Prediction 2915

Dengue Sprint2425 Python Temporal Quantitative Weekly ADM 1
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Model LNCC-SURGE-2025-1
Author Americo Cunha Jr
ADM 1 Piauí

Description:

Validation test 1 for UF=PI (Model1 AR_p)


Show Table
date pred lower_95 lower_90 lower_80 lower_50 upper_50 upper_80 upper_90 upper_95
2022-10-09 7.42 1.38 1.87 2.54 4.27 12.95 21.65 29.18 37.92
2022-10-16 8.95 1.66 2.26 3.06 5.15 15.62 26.11 35.19 45.73
2022-10-23 10.80 2.00 2.72 3.70 6.21 18.84 31.49 42.45 55.16
2022-10-30 13.02 2.41 3.29 4.46 7.49 22.73 37.97 51.19 66.52
2022-11-06 15.70 2.91 3.96 5.38 9.03 27.41 45.79 61.73 80.22
2022-11-13 18.94 3.51 4.78 6.48 10.89 33.05 55.22 74.44 96.74
2022-11-20 22.83 4.23 5.76 7.82 13.13 39.85 66.58 89.76 116.64
2022-11-27 27.53 5.10 6.95 9.42 15.83 48.04 80.27 108.21 140.62
2022-12-04 33.18 6.15 8.37 11.36 19.08 57.90 96.75 130.43 169.49
2022-12-11 39.98 7.41 10.09 13.68 22.99 69.77 116.57 157.16 204.22
2022-12-18 48.15 8.92 12.15 16.48 27.69 84.03 140.40 189.28 245.96
2022-12-25 57.95 10.74 14.62 19.84 33.33 101.13 168.98 227.81 296.02
2023-01-01 69.68 12.92 17.58 23.85 40.08 121.61 203.18 273.92 355.94
2023-01-08 83.67 15.51 21.11 28.64 48.12 146.02 243.97 328.90 427.40
2023-01-15 100.27 18.58 25.30 34.32 57.66 174.98 292.36 394.14 512.16
2023-01-22 119.81 22.21 30.23 41.01 68.90 209.08 349.33 470.95 611.98
2023-01-29 142.57 26.43 35.97 48.80 81.99 248.80 415.70 560.42 728.25
2023-02-05 168.67 31.26 42.56 57.74 97.00 294.35 491.81 663.03 861.58
2023-02-12 197.94 36.69 49.94 67.75 113.84 345.43 577.15 778.08 1011.08
2023-02-19 229.70 42.58 57.95 78.63 132.10 400.86 669.77 902.93 1173.32
2023-02-26 262.59 48.67 66.25 89.88 151.02 458.25 765.65 1032.20 1341.30
2023-03-05 294.36 54.56 74.27 100.76 169.29 513.69 858.29 1157.09 1503.59
2023-03-12 321.97 59.68 81.23 110.21 185.17 561.88 938.80 1265.63 1644.64
2023-03-19 342.00 63.39 86.29 117.07 196.69 596.84 997.21 1344.38 1746.96
2023-03-26 351.49 65.15 88.68 120.31 202.14 613.39 1024.87 1381.66 1795.41
2023-04-02 348.87 64.66 88.02 119.42 200.64 608.82 1017.24 1371.37 1782.04
2023-04-09 334.59 62.02 84.42 114.53 192.43 583.90 975.60 1315.24 1709.10
2023-04-16 310.91 57.63 78.44 106.42 178.81 542.58 906.56 1222.16 1588.15
2023-04-23 281.11 52.10 70.93 96.22 161.67 490.57 819.67 1105.02 1435.93
2023-04-30 248.53 46.07 62.71 85.07 142.93 433.72 724.68 976.96 1269.52
2023-05-07 215.91 40.02 54.47 73.90 124.17 376.78 629.54 848.71 1102.86
2023-05-14 185.09 34.31 46.70 63.35 106.45 323.00 539.68 727.56 945.43
2023-05-21 157.12 29.12 39.64 53.78 90.36 274.20 458.14 617.64 802.59
2023-05-28 132.45 24.55 33.42 45.34 76.17 231.13 386.19 520.63 676.54
2023-06-04 111.09 20.59 28.03 38.02 63.89 193.86 323.90 436.67 567.43
2023-06-11 92.84 17.21 23.42 31.78 53.39 162.02 270.71 364.95 474.24
2023-06-18 77.40 14.35 19.53 26.49 44.51 135.08 225.69 304.26 395.37
2023-06-25 64.42 11.94 16.25 22.05 37.05 112.42 187.83 253.23 329.06
2023-07-02 53.55 9.93 13.51 18.33 30.80 93.45 156.14 210.50 273.54
2023-07-09 44.48 8.24 11.22 15.22 25.58 77.62 129.69 174.84 227.20
2023-07-16 36.92 6.84 9.32 12.64 21.23 64.44 107.66 145.14 188.61
2023-07-23 30.64 5.68 7.73 10.49 17.62 53.47 89.34 120.44 156.51
2023-07-30 25.42 4.71 6.41 8.70 14.62 44.36 74.11 99.91 129.83
2023-08-06 21.08 3.91 5.32 7.22 12.12 36.79 61.47 82.87 107.69
2023-08-13 17.48 3.24 4.41 5.98 10.06 30.51 50.98 68.73 89.31
2023-08-20 14.50 2.69 3.66 4.96 8.34 25.30 42.27 56.99 74.06
2023-08-27 12.02 2.23 3.03 4.12 6.91 20.98 35.05 47.26 61.41
2023-09-03 9.97 1.85 2.52 3.41 5.73 17.40 29.07 39.18 50.92
2023-09-10 8.27 1.53 2.09 2.83 4.75 14.42 24.10 32.49 42.22
2023-09-17 6.85 1.27 1.73 2.35 3.94 11.96 19.98 26.94 35.00
2023-09-24 5.68 1.05 1.43 1.94 3.27 9.92 16.57 22.33 29.02
2023-10-01 6.15 1.14 1.55 2.11 3.54 10.74 17.95 24.19 31.44
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