Prediction 2920

Dengue Sprint2425 Python Temporal Quantitative Weekly ADM 1
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Model LNCC-SURGE-2025-1
Author Americo Cunha Jr
ADM 1 Roraima

Description:

Validation test 1 for UF=RR (Model1 AR_p)


Show Table
date pred lower_95 lower_90 lower_80 lower_50 upper_50 upper_80 upper_90 upper_95
2022-10-09 1.74 0.14 0.21 0.33 0.73 4.06 8.94 13.71 21.06
2022-10-16 2.02 0.16 0.24 0.38 0.85 4.72 10.39 15.92 24.46
2022-10-23 2.35 0.19 0.28 0.44 0.98 5.48 12.07 18.49 28.41
2022-10-30 2.73 0.22 0.33 0.52 1.14 6.37 14.02 21.48 33.00
2022-11-06 3.17 0.25 0.38 0.60 1.33 7.39 16.28 24.94 38.32
2022-11-13 3.68 0.29 0.44 0.70 1.54 8.58 18.90 28.96 44.49
2022-11-20 4.27 0.34 0.51 0.81 1.79 9.96 21.94 33.61 51.65
2022-11-27 4.95 0.40 0.59 0.94 2.07 11.56 25.46 39.00 59.93
2022-12-04 5.75 0.46 0.69 1.09 2.40 13.41 29.53 45.24 69.52
2022-12-11 6.66 0.53 0.80 1.26 2.79 15.55 34.23 52.45 80.59
2022-12-18 7.72 0.62 0.93 1.46 3.23 18.01 39.66 60.76 93.36
2022-12-25 8.93 0.71 1.07 1.69 3.74 20.84 45.89 70.31 108.04
2023-01-01 10.32 0.83 1.24 1.95 4.32 24.09 53.03 81.26 124.85
2023-01-08 11.91 0.95 1.43 2.25 4.98 27.79 61.18 93.73 144.02
2023-01-15 13.70 1.10 1.65 2.59 5.73 31.98 70.40 107.86 165.74
2023-01-22 15.72 1.26 1.89 2.97 6.58 36.68 80.75 123.73 190.11
2023-01-29 17.95 1.44 2.16 3.40 7.51 41.90 92.24 141.33 217.16
2023-02-05 20.40 1.63 2.45 3.86 8.53 47.60 104.79 160.55 246.69
2023-02-12 23.01 1.84 2.76 4.35 9.62 53.69 118.19 181.09 278.26
2023-02-19 25.72 2.06 3.09 4.87 10.76 60.01 132.12 202.44 311.05
2023-02-26 28.43 2.28 3.41 5.38 11.89 66.34 146.04 223.76 343.81
2023-03-05 30.99 2.48 3.72 5.86 12.97 72.32 159.22 243.96 374.85
2023-03-12 33.24 2.66 3.99 6.29 13.91 77.58 170.79 261.69 402.09
2023-03-19 35.00 2.80 4.20 6.62 14.64 81.67 179.80 275.49 423.30
2023-03-26 36.09 2.89 4.33 6.83 15.10 84.22 185.41 284.07 436.49
2023-04-02 36.40 2.91 4.37 6.89 15.23 84.95 187.02 286.54 440.28
2023-04-09 35.90 2.87 4.31 6.79 15.02 83.79 184.46 282.63 434.26
2023-04-16 34.65 2.77 4.16 6.56 14.50 80.86 178.02 272.75 419.09
2023-04-23 32.77 2.62 3.93 6.20 13.71 76.46 168.34 257.92 396.31
2023-04-30 30.43 2.44 3.65 5.76 12.73 71.00 156.32 239.51 368.01
2023-05-07 27.81 2.23 3.34 5.26 11.64 64.91 142.89 218.94 336.40
2023-05-14 25.09 2.01 3.01 4.75 10.50 58.56 128.91 197.52 303.50
2023-05-21 22.40 1.79 2.69 4.24 9.37 52.27 115.07 176.30 270.89
2023-05-28 19.82 1.59 2.38 3.75 8.29 46.25 101.83 156.02 239.73
2023-06-04 17.42 1.39 2.09 3.30 7.29 40.66 89.52 137.15 210.74
2023-06-11 15.24 1.22 1.83 2.88 6.37 35.56 78.28 119.95 184.30
2023-06-18 13.27 1.06 1.59 2.51 5.55 30.97 68.19 104.48 160.54
2023-06-25 11.53 0.92 1.38 2.18 4.82 26.90 59.22 90.74 139.42
2023-07-02 9.99 0.80 1.20 1.89 4.18 23.31 51.31 78.62 120.81
2023-07-09 8.64 0.69 1.04 1.63 3.61 20.16 44.39 68.01 104.50
2023-07-16 7.46 0.60 0.90 1.41 3.12 17.42 38.35 58.75 90.28
2023-07-23 6.44 0.52 0.77 1.22 2.70 15.03 33.10 50.71 77.92
2023-07-30 5.56 0.44 0.67 1.05 2.32 12.97 28.54 43.73 67.20
2023-08-06 4.79 0.38 0.58 0.91 2.00 11.18 24.61 37.70 57.93
2023-08-13 4.13 0.33 0.50 0.78 1.73 9.63 21.20 32.49 49.92
2023-08-20 3.55 0.28 0.43 0.67 1.49 8.30 18.26 27.98 43.00
2023-08-27 3.06 0.25 0.37 0.58 1.28 7.14 15.73 24.10 37.03
2023-09-03 2.64 0.21 0.32 0.50 1.10 6.15 13.55 20.75 31.89
2023-09-10 2.27 0.18 0.27 0.43 0.95 5.30 11.66 17.87 27.46
2023-09-17 1.95 0.16 0.23 0.37 0.82 4.56 10.04 15.38 23.64
2023-09-24 1.68 0.13 0.20 0.32 0.70 3.93 8.64 13.24 20.35
2023-10-01 1.50 0.12 0.18 0.28 0.63 3.50 7.70 11.80 18.13
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