Prediction 2912

Dengue Sprint2425 Python Temporal Quantitative Weekly ADM 1
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Model LNCC-SURGE-2025-1
Author Americo Cunha Jr
ADM 1 Pará

Description:

Validation test 1 for UF=PA (Model1 AR_p)


Show Table
date pred lower_95 lower_90 lower_80 lower_50 upper_50 upper_80 upper_90 upper_95
2022-10-09 11.55 3.40 4.14 5.24 7.59 17.54 25.69 32.15 39.23
2022-10-16 13.42 3.95 4.81 6.08 8.81 20.37 29.85 37.35 45.57
2022-10-23 15.58 4.59 5.59 7.07 10.24 23.67 34.67 43.39 52.94
2022-10-30 18.10 5.33 6.49 8.21 11.89 27.49 40.28 50.40 61.50
2022-11-06 21.03 6.19 7.54 9.53 13.82 31.93 46.78 58.54 71.43
2022-11-13 24.42 7.19 8.76 11.07 16.05 37.09 54.34 67.99 82.96
2022-11-20 28.36 8.35 10.17 12.86 18.63 43.07 63.10 78.95 96.34
2022-11-27 32.93 9.69 11.81 14.93 21.64 50.01 73.26 91.67 111.86
2022-12-04 38.22 11.25 13.71 17.33 25.12 58.05 85.05 106.42 129.86
2022-12-11 44.36 13.06 15.91 20.11 29.15 67.36 98.69 123.50 150.70
2022-12-18 51.46 15.15 18.45 23.33 33.81 78.14 114.49 143.26 174.81
2022-12-25 59.66 17.56 21.39 27.05 39.20 90.60 132.73 166.09 202.67
2023-01-01 69.11 20.35 24.79 31.34 45.41 104.96 153.78 192.42 234.80
2023-01-08 79.99 23.55 28.69 36.27 52.56 121.48 177.98 222.70 271.75
2023-01-15 92.46 27.22 33.16 41.93 60.75 140.41 205.72 257.41 314.11
2023-01-22 106.68 31.40 38.26 48.38 70.10 162.01 237.36 297.01 362.42
2023-01-29 122.80 36.15 44.04 55.69 80.69 186.49 273.23 341.89 417.19
2023-02-05 140.92 41.48 50.54 63.90 92.60 214.01 313.55 392.34 478.75
2023-02-12 161.06 47.41 57.76 73.03 105.83 244.59 358.34 448.39 547.15
2023-02-19 183.09 53.90 65.66 83.02 120.30 278.04 407.36 509.72 621.99
2023-02-26 206.70 60.85 74.13 93.73 135.82 313.91 459.90 575.47 702.22
2023-03-05 231.32 68.10 82.96 104.90 152.00 351.30 514.69 644.02 785.87
2023-03-12 256.05 75.38 91.83 116.11 168.25 388.85 569.71 712.87 869.88
2023-03-19 279.64 82.32 100.29 126.81 183.75 424.68 622.20 778.54 950.02
2023-03-26 300.56 88.48 107.79 136.29 197.49 456.44 668.73 836.77 1021.08
2023-04-02 317.13 93.36 113.73 143.81 208.38 481.61 705.60 882.91 1077.37
2023-04-09 327.81 96.50 117.56 148.65 215.40 497.83 729.37 912.65 1113.67
2023-04-16 331.51 97.59 118.89 150.33 217.83 503.44 737.59 922.94 1126.22
2023-04-23 327.81 96.50 117.56 148.65 215.40 497.83 729.37 912.65 1113.67
2023-04-30 317.13 93.36 113.73 143.81 208.38 481.61 705.60 882.91 1077.37
2023-05-07 300.56 88.48 107.79 136.29 197.49 456.44 668.73 836.77 1021.08
2023-05-14 279.64 82.32 100.29 126.81 183.75 424.68 622.20 778.54 950.02
2023-05-21 256.05 75.38 91.83 116.11 168.25 388.85 569.71 712.87 869.88
2023-05-28 231.32 68.10 82.96 104.90 152.00 351.30 514.69 644.02 785.87
2023-06-04 206.70 60.85 74.13 93.73 135.82 313.91 459.90 575.47 702.22
2023-06-11 183.09 53.90 65.66 83.02 120.30 278.04 407.36 509.72 621.99
2023-06-18 161.06 47.41 57.76 73.03 105.83 244.59 358.34 448.39 547.15
2023-06-25 140.92 41.48 50.54 63.90 92.60 214.01 313.55 392.34 478.75
2023-07-02 122.80 36.15 44.04 55.69 80.69 186.49 273.23 341.89 417.19
2023-07-09 106.68 31.40 38.26 48.38 70.10 162.01 237.36 297.01 362.42
2023-07-16 92.46 27.22 33.16 41.93 60.75 140.41 205.72 257.41 314.11
2023-07-23 79.99 23.55 28.69 36.27 52.56 121.48 177.98 222.70 271.75
2023-07-30 69.11 20.35 24.79 31.34 45.41 104.96 153.78 192.42 234.80
2023-08-06 59.66 17.56 21.39 27.05 39.20 90.60 132.73 166.09 202.67
2023-08-13 51.46 15.15 18.45 23.33 33.81 78.14 114.49 143.26 174.81
2023-08-20 44.36 13.06 15.91 20.11 29.15 67.36 98.69 123.49 150.70
2023-08-27 38.22 11.25 13.71 17.33 25.12 58.05 85.05 106.42 129.86
2023-09-03 32.93 9.69 11.81 14.93 21.64 50.01 73.26 91.67 111.86
2023-09-10 28.36 8.35 10.17 12.86 18.63 43.07 63.10 78.95 96.34
2023-09-17 24.42 7.19 8.76 11.07 16.05 37.09 54.34 67.99 82.96
2023-09-24 21.03 6.19 7.54 9.53 13.82 31.93 46.78 58.54 71.43
2023-10-01 9.94 2.93 3.56 4.51 6.53 15.10 22.12 27.67 33.77
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