Prediction 2918

Dengue Sprint2425 Python Temporal Quantitative Weekly ADM 1
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Model LNCC-SURGE-2025-1
Author Americo Cunha Jr
ADM 1 Rio Grande do Norte

Description:

Validation test 1 for UF=RN (Model1 AR_p)


Show Table
date pred lower_95 lower_90 lower_80 lower_50 upper_50 upper_80 upper_90 upper_95
2022-10-09 54.62 9.29 12.44 17.34 29.26 101.36 177.55 246.79 329.87
2022-10-16 63.43 10.79 14.44 20.13 33.98 117.71 206.20 286.61 383.09
2022-10-23 73.65 12.53 16.77 23.38 39.46 136.68 239.43 332.80 444.83
2022-10-30 85.51 14.55 19.47 27.14 45.81 158.68 277.96 386.36 516.42
2022-11-06 99.24 16.89 22.60 31.50 53.17 184.17 322.61 448.42 599.37
2022-11-13 115.14 19.59 26.22 36.55 61.69 213.67 374.29 520.25 695.39
2022-11-20 133.52 22.72 30.40 42.38 71.54 247.78 434.04 603.30 806.40
2022-11-27 154.73 26.33 35.23 49.11 82.90 287.14 503.00 699.15 934.51
2022-12-04 179.15 30.48 40.79 56.87 95.99 332.47 582.39 809.51 1082.02
2022-12-11 207.19 35.25 47.18 65.77 111.01 384.49 673.52 936.18 1251.33
2022-12-18 239.23 40.70 54.47 75.94 128.17 443.95 777.68 1080.96 1444.85
2022-12-25 275.64 46.90 62.76 87.49 147.68 511.53 896.06 1245.49 1664.77
2023-01-01 316.71 53.89 72.11 100.53 169.69 587.74 1029.56 1431.06 1912.81
2023-01-08 362.55 61.69 82.55 115.08 194.25 672.81 1178.59 1638.21 2189.69
2023-01-15 413.03 70.27 94.04 131.10 221.30 766.49 1342.68 1866.29 2494.55
2023-01-22 467.59 79.56 106.47 148.42 250.53 867.74 1520.04 2112.81 2824.07
2023-01-29 525.12 89.35 119.57 166.68 281.35 974.50 1707.06 2372.76 3171.52
2023-02-05 583.78 99.33 132.92 185.30 312.78 1083.36 1897.76 2637.84 3525.84
2023-02-12 640.94 109.05 145.94 203.45 343.41 1189.43 2083.56 2896.09 3871.03
2023-02-19 693.17 117.94 157.83 220.03 371.39 1286.37 2253.38 3132.14 4186.54
2023-02-26 736.61 125.33 167.72 233.82 394.67 1366.98 2394.58 3328.39 4448.86
2023-03-05 767.39 130.57 174.73 243.59 411.16 1424.10 2494.65 3467.49 4634.78
2023-03-12 782.45 133.13 178.16 248.37 419.23 1452.05 2543.61 3535.54 4725.75
2023-03-19 780.18 132.74 177.64 247.65 418.01 1447.83 2536.22 3525.27 4712.01
2023-03-26 760.82 129.45 173.23 241.50 407.64 1411.90 2473.27 3437.78 4595.07
2023-04-02 726.41 123.60 165.40 230.58 389.20 1348.06 2361.44 3282.33 4387.29
2023-04-09 680.32 115.75 154.90 215.95 364.50 1262.51 2211.58 3074.03 4108.87
2023-04-16 626.44 106.59 142.64 198.85 335.64 1162.53 2036.44 2830.59 3783.48
2023-04-23 568.59 96.74 129.47 180.48 304.65 1055.18 1848.40 2569.22 3434.12
2023-04-30 510.00 86.77 116.13 161.89 273.25 946.45 1657.93 2304.47 3080.25
2023-05-07 453.10 77.09 103.17 143.82 242.77 840.85 1472.95 2047.35 2736.57
2023-05-14 399.52 67.98 90.97 126.82 214.06 741.42 1298.76 1805.24 2412.96
2023-05-21 350.21 59.59 79.74 111.16 187.64 649.91 1138.47 1582.44 2115.15
2023-05-28 305.60 52.00 69.58 97.01 163.74 567.13 993.46 1380.88 1845.74
2023-06-04 265.76 45.22 60.51 84.36 142.39 493.19 863.94 1200.85 1605.11
2023-06-11 230.51 39.22 52.49 73.17 123.51 427.78 749.36 1041.58 1392.22
2023-06-18 199.55 33.95 45.44 63.34 106.92 370.32 648.70 901.67 1205.21
2023-06-25 172.49 29.35 39.28 54.75 92.42 320.10 560.73 779.40 1041.78
2023-07-02 148.94 25.34 33.91 47.28 79.80 276.39 484.17 672.98 899.53
2023-07-09 128.49 21.86 29.26 40.79 68.85 238.46 417.71 580.61 776.06
2023-07-16 110.79 18.85 25.23 35.17 59.36 205.60 360.16 500.61 669.14
2023-07-23 95.48 16.25 21.74 30.31 51.16 177.19 310.40 431.44 576.68
2023-07-30 82.26 14.00 18.73 26.11 44.08 152.66 267.42 371.70 496.84
2023-08-06 70.85 12.06 16.13 22.49 37.96 131.49 230.33 320.16 427.94
2023-08-13 61.02 10.38 13.89 19.37 32.69 113.23 198.36 275.71 368.52
2023-08-20 52.54 8.94 11.96 16.68 28.15 97.50 170.79 237.40 317.32
2023-08-27 45.23 7.70 10.30 14.36 24.24 83.94 147.05 204.39 273.20
2023-09-03 38.94 6.63 8.87 12.36 20.86 72.27 126.59 175.96 235.19
2023-09-10 33.52 5.70 7.63 10.64 17.96 62.21 108.98 151.47 202.47
2023-09-17 28.86 4.91 6.57 9.16 15.46 53.55 93.81 130.39 174.28
2023-09-24 24.84 4.23 5.66 7.88 13.31 46.10 80.75 112.24 150.02
2023-10-01 47.02 8.00 10.71 14.93 25.20 87.27 152.87 212.48 284.01
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