Prediction 2914

Dengue Sprint2425 Python Temporal Quantitative Weekly ADM 1
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Model LNCC-SURGE-2025-1
Author Americo Cunha Jr
ADM 1 Pernambuco

Description:

Validation test 1 for UF=PE (Model1 AR_p)


Show Table
date pred lower_95 lower_90 lower_80 lower_50 upper_50 upper_80 upper_90 upper_95
2022-10-09 78.38 13.82 18.26 25.09 42.86 145.75 251.79 351.53 471.22
2022-10-16 91.02 16.05 21.20 29.14 49.77 169.25 292.39 408.23 547.21
2022-10-23 105.68 18.64 24.62 33.83 57.79 196.51 339.48 473.98 635.35
2022-10-30 122.67 21.63 28.58 39.27 67.09 228.11 394.07 550.19 737.52
2022-11-06 142.35 25.10 33.16 45.57 77.85 264.71 457.30 638.47 855.84
2022-11-13 165.13 29.12 38.47 52.86 90.30 307.05 530.45 740.60 992.74
2022-11-20 191.43 33.76 44.60 61.28 104.69 355.96 614.95 858.58 1150.89
2022-11-27 221.76 39.11 51.66 70.99 121.27 412.36 712.38 994.60 1333.23
2022-12-04 256.63 45.26 59.79 82.15 140.34 477.21 824.41 1151.01 1542.89
2022-12-11 296.59 52.30 69.09 94.94 162.19 551.50 952.76 1330.22 1783.11
2022-12-18 342.15 60.34 79.71 109.52 187.11 636.21 1099.11 1534.54 2056.99
2022-12-25 393.75 69.44 91.73 126.04 215.33 732.17 1264.88 1765.99 2367.24
2023-01-01 451.70 79.66 105.23 144.59 247.01 839.92 1451.02 2025.87 2715.61
2023-01-08 516.00 91.00 120.21 165.17 282.18 959.49 1657.59 2314.28 3102.20
2023-01-15 586.24 103.39 136.57 187.66 320.59 1090.11 1883.23 2629.32 3524.50
2023-01-22 661.36 116.63 154.07 211.71 361.67 1229.79 2124.55 2966.24 3976.14
2023-01-29 739.45 130.40 172.26 236.70 404.38 1374.99 2375.40 3316.46 4445.59
2023-02-05 817.54 144.18 190.46 261.70 447.08 1520.21 2626.27 3666.72 4915.11
2023-02-12 891.61 157.24 207.71 285.41 487.59 1657.94 2864.21 3998.92 5360.41
2023-02-19 956.72 168.72 222.88 306.25 523.20 1779.01 3073.37 4290.95 5751.86
2023-02-26 1007.59 177.69 234.73 322.54 551.01 1873.60 3236.77 4519.09 6057.67
2023-03-05 1039.42 183.31 242.15 332.73 568.42 1932.79 3339.03 4661.86 6249.05
2023-03-12 1048.92 184.98 244.36 335.77 573.61 1950.45 3369.53 4704.44 6306.13
2023-03-19 1035.04 182.53 241.13 331.32 566.02 1924.64 3324.95 4642.19 6222.69
2023-03-26 999.29 176.23 232.80 319.88 546.47 1858.17 3210.11 4481.86 6007.77
2023-04-02 945.33 166.71 220.23 302.61 516.96 1757.83 3036.77 4239.85 5683.37
2023-04-09 878.12 154.86 204.57 281.09 480.21 1632.85 2820.86 3938.41 5279.29
2023-04-16 802.93 141.60 187.05 257.02 439.09 1493.04 2579.33 3601.19 4827.26
2023-04-23 724.56 127.78 168.80 231.94 396.23 1347.31 2327.57 3249.69 4356.09
2023-04-30 646.84 114.07 150.69 207.06 353.73 1202.79 2077.91 2901.12 3888.84
2023-05-07 572.53 100.97 133.38 183.27 313.09 1064.60 1839.18 2567.81 3442.05
2023-05-14 503.35 88.77 117.26 161.13 275.26 935.97 1616.95 2257.55 3026.16
2023-05-21 440.23 77.64 102.56 140.92 240.75 818.61 1414.20 1974.47 2646.70
2023-05-28 383.50 67.63 89.34 122.76 209.72 713.11 1231.95 1720.02 2305.62
2023-06-04 333.07 58.74 77.59 106.62 182.14 619.34 1069.95 1493.83 2002.43
2023-06-11 288.61 50.90 67.24 92.39 157.83 536.67 927.13 1294.43 1735.14
2023-06-18 249.66 44.03 58.16 79.92 136.53 464.24 802.00 1119.73 1500.96
2023-06-25 215.69 38.04 50.25 69.04 117.95 401.06 692.87 967.36 1296.71
2023-07-02 186.16 32.83 43.37 59.59 101.80 346.16 598.01 834.93 1119.19
2023-07-09 160.56 28.31 37.40 51.40 87.80 298.56 515.77 720.11 965.28
2023-07-16 138.40 24.41 32.24 44.30 75.69 257.36 444.61 620.75 832.10
2023-07-23 119.26 21.03 27.78 38.18 65.22 221.76 383.11 534.89 717.00
2023-07-30 102.74 18.12 23.93 32.89 56.18 191.04 330.03 460.77 617.65
2023-08-06 88.48 15.60 20.61 28.32 48.39 164.53 284.23 396.84 531.95
2023-08-13 76.19 13.44 17.75 24.39 41.67 141.68 244.75 341.72 458.06
2023-08-20 65.60 11.57 15.28 21.00 35.87 121.98 210.73 294.22 394.39
2023-08-27 56.48 9.96 13.16 18.08 30.89 105.02 181.43 253.30 339.54
2023-09-03 48.62 8.57 11.33 15.56 26.59 90.41 156.19 218.06 292.30
2023-09-10 41.85 7.38 9.75 13.40 22.89 77.83 134.45 187.71 251.62
2023-09-17 36.03 6.35 8.39 11.53 19.70 66.99 115.73 161.58 216.60
2023-09-24 31.01 5.47 7.22 9.93 16.96 57.66 99.62 139.09 186.44
2023-10-01 67.49 11.90 15.72 21.60 36.91 125.49 216.79 302.68 405.73
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