Prediction 2913

Dengue Sprint2425 Python Temporal Quantitative Weekly ADM 1
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Model LNCC-SURGE-2025-1
Author Americo Cunha Jr
ADM 1 Paraíba

Description:

Validation test 1 for UF=PB (Model1 AR_p)


Show Table
date pred lower_95 lower_90 lower_80 lower_50 upper_50 upper_80 upper_90 upper_95
2022-10-09 38.92 8.54 10.99 14.44 23.18 65.51 104.23 139.16 179.15
2022-10-16 45.20 9.91 12.77 16.77 26.92 76.08 121.04 161.60 208.04
2022-10-23 52.48 11.51 14.82 19.47 31.26 88.34 140.54 187.64 241.56
2022-10-30 60.93 13.36 17.21 22.61 36.29 102.55 163.15 217.82 280.42
2022-11-06 70.70 15.51 19.97 26.24 42.11 119.00 189.33 252.78 325.43
2022-11-13 82.02 17.99 23.16 30.43 48.85 138.05 219.64 293.24 377.51
2022-11-20 95.10 20.86 26.86 35.29 56.64 160.06 254.65 339.98 437.69
2022-11-27 110.18 24.16 31.11 40.88 65.62 185.44 295.04 393.90 507.10
2022-12-04 127.53 27.97 36.01 47.32 75.95 214.64 341.49 455.93 586.96
2022-12-11 147.42 32.33 41.63 54.70 87.80 248.12 394.76 527.04 678.50
2022-12-18 170.12 37.31 48.04 63.12 101.32 286.33 455.54 608.19 782.97
2022-12-25 195.86 42.96 55.31 72.67 116.65 329.65 524.47 700.22 901.45
2023-01-01 224.81 49.31 63.49 83.42 133.89 378.38 601.99 803.72 1034.70
2023-01-08 257.00 56.37 72.58 95.36 153.06 432.56 688.20 918.82 1182.87
2023-01-15 292.27 64.10 82.54 108.45 174.07 491.92 782.64 1044.90 1345.19
2023-01-22 330.13 72.40 93.23 122.50 196.61 555.65 884.02 1180.26 1519.45
2023-01-29 369.68 81.08 104.40 137.17 220.17 622.22 989.94 1321.67 1701.50
2023-02-05 409.52 89.82 115.65 151.95 243.90 689.27 1096.61 1464.09 1884.85
2023-02-12 447.66 98.18 126.42 166.11 266.62 753.47 1198.76 1600.47 2060.42
2023-02-19 481.67 105.64 136.03 178.73 286.87 810.72 1289.84 1722.06 2216.95
2023-02-26 508.86 111.61 143.71 188.82 303.06 856.48 1362.64 1819.26 2342.09
2023-03-05 526.72 115.52 148.75 195.44 313.70 886.53 1410.46 1883.10 2424.28
2023-03-12 533.42 116.99 150.64 197.93 317.69 897.80 1428.39 1907.04 2455.09
2023-03-19 528.22 115.85 149.17 196.00 314.59 889.06 1414.48 1888.47 2431.19
2023-03-26 511.70 112.23 144.51 189.87 304.76 861.26 1370.25 1829.42 2355.17
2023-04-02 485.58 106.50 137.13 180.17 289.19 817.28 1300.28 1736.00 2234.91
2023-04-09 452.28 99.20 127.73 167.82 269.37 761.25 1211.14 1616.98 2081.68
2023-04-16 414.52 90.91 117.06 153.81 246.88 697.69 1110.01 1481.97 1907.87
2023-04-23 374.78 82.20 105.84 139.06 223.21 630.80 1003.59 1339.90 1724.96
2023-04-30 335.10 73.50 94.63 124.34 199.58 564.01 897.34 1198.03 1542.33
2023-05-07 296.96 65.13 83.86 110.19 176.86 499.83 795.22 1061.69 1366.81
2023-05-14 261.33 57.32 73.80 96.97 155.64 439.85 699.80 934.30 1202.81
2023-05-21 228.73 50.17 64.60 84.87 136.23 384.98 612.50 817.75 1052.76
2023-05-28 199.37 43.73 56.30 73.98 118.74 335.56 533.87 712.77 917.61
2023-06-04 173.22 37.99 48.92 64.28 103.17 291.56 463.86 619.30 797.28
2023-06-11 150.15 32.93 42.40 55.71 89.42 252.72 402.07 536.81 691.08
2023-06-18 129.92 28.49 36.69 48.21 77.37 218.66 347.89 464.47 597.95
2023-06-25 112.26 24.62 31.70 41.65 66.86 188.94 300.60 401.34 516.67
2023-07-02 96.90 21.25 27.37 35.96 57.71 163.10 259.49 346.44 446.00
2023-07-09 83.58 18.33 23.60 31.01 49.78 140.68 223.82 298.83 384.71
2023-07-16 72.06 15.80 20.35 26.74 42.92 121.28 192.96 257.61 331.65
2023-07-23 62.09 13.62 17.54 23.04 36.98 104.51 166.28 221.99 285.79
2023-07-30 53.49 11.73 15.11 19.85 31.86 90.03 143.24 191.24 246.20
2023-08-06 46.07 10.10 13.01 17.09 27.44 77.54 123.37 164.71 212.05
2023-08-13 39.67 8.70 11.20 14.72 23.63 66.77 106.24 141.84 182.60
2023-08-20 34.16 7.49 9.65 12.67 20.34 57.49 91.47 122.12 157.22
2023-08-27 29.41 6.45 8.31 10.91 17.51 49.50 78.75 105.14 135.36
2023-09-03 25.32 5.55 7.15 9.39 15.08 42.61 67.80 90.51 116.53
2023-09-10 21.79 4.78 6.15 8.09 12.98 36.68 58.36 77.92 100.31
2023-09-17 18.76 4.11 5.30 6.96 11.17 31.58 50.24 67.07 86.35
2023-09-24 16.15 3.54 4.56 5.99 9.62 27.18 43.24 57.73 74.32
2023-10-01 33.51 7.35 9.46 12.44 19.96 56.41 89.74 119.82 154.25
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