Prediction 2921

Dengue Sprint2425 Python Temporal Quantitative Weekly ADM 1
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Model LNCC-SURGE-2025-1
Author Americo Cunha Jr
ADM 1 Rio Grande do Sul

Description:

Validation test 1 for UF=RS (Model1 AR_p)


Show Table
date pred lower_95 lower_90 lower_80 lower_50 upper_50 upper_80 upper_90 upper_95
2022-10-09 0.10 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.40 1.39 2.91 5.41
2022-10-16 0.14 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.56 1.95 4.08 7.60
2022-10-23 0.19 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.05 0.79 2.75 5.74 10.67
2022-10-30 0.27 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.07 1.11 3.86 8.06 14.99
2022-11-06 0.38 0.01 0.01 0.03 0.09 1.56 5.42 11.32 21.07
2022-11-13 0.53 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.13 2.20 7.62 15.91 29.60
2022-11-20 0.74 0.01 0.02 0.05 0.18 3.08 10.70 22.36 41.59
2022-11-27 1.05 0.02 0.03 0.07 0.26 4.33 15.04 31.41 58.44
2022-12-04 1.47 0.02 0.05 0.10 0.36 6.09 21.13 44.13 82.10
2022-12-11 2.06 0.03 0.07 0.14 0.51 8.56 29.69 62.01 115.35
2022-12-18 2.90 0.05 0.09 0.20 0.71 12.02 41.71 87.11 162.06
2022-12-25 4.07 0.07 0.13 0.28 1.00 16.89 58.59 122.38 227.67
2023-01-01 5.72 0.10 0.19 0.40 1.41 23.72 82.29 171.89 319.79
2023-01-08 8.03 0.13 0.26 0.56 1.97 33.31 115.56 241.37 449.05
2023-01-15 11.27 0.19 0.37 0.78 2.77 46.74 162.17 338.73 630.18
2023-01-22 15.80 0.26 0.52 1.10 3.88 65.52 227.32 474.82 883.35
2023-01-29 22.10 0.37 0.72 1.54 5.43 91.63 317.92 664.06 1235.41
2023-02-05 30.77 0.52 1.00 2.14 7.56 127.58 442.65 924.60 1720.12
2023-02-12 42.47 0.71 1.39 2.96 10.44 176.11 611.05 1276.34 2374.50
2023-02-19 57.68 0.97 1.88 4.02 14.18 239.17 829.85 1733.36 3224.74
2023-02-26 76.02 1.27 2.48 5.29 18.69 315.25 1093.79 2284.67 4250.39
2023-03-05 95.18 1.59 3.11 6.63 23.40 394.69 1369.45 2860.46 5321.58
2023-03-12 110.07 1.84 3.59 7.66 27.06 456.43 1583.65 3307.88 6153.95
2023-03-19 114.61 1.92 3.74 7.98 28.17 475.27 1649.04 3444.45 6408.03
2023-03-26 106.57 1.78 3.48 7.42 26.20 441.92 1533.31 3202.72 5958.31
2023-04-02 89.79 1.50 2.93 6.25 22.07 372.32 1291.81 2698.29 5019.87
2023-04-09 70.46 1.18 2.30 4.91 17.32 292.18 1013.77 2117.52 3939.42
2023-04-16 52.90 0.89 1.73 3.68 13.00 219.36 761.09 1589.73 2957.53
2023-04-23 38.73 0.65 1.26 2.70 9.52 160.58 557.16 1163.78 2165.08
2023-04-30 27.97 0.47 0.91 1.95 6.87 115.97 402.37 840.45 1563.57
2023-05-07 20.05 0.34 0.65 1.40 4.93 83.16 288.52 602.65 1121.17
2023-05-14 14.33 0.24 0.47 1.00 3.52 59.41 206.13 430.55 801.00
2023-05-21 10.22 0.17 0.33 0.71 2.51 42.36 146.99 307.03 571.19
2023-05-28 7.28 0.12 0.24 0.51 1.79 30.18 104.72 218.73 406.93
2023-06-04 5.18 0.09 0.17 0.36 1.27 21.49 74.57 155.75 289.77
2023-06-11 3.69 0.06 0.12 0.26 0.91 15.30 53.09 110.88 206.28
2023-06-18 2.63 0.04 0.09 0.18 0.65 10.89 37.79 78.93 146.84
2023-06-25 1.87 0.03 0.06 0.13 0.46 7.75 26.90 56.18 104.51
2023-07-02 1.33 0.02 0.04 0.09 0.33 5.52 19.14 39.98 74.39
2023-07-09 0.95 0.02 0.03 0.07 0.23 3.93 13.62 28.46 52.94
2023-07-16 0.67 0.01 0.02 0.05 0.17 2.79 9.70 20.25 37.68
2023-07-23 0.48 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.12 1.99 6.90 14.42 26.82
2023-07-30 0.34 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.08 1.42 4.91 10.26 19.09
2023-08-06 0.24 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.06 1.01 3.50 7.30 13.59
2023-08-13 0.17 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.04 0.72 2.49 5.20 9.67
2023-08-20 0.12 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.51 1.77 3.70 6.88
2023-08-27 0.09 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.36 1.26 2.63 4.90
2023-09-03 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.26 0.90 1.87 3.49
2023-09-10 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.18 0.64 1.33 2.48
2023-09-17 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.13 0.45 0.95 1.77
2023-09-24 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.09 0.32 0.68 1.26
2023-10-01 0.07 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.29 0.99 2.07 3.85
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