Prediction 2924

Dengue Sprint2425 Python Temporal Quantitative Weekly ADM 1
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Model LNCC-SURGE-2025-1
Author Americo Cunha Jr
ADM 1 São Paulo

Description:

Validation test 1 for UF=SP (Model1 AR_p)


Show Table
date pred lower_95 lower_90 lower_80 lower_50 upper_50 upper_80 upper_90 upper_95
2022-10-09 122.43 6.40 10.34 17.65 44.05 336.80 803.82 1399.90 2263.27
2022-10-16 151.07 7.90 12.76 21.78 54.35 415.58 991.85 1727.34 2792.67
2022-10-23 186.40 9.74 15.75 26.87 67.06 512.78 1223.83 2131.35 3445.85
2022-10-30 229.99 12.02 19.43 33.16 82.75 632.70 1510.04 2629.80 4251.71
2022-11-06 283.77 14.83 23.98 40.91 102.09 780.64 1863.13 3244.72 5245.88
2022-11-13 350.10 18.30 29.58 50.47 125.96 963.13 2298.66 4003.22 6472.18
2022-11-20 431.92 22.58 36.50 62.26 155.39 1188.19 2835.80 4938.68 7984.57
2022-11-27 532.78 27.85 45.02 76.81 191.68 1465.67 3498.06 6092.03 9849.25
2022-12-04 657.09 34.35 55.52 94.73 236.41 1807.65 4314.24 7513.45 12147.31
2022-12-11 810.20 42.36 68.46 116.80 291.49 2228.84 5319.47 9264.09 14977.64
2022-12-18 998.58 52.20 84.38 143.95 359.26 2747.07 6556.31 11418.10 18460.12
2022-12-25 1230.02 64.30 103.93 177.32 442.53 3383.75 8075.85 14064.46 22738.60
2023-01-01 1513.71 79.13 127.91 218.21 544.60 4164.19 9938.49 17308.31 27983.09
2023-01-08 1860.26 97.25 157.19 268.17 669.28 5117.53 12213.79 21270.85 34389.49
2023-01-15 2281.37 119.27 192.77 328.88 820.78 6275.99 14978.64 26085.96 42174.27
2023-01-22 2789.02 145.80 235.67 402.06 1003.42 7672.53 18311.70 31890.64 51558.95
2023-01-29 3393.66 177.41 286.76 489.23 1220.96 9335.89 22281.58 38804.36 62736.65
2023-02-05 4100.82 214.38 346.51 591.17 1475.38 11281.26 26924.50 46890.21 75809.39
2023-02-12 4905.41 256.45 414.50 707.16 1764.85 13494.68 32207.20 56090.25 90683.50
2023-02-19 5783.67 302.36 488.71 833.77 2080.83 15910.76 37973.54 66132.58 106919.36
2023-02-26 6683.90 349.42 564.77 963.54 2404.71 18387.27 43884.12 76426.13 123561.37
2023-03-05 7520.97 393.18 635.50 1084.21 2705.86 20690.01 49379.99 85997.43 139035.70
2023-03-12 8182.82 427.78 691.43 1179.62 2943.98 22510.76 53725.50 93565.31 151271.02
2023-03-19 8556.29 447.31 722.99 1233.46 3078.35 23538.17 56177.57 97835.72 158175.16
2023-03-26 8567.33 447.88 723.92 1235.05 3082.32 23568.54 56250.04 97961.92 158379.20
2023-04-02 8213.63 429.39 694.03 1184.07 2955.07 22595.52 53927.77 93917.59 151840.56
2023-04-09 7565.72 395.52 639.29 1090.66 2721.96 20813.13 49673.84 86509.17 139863.06
2023-04-16 6735.65 352.13 569.15 971.00 2423.33 18529.64 44223.92 77017.90 124518.11
2023-04-23 5836.45 305.12 493.17 841.37 2099.82 16055.95 38320.07 66736.10 107895.08
2023-04-30 4955.17 259.05 418.70 714.33 1782.75 13631.56 32533.88 56659.18 91603.30
2023-05-07 4145.37 216.71 350.27 597.59 1491.41 11403.83 27217.05 47399.69 76633.10
2023-05-14 3432.23 179.43 290.02 494.79 1234.84 9442.00 22534.83 39245.40 63449.71
2023-05-21 2821.67 147.51 238.42 406.77 1015.17 7762.35 18526.07 32263.96 52162.52
2023-05-28 2308.60 120.69 195.07 332.80 830.58 6350.90 15157.42 26397.31 42677.65
2023-06-04 1882.75 98.43 159.09 271.41 677.37 5179.39 12361.44 21527.99 34805.21
2023-06-11 1532.16 80.10 129.46 220.87 551.24 4214.95 10059.64 17519.30 28324.20
2023-06-18 1245.09 65.09 105.21 179.49 447.95 3425.22 8174.84 14236.85 23017.31
2023-06-25 1010.86 52.85 85.42 145.72 363.68 2780.86 6636.96 11558.56 18687.21
2023-07-02 820.19 42.88 69.30 118.24 295.08 2256.32 5385.06 9378.32 15162.33
2023-07-09 665.21 34.78 56.21 95.90 239.33 1829.97 4367.52 7606.23 12297.32
2023-07-16 539.37 28.20 45.58 77.75 194.05 1483.79 3541.31 6167.34 9971.01
2023-07-23 437.26 22.86 36.95 63.03 157.32 1202.89 2870.88 4999.77 8083.34
2023-07-30 354.44 18.53 29.95 51.10 127.52 975.05 2327.11 4052.77 6552.28
2023-08-06 287.28 15.02 24.27 41.41 103.36 790.31 1886.19 3284.89 5310.82
2023-08-13 232.84 12.17 19.67 33.57 83.77 640.54 1528.74 2662.37 4304.36
2023-08-20 188.71 9.87 15.95 27.20 67.89 519.13 1238.99 2157.75 3488.52
2023-08-27 152.94 8.00 12.92 22.05 55.02 420.73 1004.13 1748.73 2827.25
2023-09-03 123.95 6.48 10.47 17.87 44.59 340.97 813.78 1417.23 2291.30
2023-09-10 100.45 5.25 8.49 14.48 36.14 276.33 659.51 1148.56 1856.93
2023-09-17 81.41 4.26 6.88 11.74 29.29 223.94 534.48 930.82 1504.89
2023-09-24 65.97 3.45 5.57 9.51 23.74 181.49 433.15 754.35 1219.59
2023-10-01 99.22 5.19 8.38 14.30 35.70 272.95 651.44 1134.51 1834.21
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