Prediction 2927

Dengue Sprint2425 Python Temporal Quantitative Weekly ADM 1
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Model LNCC-SURGE-2025-1
Author Americo Cunha Jr
ADM 1 Alagoas

Description:

Validation test 2 for UF=AL (Model1 AR_p)


Show Table
date pred lower_95 lower_90 lower_80 lower_50 upper_50 upper_80 upper_90 upper_95
2023-10-08 21.85 2.46 3.60 5.29 10.23 45.38 90.28 137.48 194.08
2023-10-15 25.38 2.86 4.18 6.15 11.89 52.72 104.87 159.69 225.44
2023-10-22 29.48 3.32 4.85 7.14 13.81 61.23 121.81 185.49 261.86
2023-10-29 34.24 3.85 5.64 8.29 16.04 71.12 141.47 215.43 304.13
2023-11-05 39.76 4.47 6.55 9.63 18.62 82.59 164.29 250.18 353.19
2023-11-12 46.16 5.20 7.60 11.18 21.63 95.89 190.75 290.49 410.09
2023-11-19 53.59 6.03 8.83 12.98 25.10 111.32 221.44 337.21 476.05
2023-11-26 62.19 7.00 10.24 15.07 29.13 129.18 256.98 391.33 552.45
2023-12-03 72.14 8.12 11.88 17.48 33.79 149.86 298.10 453.96 640.86
2023-12-10 83.65 9.41 13.78 20.26 39.18 173.75 345.62 526.32 743.02
2023-12-17 96.91 10.91 15.96 23.48 45.40 201.30 400.43 609.79 860.85
2023-12-24 112.17 12.62 18.47 27.17 52.54 232.99 463.48 705.79 996.38
2023-12-31 129.66 14.59 21.35 31.41 60.74 269.32 535.75 815.86 1151.76
2024-01-07 149.62 16.84 24.64 36.24 70.09 310.78 618.22 941.45 1329.06
2024-01-14 172.25 19.39 28.37 41.73 80.69 357.80 711.74 1083.86 1530.11
2024-01-21 197.70 22.25 32.56 47.89 92.61 410.66 816.90 1244.00 1756.17
2024-01-28 226.00 25.43 37.22 54.75 105.86 469.43 933.81 1422.04 2007.52
2024-02-04 256.98 28.92 42.32 62.25 120.38 533.80 1061.86 1617.03 2282.79
2024-02-11 290.24 32.66 47.80 70.31 135.96 602.87 1199.26 1826.27 2578.18
2024-02-18 324.96 36.57 53.52 78.72 152.22 675.00 1342.74 2044.76 2886.63
2024-02-25 359.91 40.50 59.27 87.18 168.59 747.59 1487.14 2264.66 3197.06
2024-03-03 393.34 44.27 64.78 95.28 184.25 817.04 1625.28 2475.03 3494.05
2024-03-10 423.11 47.62 69.68 102.49 198.20 878.87 1748.28 2662.33 3758.46
2024-03-17 446.85 50.29 73.59 108.25 209.32 928.18 1846.38 2811.73 3969.37
2024-03-24 462.37 52.04 76.15 112.01 216.59 960.43 1910.52 2909.41 4107.26
2024-03-31 468.08 52.68 77.09 113.39 219.26 972.29 1934.11 2945.33 4157.98
2024-04-07 463.36 52.15 76.31 112.24 217.05 962.48 1914.60 2915.61 4116.02
2024-04-14 448.71 50.50 73.90 108.70 210.19 932.06 1854.09 2823.47 3985.94
2024-04-21 425.67 47.90 70.10 103.11 199.40 884.19 1758.86 2678.44 3781.21
2024-04-28 396.37 44.61 65.28 96.02 185.67 823.34 1637.81 2494.11 3520.99
2024-05-05 363.19 40.87 59.81 87.98 170.13 754.41 1500.71 2285.32 3226.23
2024-05-12 328.31 36.95 54.07 79.53 153.79 681.95 1356.56 2065.82 2916.35
2024-05-19 293.50 33.03 48.34 71.10 137.48 609.65 1212.74 1846.80 2607.16
2024-05-26 260.06 29.27 42.83 63.00 121.82 540.20 1074.59 1636.42 2310.16
2024-06-02 228.84 25.75 37.69 55.43 107.20 475.34 945.56 1439.93 2032.77
2024-06-09 200.28 22.54 32.98 48.52 93.82 416.01 827.54 1260.20 1779.05
2024-06-16 174.55 19.64 28.75 42.28 81.77 362.58 721.26 1098.35 1550.57
2024-06-23 151.66 17.07 24.98 36.74 71.04 315.02 626.65 954.28 1347.18
2024-06-30 131.45 14.79 21.65 31.84 61.58 273.05 543.16 827.14 1167.69
2024-07-07 113.73 12.80 18.73 27.55 53.28 236.25 469.95 715.66 1010.31
2024-07-14 98.27 11.06 16.18 23.81 46.03 204.13 406.07 618.37 872.97
2024-07-21 84.83 9.55 13.97 20.55 39.74 176.21 350.52 533.78 753.55
2024-07-28 73.17 8.23 12.05 17.73 34.28 151.99 302.34 460.42 649.98
2024-08-04 63.08 7.10 10.39 15.28 29.55 131.03 260.64 396.92 560.34
2024-08-11 54.36 6.12 8.95 13.17 25.46 112.91 224.60 342.03 482.86
2024-08-18 46.83 5.27 7.71 11.34 21.94 97.27 193.49 294.65 415.96
2024-08-25 40.33 4.54 6.64 9.77 18.89 83.77 166.65 253.77 358.26
2024-09-01 34.73 3.91 5.72 8.41 16.27 72.14 143.50 218.53 308.50
2024-09-08 29.90 3.37 4.92 7.24 14.01 62.11 123.56 188.16 265.62
2024-09-15 25.74 2.90 4.24 6.24 12.06 53.48 106.38 161.99 228.69
2024-09-22 22.16 2.49 3.65 5.37 10.38 46.04 91.58 139.45 196.87
2024-09-29 18.81 2.12 3.10 4.56 8.81 39.07 77.71 118.34 167.07
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