Prediction 2916

Dengue Sprint2425 Python Temporal Quantitative Weekly ADM 1
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Model LNCC-SURGE-2025-1
Author Americo Cunha Jr
ADM 1 Paraná

Description:

Validation test 1 for UF=PR (Model1 AR_p)


Show Table
date pred lower_95 lower_90 lower_80 lower_50 upper_50 upper_80 upper_90 upper_95
2022-10-09 21.07 0.50 0.90 1.84 5.96 76.11 236.81 476.74 830.61
2022-10-16 26.15 0.63 1.11 2.28 7.40 94.49 294.00 591.88 1031.22
2022-10-23 32.47 0.78 1.38 2.84 9.19 117.32 365.01 734.82 1280.27
2022-10-30 40.31 0.97 1.72 3.52 11.41 145.64 453.15 912.26 1589.42
2022-11-06 50.04 1.20 2.13 4.37 14.16 180.81 562.55 1132.51 1973.15
2022-11-13 62.12 1.49 2.65 5.42 17.58 224.45 698.32 1405.84 2449.38
2022-11-20 77.11 1.85 3.29 6.73 21.82 278.59 866.79 1745.00 3040.28
2022-11-27 95.69 2.29 4.08 8.36 27.09 345.75 1075.75 2165.67 3773.21
2022-12-04 118.74 2.84 5.06 10.37 33.61 429.01 1334.80 2687.18 4681.84
2022-12-11 147.28 3.53 6.28 12.86 41.69 532.15 1655.69 3333.19 5807.37
2022-12-18 182.60 4.37 7.78 15.95 51.68 659.75 2052.69 4132.41 7199.84
2022-12-25 226.20 5.42 9.64 19.75 64.03 817.31 2542.91 5119.31 8919.30
2023-01-01 279.89 6.71 11.93 24.44 79.22 1011.29 3146.47 6334.36 11036.26
2023-01-08 345.70 8.28 14.73 30.19 97.85 1249.04 3886.19 7823.56 13630.87
2023-01-15 425.79 10.20 18.15 37.18 120.52 1538.42 4786.54 9636.10 16788.84
2023-01-22 522.23 12.51 22.26 45.60 147.81 1886.89 5870.74 11818.78 20591.68
2023-01-29 636.49 15.25 27.13 55.58 180.15 2299.71 7155.17 14404.56 25096.85
2023-02-05 768.51 18.41 32.75 67.11 217.52 2776.72 8639.29 17392.34 30302.41
2023-02-12 915.35 21.93 39.01 79.93 259.08 3307.27 10290.02 20715.52 36092.34
2023-02-19 1069.42 25.62 45.58 93.39 302.69 3863.96 12022.07 24202.43 42167.54
2023-02-26 1217.09 29.16 51.87 106.28 344.49 4397.48 13682.04 27544.23 47989.89
2023-03-05 1339.04 32.08 57.07 116.93 379.01 4838.13 15053.03 30304.27 52798.68
2023-03-12 1414.29 33.88 60.28 123.51 400.30 5110.01 15898.94 32007.23 55765.71
2023-03-19 1427.42 34.20 60.84 124.65 404.02 5157.44 16046.51 32304.30 56283.30
2023-03-26 1375.53 32.95 58.63 120.12 389.34 4969.98 15463.27 31130.15 54237.59
2023-04-02 1269.71 30.42 54.12 110.88 359.38 4587.63 14273.63 28735.20 50064.91
2023-04-09 1129.70 27.06 48.15 98.65 319.75 4081.76 12699.72 25566.67 44544.42
2023-04-16 976.18 23.39 41.61 85.25 276.30 3527.08 10973.90 22092.30 38491.09
2023-04-23 825.25 19.77 35.17 72.07 233.58 2981.74 9277.17 18676.50 32539.78
2023-04-30 686.79 16.45 29.27 59.97 194.39 2481.44 7720.59 15542.84 27080.06
2023-05-07 565.36 13.54 24.10 49.37 160.02 2042.70 6355.52 12794.73 22292.06
2023-05-14 461.96 11.07 19.69 40.34 130.76 1669.14 5193.24 10454.85 18215.33
2023-05-21 375.62 9.00 16.01 32.80 106.32 1357.16 4222.56 8500.73 14810.69
2023-05-28 304.41 7.29 12.97 26.58 86.16 1099.88 3422.10 6889.26 12003.06
2023-06-04 246.18 5.90 10.49 21.50 69.68 889.46 2767.42 5571.28 9706.76
2023-06-11 198.80 4.76 8.47 17.36 56.27 718.29 2234.84 4499.11 7838.73
2023-06-18 160.39 3.84 6.84 14.01 45.40 579.53 1803.10 3629.93 6324.38
2023-06-25 129.33 3.10 5.51 11.29 36.61 467.29 1453.89 2926.93 5099.54
2023-07-02 104.24 2.50 4.44 9.10 29.51 376.64 1171.86 2359.15 4110.31
2023-07-09 84.00 2.01 3.58 7.34 23.78 303.50 944.30 1901.04 3312.15
2023-07-16 67.68 1.62 2.88 5.91 19.16 244.53 760.81 1531.63 2668.54
2023-07-23 54.52 1.31 2.32 4.76 15.43 196.99 612.90 1233.87 2149.76
2023-07-30 43.92 1.05 1.87 3.84 12.43 158.68 493.72 993.93 1731.72
2023-08-06 35.38 0.85 1.51 3.09 10.01 127.82 397.69 800.62 1394.91
2023-08-13 28.50 0.68 1.21 2.49 8.07 102.96 320.33 644.88 1123.57
2023-08-20 22.95 0.55 0.98 2.00 6.50 82.93 258.02 519.43 905.00
2023-08-27 18.49 0.44 0.79 1.61 5.23 66.79 207.82 418.38 728.93
2023-09-03 14.89 0.36 0.63 1.30 4.21 53.80 167.39 336.98 587.12
2023-09-10 11.99 0.29 0.51 1.05 3.39 43.33 134.82 271.42 472.89
2023-09-17 9.66 0.23 0.41 0.84 2.73 34.90 108.59 218.61 380.89
2023-09-24 7.78 0.19 0.33 0.68 2.20 28.11 87.46 176.08 306.78
2023-10-01 16.97 0.41 0.72 1.48 4.80 61.30 190.74 383.99 669.02
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