_95 lower_90 lower_80 lower_50 upper_50 upper_80 upper_90 upper_95
2022-10-09 66.83 11.17 15.01 21.05 36.20 121.69 212.06 301.66 393.60
2022-10-16 77.63 12.98 17.43 24.45 42.05 141.34 246.31 350.38 457.17
2022-10-23 90.15 15.07 20.25 28.40 48.84 164.15 286.06 406.92 530.94
2022-10-30 104.69 17.50 23.51 32.97 56.71 190.62 332.18 472.52 616.54
2022-11-06 121.54 20.32 27.30 38.28 65.84 221.31 385.66 548.60 715.80
2022-11-13 141.08 23.58 31.68 44.43 76.42 256.87 447.64 636.76 830.84
2022-11-20 163.69 27.37 36.76 51.56 88.67 298.06 519.40 738.85 964.04
2022-11-27 189.85 31.74 42.64 59.80 102.84 345.68 602.40 856.91 1118.09
2022-12-04 220.05 36.79 49.42 69.31 119.20 400.68 698.24 993.24 1295.96
2022-12-11 254.85 42.60 57.24 80.27 138.05 464.04 808.65 1150.30 1500.90
2022-12-18 294.83 49.29 66.22 92.86 159.71 536.83 935.50 1330.74 1736.34
2022-12-25 340.58 56.94 76.49 107.27 184.49 620.13 1080.66 1537.23 2005.76
2023-01-01 392.65 65.64 88.19 123.67 212.69 714.95 1245.89 1772.27 2312.44
2023-01-08 451.51 75.48 101.40 142.21 244.58 822.11 1432.65 2037.93 2659.07
2023-01-15 517.40 86.50 116.20 162.96 280.27 942.09 1641.73 2335.35 3047.14
2023-01-22 590.24 98.67 132.56 185.90 319.73 1074.71 1872.84 2664.10 3476.09
2023-01-29 669.38 111.90 150.34 210.83 362.60 1218.81 2123.95 3021.30 3942.17
2023-02-05 753.41 125.95 169.21 237.30 408.12 1371.83 2390.60 3400.61 4437.07
2023-02-12 839.92 140.41 188.64 264.55 454.98 1529.35 2665.10 3791.09 4946.57
2023-02-19 925.31 154.69 207.82 291.44 501.23 1684.83 2936.05 4176.51 5449.47
2023-02-26 1004.82 167.98 225.67 316.48 544.30 1829.60 3188.33 4535.37 5917.70
2023-03-05 1072.82 179.35 240.95 337.90 581.14 1953.41 3404.08 4842.28 6318.15
2023-03-12 1123.52 187.82 252.33 353.87 608.60 2045.73 3564.96 5071.13 6616.75
2023-03-19 1151.99 192.58 258.73 362.84 624.02 2097.57 3655.31 5199.66 6784.45
2023-03-26 1155.23 193.12 259.46 363.86 625.78 2103.47 3665.59 5214.27 6803.52
2023-04-02 1132.88 189.39 254.44 356.82 613.67 2062.77 3594.66 5113.37 6671.87
2023-04-09 1087.33 181.77 244.20 342.47 589.00 1979.83 3450.12 4907.78 6403.61
2023-04-16 1023.13 171.04 229.79 322.25 554.22 1862.93 3246.41 4618.00 6025.51
2023-04-23 945.95 158.14 212.45 297.94 512.41 1722.40 3001.53 4269.65 5570.99
2023-04-30 861.54 144.03 193.49 271.35 466.69 1568.71 2733.69 3888.66 5073.88
2023-05-07 774.92 129.55 174.04 244.07 419.77 1411.00 2458.85 3497.70 4563.76
2023-05-14 690.00 115.35 154.97 217.32 373.77 1256.36 2189.39 3114.39 4063.62
2023-05-21 609.47 101.89 136.88 191.96 330.14 1109.73 1933.86 2750.90 3589.34
2023-05-28 534.97 89.43 120.15 168.50 289.79 974.09 1697.48 2414.65 3150.61
2023-06-04 467.31 78.12 104.96 147.19 253.14 850.90 1482.81 2109.28 2752.17
2023-06-11 406.71 67.99 91.34 128.10 220.31 740.55 1290.51 1835.74 2395.25
2023-06-18 352.98 59.01 79.28 111.18 191.21 642.71 1120.01 1593.21 2078.80
2023-06-25 305.70 51.10 68.66 96.28 165.60 556.63 970.00 1379.81 1800.37
2023-07-02 264.34 44.19 59.37 83.26 143.19 481.31 838.75 1193.11 1556.76
2023-07-09 228.30 38.17 51.27 71.91 123.67 415.69 724.40 1030.45 1344.52
2023-07-16 197.00 32.93 44.24 62.05 106.71 358.70 625.09 889.18 1160.20
2023-07-23 169.88 28.40 38.15 53.51 92.02 309.32 539.04 766.78 1000.48
2023-07-30 146.42 24.48 32.89 46.12 79.32 266.61 464.61 660.90 862.33
2023-08-06 126.16 21.09 28.33 39.74 68.34 229.71 400.31 569.43 742.99
2023-08-13 108.67 18.17 24.41 34.23 58.87 197.87 344.81 490.50 639.99
2023-08-20 93.59 15.65 21.02 29.48 50.70 170.41 296.95 422.42 551.16
2023-08-27 80.59 13.47 18.10 25.38 43.65 146.73 255.70 363.73 474.59
2023-09-03 69.38 11.60 15.58 21.85 37.58 126.33 220.15 313.16 408.61
2023-09-10 59.73 9.99 13.42 18.81 32.36 108.76 189.53 269.61 351.78
2023-09-17 51.42 8.60 11.55 16.20 27.85 93.63 163.16 232.09 302.83
2023-09-24 44.26 7.40 9.94 13.94 23.98 80.60 140.45 199.79 260.68
2023-10-01 57.54 9.62 12.92 18.12 31.17 104.76 182.56 259.70 338.85
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