Prediction 2917

Dengue Sprint2425 Python Temporal Quantitative Weekly ADM 1
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Model LNCC-SURGE-2025-1
Author Americo Cunha Jr
ADM 1 Rio de Janeiro

Description:

Validation test 1 for UF=RJ (Model1 AR_p)


Show Table
date pred lower_95 lower_90 lower_80 lower_50 upper_50 upper_80 upper_90 upper_95
2022-10-09 32.02 1.51 2.45 4.43 11.35 94.76 247.78 429.91 686.78
2022-10-16 39.01 1.84 2.98 5.40 13.83 115.45 301.89 523.80 836.76
2022-10-23 47.53 2.24 3.63 6.58 16.85 140.66 367.81 638.17 1019.48
2022-10-30 57.91 2.73 4.43 8.01 20.52 171.37 448.11 777.50 1242.05
2022-11-06 70.55 3.33 5.39 9.76 25.00 208.77 545.91 947.19 1513.13
2022-11-13 85.94 4.06 6.57 11.89 30.46 254.31 665.00 1153.82 1843.23
2022-11-20 104.68 4.94 8.00 14.48 37.10 309.76 809.98 1405.38 2245.09
2022-11-27 127.48 6.02 9.74 17.64 45.18 377.23 986.40 1711.48 2734.09
2022-12-04 155.21 7.33 11.86 21.48 55.00 459.27 1200.95 2083.72 3328.75
2022-12-11 188.89 8.92 14.44 26.14 66.94 558.95 1461.60 2535.98 4051.23
2022-12-18 229.76 10.85 17.56 31.79 81.42 679.89 1777.84 3084.67 4927.76
2022-12-25 279.24 13.18 21.34 38.64 98.96 826.31 2160.71 3748.98 5989.00
2023-01-01 338.97 16.00 25.91 46.90 120.13 1003.04 2622.84 4550.82 7269.93
2023-01-08 410.73 19.39 31.39 56.83 145.56 1215.39 3178.11 5514.24 8809.00
2023-01-15 496.37 23.43 37.94 68.68 175.91 1468.82 3840.80 6664.06 10645.83
2023-01-22 597.57 28.21 45.67 82.69 211.77 1768.29 4623.86 8022.73 12816.31
2023-01-29 715.41 33.78 54.68 98.99 253.53 2116.99 5535.68 9604.79 15343.65
2023-02-05 849.69 40.12 64.94 117.57 301.12 2514.34 6574.70 11407.56 18223.58
2023-02-12 997.91 47.11 76.27 138.08 353.65 2952.94 7721.60 13397.51 21402.52
2023-02-19 1154.02 54.48 88.20 159.68 408.97 3414.90 8929.56 15493.40 24750.71
2023-02-26 1307.34 61.72 99.92 180.90 463.31 3868.58 10115.89 17551.78 28038.97
2023-03-05 1442.49 68.10 110.25 199.60 511.20 4268.50 11161.64 19366.22 30937.54
2023-03-12 1541.47 72.78 117.81 213.30 546.28 4561.40 11927.53 20695.09 33060.42
2023-03-19 1588.25 74.98 121.39 219.77 562.86 4699.83 12289.50 21323.14 34063.72
2023-03-26 1574.37 74.33 120.32 217.85 557.94 4658.75 12182.10 21136.79 33766.02
2023-04-02 1502.40 70.93 114.82 207.89 532.43 4445.78 11625.21 20170.54 32222.44
2023-04-09 1384.86 65.38 105.84 191.62 490.78 4097.96 10715.68 18592.44 29701.43
2023-04-16 1239.35 58.51 94.72 171.49 439.21 3667.40 9589.81 16638.99 26580.80
2023-04-23 1083.13 51.14 82.78 149.87 383.85 3205.12 8381.01 14541.64 23230.26
2023-04-30 929.56 43.89 71.04 128.62 329.42 2750.67 7192.67 12479.79 19936.46
2023-05-07 787.12 37.16 60.16 108.91 278.95 2329.19 6090.56 10567.55 16881.66
2023-05-14 660.12 31.17 50.45 91.34 233.94 1953.38 5107.86 8862.49 14157.82
2023-05-21 549.87 25.96 42.02 76.09 194.87 1627.12 4254.73 7382.25 11793.14
2023-05-28 455.87 21.52 34.84 63.08 161.55 1348.98 3527.42 6120.32 9777.20
2023-06-04 376.72 17.79 28.79 52.13 133.50 1114.76 2914.97 5057.67 8079.63
2023-06-11 310.62 14.67 23.74 42.98 110.08 919.17 2403.52 4170.28 6662.02
2023-06-18 255.74 12.07 19.55 35.39 90.63 756.75 1978.83 3433.40 5484.86
2023-06-25 210.33 9.93 16.08 29.10 74.54 622.40 1627.51 2823.84 4511.09
2023-07-02 172.87 8.16 13.21 23.92 61.26 511.55 1337.64 2320.90 3707.64
2023-07-09 142.02 6.70 10.85 19.65 50.33 420.24 1098.89 1906.64 3045.86
2023-07-16 116.63 5.51 8.91 16.14 41.33 345.12 902.46 1565.83 2501.42
2023-07-23 95.76 4.52 7.32 13.25 33.94 283.37 740.99 1285.67 2053.86
2023-07-30 78.62 3.71 6.01 10.88 27.86 232.64 608.32 1055.48 1686.13
2023-08-06 64.54 3.05 4.93 8.93 22.87 190.97 499.36 866.42 1384.11
2023-08-13 52.97 2.50 4.05 7.33 18.77 156.75 409.89 711.18 1136.11
2023-08-20 43.48 2.05 3.32 6.02 15.41 128.66 336.43 583.73 932.51
2023-08-27 35.69 1.68 2.73 4.94 12.65 105.60 276.13 479.11 765.37
2023-09-03 29.29 1.38 2.24 4.05 10.38 86.67 226.63 393.23 628.18
2023-09-10 24.04 1.13 1.84 3.33 8.52 71.13 186.01 322.74 515.57
2023-09-17 19.73 0.93 1.51 2.73 6.99 58.38 152.66 264.88 423.15
2023-09-24 16.19 0.76 1.24 2.24 5.74 47.92 125.29 217.39 347.29
2023-10-01 26.28 1.24 2.01 3.64 9.31 77.77 203.36 352.84 563.67
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