Prediction 2919
| Model | LNCC-SURGE-2025-1 |
|---|---|
| Author | Americo Cunha Jr |
| ADM 1 | Rondônia |
Description:
Validation test 1 for UF=RO (Model1 AR_p)
Show Table
| date | pred | lower_95 | lower_90 | lower_80 | lower_50 | upper_50 | upper_80 | upper_90 | upper_95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-10-09 | 2.24 | 0.27 | 0.38 | 0.56 | 1.07 | 4.75 | 9.17 | 13.85 | 19.52 |
| 2022-10-16 | 2.72 | 0.33 | 0.46 | 0.68 | 1.30 | 5.76 | 11.13 | 16.80 | 23.69 |
| 2022-10-23 | 3.30 | 0.40 | 0.55 | 0.82 | 1.58 | 6.99 | 13.50 | 20.39 | 28.74 |
| 2022-10-30 | 4.00 | 0.48 | 0.67 | 0.99 | 1.92 | 8.48 | 16.38 | 24.74 | 34.87 |
| 2022-11-06 | 4.86 | 0.59 | 0.82 | 1.21 | 2.33 | 10.29 | 19.87 | 30.01 | 42.30 |
| 2022-11-13 | 5.89 | 0.71 | 0.99 | 1.46 | 2.82 | 12.48 | 24.11 | 36.41 | 51.32 |
| 2022-11-20 | 7.15 | 0.87 | 1.20 | 1.77 | 3.42 | 15.14 | 29.25 | 44.17 | 62.26 |
| 2022-11-27 | 8.67 | 1.05 | 1.46 | 2.15 | 4.15 | 18.37 | 35.48 | 53.58 | 75.53 |
| 2022-12-04 | 10.52 | 1.27 | 1.77 | 2.61 | 5.04 | 22.28 | 43.04 | 64.99 | 91.62 |
| 2022-12-11 | 12.76 | 1.54 | 2.14 | 3.17 | 6.11 | 27.03 | 52.21 | 78.83 | 111.12 |
| 2022-12-18 | 15.47 | 1.87 | 2.60 | 3.84 | 7.41 | 32.78 | 63.31 | 95.60 | 134.75 |
| 2022-12-25 | 18.76 | 2.27 | 3.15 | 4.66 | 8.99 | 39.74 | 76.76 | 115.90 | 163.38 |
| 2023-01-01 | 22.74 | 2.75 | 3.82 | 5.64 | 10.89 | 48.17 | 93.03 | 140.48 | 198.02 |
| 2023-01-08 | 27.54 | 3.33 | 4.62 | 6.84 | 13.19 | 58.35 | 112.70 | 170.18 | 239.89 |
| 2023-01-15 | 33.34 | 4.04 | 5.60 | 8.28 | 15.97 | 70.64 | 136.44 | 206.02 | 290.41 |
| 2023-01-22 | 40.32 | 4.88 | 6.77 | 10.01 | 19.32 | 85.42 | 164.99 | 249.14 | 351.19 |
| 2023-01-29 | 48.69 | 5.89 | 8.17 | 12.08 | 23.32 | 103.15 | 199.23 | 300.83 | 424.06 |
| 2023-02-05 | 58.66 | 7.10 | 9.84 | 14.56 | 28.10 | 124.27 | 240.03 | 362.45 | 510.91 |
| 2023-02-12 | 70.45 | 8.53 | 11.82 | 17.48 | 33.75 | 149.24 | 288.26 | 435.27 | 613.57 |
| 2023-02-19 | 84.21 | 10.19 | 14.13 | 20.90 | 40.34 | 178.40 | 344.58 | 520.32 | 733.44 |
| 2023-02-26 | 100.00 | 12.10 | 16.78 | 24.82 | 47.91 | 211.85 | 409.18 | 617.87 | 870.96 |
| 2023-03-05 | 117.64 | 14.24 | 19.74 | 29.20 | 56.36 | 249.24 | 481.39 | 726.90 | 1024.65 |
| 2023-03-12 | 136.63 | 16.54 | 22.93 | 33.91 | 65.46 | 289.47 | 559.09 | 844.23 | 1190.04 |
| 2023-03-19 | 155.96 | 18.88 | 26.17 | 38.71 | 74.72 | 330.41 | 638.17 | 963.64 | 1358.37 |
| 2023-03-26 | 174.05 | 21.07 | 29.21 | 43.20 | 83.38 | 368.74 | 712.21 | 1075.44 | 1515.96 |
