Prediction 2923

Dengue Sprint2425 Python Temporal Quantitative Weekly ADM 1
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Model LNCC-SURGE-2025-1
Author Americo Cunha Jr
ADM 1 Sergipe

Description:

Validation test 1 for UF=SE (Model1 AR_p)


Show Table
date pred lower_95 lower_90 lower_80 lower_50 upper_50 upper_80 upper_90 upper_95
2022-10-09 3.15 0.34 0.49 0.73 1.47 6.74 13.41 19.86 28.01
2022-10-16 3.66 0.40 0.57 0.85 1.71 7.83 15.58 23.07 32.54
2022-10-23 4.25 0.46 0.66 0.99 1.98 9.10 18.10 26.80 37.80
2022-10-30 4.94 0.54 0.77 1.15 2.30 10.57 21.03 31.13 43.91
2022-11-06 5.74 0.63 0.89 1.34 2.67 12.27 24.42 36.16 50.99
2022-11-13 6.66 0.73 1.04 1.55 3.11 14.25 28.36 41.99 59.22
2022-11-20 7.74 0.84 1.21 1.80 3.61 16.55 32.93 48.76 68.76
2022-11-27 8.98 0.98 1.40 2.09 4.19 19.21 38.22 56.60 79.82
2022-12-04 10.42 1.14 1.63 2.43 4.86 22.30 44.36 65.68 92.63
2022-12-11 12.09 1.32 1.89 2.82 5.64 25.86 51.46 76.20 107.46
2022-12-18 14.02 1.53 2.19 3.27 6.53 29.99 59.67 88.35 124.60
2022-12-25 16.24 1.77 2.53 3.79 7.57 34.75 69.14 102.37 144.37
2023-01-01 18.80 2.05 2.93 4.38 8.76 40.22 80.03 118.49 167.11
2023-01-08 21.73 2.37 3.39 5.07 10.13 46.50 92.52 136.99 193.19
2023-01-15 25.08 2.73 3.91 5.85 11.69 53.66 106.78 158.10 222.97
2023-01-22 28.88 3.15 4.51 6.74 13.46 61.79 122.95 182.05 256.75
2023-01-29 33.16 3.61 5.17 7.73 15.46 70.94 141.16 209.00 294.76
2023-02-05 37.92 4.13 5.92 8.84 17.68 81.13 161.42 239.00 337.07
2023-02-12 43.14 4.70 6.73 10.06 20.11 92.29 183.63 271.90 383.46
2023-02-19 48.75 5.31 7.61 11.37 22.73 104.30 207.52 307.26 433.33
2023-02-26 54.62 5.95 8.52 12.74 25.46 116.86 232.52 344.28 485.54
2023-03-05 60.55 6.60 9.45 14.12 28.23 129.55 257.76 381.66 538.26
2023-03-12 66.25 7.22 10.34 15.45 30.88 141.74 282.02 417.58 588.92
2023-03-19 71.36 7.78 11.13 16.64 33.27 152.67 303.77 449.78 634.32
2023-03-26 75.47 8.23 11.78 17.60 35.19 161.48 321.30 475.73 670.92
2023-04-02 78.23 8.53 12.20 18.24 36.47 167.37 333.01 493.07 695.38
2023-04-09 79.33 8.65 12.38 18.50 36.98 169.73 337.70 500.02 705.18
2023-04-16 78.66 8.57 12.27 18.35 36.67 168.30 334.87 495.83 699.27
2023-04-23 76.30 8.32 11.90 17.80 35.57 163.26 324.83 480.96 678.30
2023-04-30 72.50 7.90 11.31 16.91 33.80 155.11 308.62 456.96 644.45
2023-05-07 67.60 7.37 10.55 15.76 31.51 144.63 287.77 426.09 600.91
2023-05-14 62.01 6.76 9.67 14.46 28.91 132.68 263.98 390.87 551.25
2023-05-21 56.11 6.12 8.75 13.09 26.16 120.05 238.86 353.67 498.78
2023-05-28 50.20 5.47 7.83 11.71 23.40 107.40 213.70 316.42 446.24
2023-06-04 44.51 4.85 6.94 10.38 20.75 95.23 189.47 280.54 395.65
2023-06-11 39.18 4.27 6.11 9.14 18.27 83.83 166.80 246.98 348.31
2023-06-18 34.30 3.74 5.35 8.00 15.99 73.40 146.04 216.23 304.95
2023-06-25 29.91 3.26 4.67 6.97 13.94 63.99 127.32 188.51 265.86
2023-07-02 25.99 2.83 4.05 6.06 12.12 55.61 110.64 163.82 231.04
2023-07-09 22.53 2.46 3.52 5.25 10.50 48.21 95.91 142.02 200.29
2023-07-16 19.50 2.12 3.04 4.55 9.09 41.71 83.00 122.89 173.31
2023-07-23 16.85 1.84 2.63 3.93 7.85 36.05 71.72 106.19 149.77
2023-07-30 14.54 1.59 2.27 3.39 6.78 31.12 61.91 91.67 129.29
2023-08-06 12.55 1.37 1.96 2.93 5.85 26.84 53.41 79.08 111.52
2023-08-13 10.82 1.18 1.69 2.52 5.04 23.14 46.04 68.17 96.15
2023-08-20 9.32 1.02 1.45 2.17 4.35 19.94 39.68 58.75 82.85
2023-08-27 8.03 0.88 1.25 1.87 3.74 17.18 34.18 50.61 71.38
2023-09-03 6.92 0.75 1.08 1.61 3.22 14.80 29.44 43.59 61.48
2023-09-10 5.96 0.65 0.93 1.39 2.78 12.74 25.35 37.54 52.94
2023-09-17 5.13 0.56 0.80 1.20 2.39 10.97 21.83 32.32 45.58
2023-09-24 4.41 0.48 0.69 1.03 2.06 9.45 18.79 27.83 39.24
2023-10-01 2.71 0.30 0.42 0.63 1.26 5.80 11.55 17.10 24.11
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