Prediction 2922

Dengue Sprint2425 Python Temporal Quantitative Weekly ADM 1
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Model LNCC-SURGE-2025-1
Author Americo Cunha Jr
ADM 1 Santa Catarina

Description:

Validation test 1 for UF=SC (Model1 AR_p)


Show Table
date pred lower_95 lower_90 lower_80 lower_50 upper_50 upper_80 upper_90 upper_95
2022-10-09 0.14 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.78 3.52 8.55 18.85
2022-10-16 0.20 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.04 1.06 4.77 11.58 25.53
2022-10-23 0.27 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.05 1.43 6.46 15.67 34.56
2022-10-30 0.36 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.07 1.94 8.74 21.22 46.79
2022-11-06 0.49 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.09 2.62 11.84 28.73 63.34
2022-11-13 0.66 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.12 3.55 16.02 38.89 85.76
2022-11-20 0.89 0.01 0.01 0.04 0.16 4.81 21.70 52.65 116.10
2022-11-27 1.21 0.01 0.02 0.05 0.22 6.51 29.37 71.28 157.19
2022-12-04 1.63 0.01 0.03 0.07 0.30 8.82 39.76 96.51 212.81
2022-12-11 2.21 0.02 0.04 0.09 0.40 11.93 53.83 130.65 288.10
2022-12-18 2.99 0.02 0.05 0.12 0.54 16.16 72.88 176.87 390.01
2022-12-25 4.05 0.03 0.06 0.17 0.74 21.87 98.65 239.42 527.94
2023-01-01 5.48 0.04 0.09 0.22 1.00 29.60 133.52 324.05 714.56
2023-01-08 7.42 0.05 0.12 0.30 1.35 40.05 180.68 438.49 966.92
2023-01-15 10.04 0.07 0.16 0.41 1.82 54.17 244.38 593.09 1307.83
2023-01-22 13.57 0.10 0.22 0.56 2.46 73.22 330.29 801.57 1767.55
2023-01-29 18.31 0.13 0.29 0.75 3.32 98.81 445.74 1081.76 2385.42
2023-02-05 24.64 0.17 0.39 1.01 4.47 133.00 599.97 1456.07 3210.81
2023-02-12 33.01 0.23 0.53 1.35 5.99 178.17 803.74 1950.60 4301.30
2023-02-19 43.85 0.31 0.70 1.80 7.96 236.66 1067.58 2590.91 5713.27
2023-02-26 57.38 0.40 0.91 2.35 10.42 309.67 1396.94 3390.24 7475.88
2023-03-05 73.19 0.51 1.17 3.00 13.29 395.00 1781.86 4324.39 9535.79
2023-03-12 89.59 0.63 1.43 3.67 16.26 483.51 2181.11 5293.32 11672.41
2023-03-19 103.16 0.72 1.64 4.22 18.73 556.76 2511.56 6095.29 13440.84
2023-03-26 109.63 0.77 1.75 4.49 19.90 591.68 2669.07 6477.54 14283.76
2023-04-02 106.46 0.75 1.70 4.36 19.33 574.57 2591.88 6290.23 13870.70
2023-04-09 94.94 0.66 1.51 3.89 17.24 512.36 2311.27 5609.21 12368.98
2023-04-16 79.06 0.55 1.26 3.24 14.35 426.70 1924.84 4671.39 10300.98
2023-04-23 62.76 0.44 1.00 2.57 11.39 338.73 1528.04 3708.38 8177.43
2023-04-30 48.33 0.34 0.77 1.98 8.77 260.84 1176.64 2855.58 6296.90
2023-05-07 36.55 0.26 0.58 1.50 6.63 197.24 889.74 2159.30 4761.52
2023-05-14 27.35 0.19 0.44 1.12 4.96 147.60 665.81 1615.85 3563.14
2023-05-21 20.35 0.14 0.32 0.83 3.69 109.80 495.33 1202.12 2650.81
2023-05-28 15.09 0.11 0.24 0.62 2.74 81.43 367.31 891.42 1965.69
2023-06-04 11.17 0.08 0.18 0.46 2.03 60.27 271.89 659.85 1455.04
2023-06-11 8.26 0.06 0.13 0.34 1.50 44.57 201.06 487.96 1076.00
2023-06-18 6.10 0.04 0.10 0.25 1.11 32.94 148.60 360.65 795.27
2023-06-25 4.51 0.03 0.07 0.18 0.82 24.34 109.80 266.48 587.61
2023-07-02 3.33 0.02 0.05 0.14 0.60 17.98 81.12 196.86 434.11
2023-07-09 2.46 0.02 0.04 0.10 0.45 13.28 59.92 145.42 320.68
2023-07-16 1.82 0.01 0.03 0.07 0.33 9.81 44.26 107.42 236.87
2023-07-23 1.34 0.01 0.02 0.05 0.24 7.25 32.69 79.35 174.97
2023-07-30 0.99 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.18 5.35 24.15 58.61 129.24
2023-08-06 0.73 0.01 0.01 0.03 0.13 3.95 17.84 43.29 95.46
2023-08-13 0.54 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.10 2.92 13.18 31.97 70.51
2023-08-20 0.40 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.07 2.16 9.73 23.62 52.08
2023-08-27 0.30 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.05 1.59 7.19 17.44 38.47
2023-09-03 0.22 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.04 1.18 5.31 12.88 28.41
2023-09-10 0.16 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.87 3.92 9.52 20.99
2023-09-17 0.12 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.64 2.90 7.03 15.50
2023-09-24 0.09 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.47 2.14 5.19 11.45
2023-10-01 0.11 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.58 2.60 6.32 13.93
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