| 2023-04-02 | 188.89 | 22.86 | 31.70 | 46.88 | 90.49 | 400.17 | 772.91 | 1167.09 | 1645.15 |
| 2023-04-09 | 198.35 | 24.01 | 33.29 | 49.23 | 95.02 | 420.22 | 811.65 | 1225.59 | 1727.60 |
| 2023-04-16 | 200.89 | 24.32 | 33.71 | 49.86 | 96.24 | 425.60 | 822.03 | 1241.26 | 1749.70 |
| 2023-04-23 | 196.05 | 23.73 | 32.90 | 48.66 | 93.92 | 415.34 | 802.22 | 1211.35 | 1707.53 |
| 2023-04-30 | 184.67 | 22.35 | 30.99 | 45.84 | 88.47 | 391.24 | 755.67 | 1141.07 | 1608.46 |
| 2023-05-07 | 168.57 | 20.40 | 28.29 | 41.84 | 80.76 | 357.13 | 689.79 | 1041.58 | 1468.23 |
| 2023-05-14 | 149.89 | 18.14 | 25.15 | 37.20 | 71.81 | 317.55 | 613.33 | 926.12 | 1305.47 |
| 2023-05-21 | 130.52 | 15.80 | 21.90 | 32.40 | 62.53 | 276.52 | 534.10 | 806.49 | 1136.83 |
| 2023-05-28 | 111.88 | 13.54 | 18.77 | 27.77 | 53.60 | 237.02 | 457.80 | 691.27 | 974.43 |
| 2023-06-04 | 94.78 | 11.47 | 15.91 | 23.53 | 45.41 | 200.81 | 387.85 | 585.65 | 825.54 |
| 2023-06-11 | 79.63 | 9.64 | 13.36 | 19.76 | 38.15 | 168.70 | 325.84 | 492.03 | 693.57 |
| 2023-06-18 | 66.51 | 8.05 | 11.16 | 16.51 | 31.86 | 140.90 | 272.14 | 410.93 | 579.25 |
| 2023-06-25 | 55.31 | 6.70 | 9.28 | 13.73 | 26.50 | 117.19 | 226.34 | 341.78 | 481.78 |
| 2023-07-02 | 45.88 | 5.55 | 7.70 | 11.39 | 21.98 | 97.19 | 187.72 | 283.46 | 399.56 |
| 2023-07-09 | 37.97 | 4.60 | 6.37 | 9.42 | 18.19 | 80.45 | 155.38 | 234.62 | 330.73 |
| 2023-07-16 | 31.39 | 3.80 | 5.27 | 7.79 | 15.04 | 66.50 | 128.44 | 193.94 | 273.38 |
| 2023-07-23 | 25.92 | 3.14 | 4.35 | 6.43 | 12.42 | 54.92 | 106.07 | 160.16 | 225.77 |
| 2023-07-30 | 21.39 | 2.59 | 3.59 | 5.31 | 10.25 | 45.32 | 87.54 | 132.19 | 186.33 |
| 2023-08-06 | 17.65 | 2.14 | 2.96 | 4.38 | 8.46 | 37.39 | 72.22 | 109.05 | 153.72 |
| 2023-08-13 | 14.56 | 1.76 | 2.44 | 3.61 | 6.97 | 30.84 | 59.56 | 89.94 | 126.77 |
| 2023-08-20 | 12.00 | 1.45 | 2.01 | 2.98 | 5.75 | 25.43 | 49.11 | 74.16 | 104.53 |
| 2023-08-27 | 9.89 | 1.20 | 1.66 | 2.46 | 4.74 | 20.96 | 40.49 | 61.14 | 86.18 |
| 2023-09-03 | 8.16 | 0.99 | 1.37 | 2.02 | 3.91 | 17.28 | 33.38 | 50.40 | 71.05 |
| 2023-09-10 | 6.72 | 0.81 | 1.13 | 1.67 | 3.22 | 14.25 | 27.51 | 41.55 | 58.57 |
| 2023-09-17 | 5.54 | 0.67 | 0.93 | 1.38 | 2.66 | 11.74 | 22.68 | 34.25 | 48.28 |
| 2023-09-24 | 4.57 | 0.55 | 0.77 | 1.13 | 2.19 | 9.68 | 18.69 | 28.23 | 39.79 |
| 2023-10-01 | 1.85 | 0.22 | 0.31 | 0.46 | 0.89 | 3.91 | 7.56 | 11.42 | 16.09 |
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