Prediction 2930

Dengue Sprint2425 Python Temporal Quantitative Weekly ADM 1
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Model LNCC-SURGE-2025-1
Author Americo Cunha Jr
ADM 1 Bahia

Description:

Validation test 2 for UF=BA (Model1 AR_p)


Show Table
date pred lower_95 lower_90 lower_80 lower_50 upper_50 upper_80 upper_90 upper_95
2023-10-08 59.56 13.87 17.34 22.78 35.28 98.10 156.95 207.52 258.73
2023-10-15 69.20 16.11 20.14 26.46 40.99 113.96 182.33 241.08 300.57
2023-10-22 80.38 18.71 23.40 30.74 47.61 132.39 211.81 280.06 349.16
2023-10-29 93.37 21.74 27.18 35.71 55.31 153.78 246.04 325.32 405.59
2023-11-05 108.46 25.25 31.57 41.47 64.24 178.62 285.78 377.87 471.11
2023-11-12 125.96 29.32 36.66 48.17 74.61 207.46 331.92 438.86 547.16
2023-11-19 146.28 34.05 42.58 55.94 86.64 240.92 385.45 509.64 635.40
2023-11-26 169.84 39.54 49.43 64.95 100.60 279.73 447.54 591.74 737.76
2023-12-03 197.16 45.90 57.38 75.39 116.78 324.71 519.52 686.91 856.41
2023-12-10 228.80 53.26 66.59 87.49 135.52 376.82 602.89 797.15 993.85
2023-12-17 265.41 61.79 77.25 101.49 157.21 437.12 699.36 924.70 1152.88
2023-12-24 307.71 71.63 89.56 117.67 182.26 506.79 810.82 1072.07 1336.62
2023-12-31 356.49 82.99 103.76 136.32 211.15 587.12 939.36 1242.03 1548.51
2024-01-07 412.59 96.05 120.09 157.77 244.39 679.53 1087.20 1437.50 1792.22
2024-01-14 476.90 111.02 138.80 182.37 282.48 785.44 1256.65 1661.55 2071.55
2024-01-21 550.26 128.10 160.16 210.42 325.93 906.26 1449.95 1917.14 2390.21
2024-01-28 633.42 147.46 184.36 242.22 375.19 1043.22 1669.07 2206.86 2751.43
2024-02-04 726.88 169.21 211.56 277.96 430.55 1197.15 1915.35 2532.49 3157.41
2024-02-11 830.73 193.39 241.79 317.67 492.06 1368.19 2189.00 2894.31 3608.51
2024-02-18 944.36 219.84 274.86 361.12 559.37 1555.34 2488.43 3290.22 4102.12
2024-02-25 1066.17 248.20 310.31 407.70 631.51 1755.95 2809.39 3714.60 4631.22
2024-03-03 1193.17 277.77 347.28 456.27 706.74 1965.12 3144.04 4157.08 5182.88
2024-03-10 1320.72 307.46 384.40 505.04 782.29 2175.19 3480.15 4601.48 5736.94
2024-03-17 1442.40 335.79 419.82 551.57 854.36 2375.59 3800.77 5025.42 6265.49
2024-03-24 1550.28 360.90 451.22 592.82 918.27 2553.27 4085.05 5401.29 6734.11
2024-03-31 1635.75 380.80 476.09 625.51 968.89 2694.04 4310.27 5699.07 7105.37
2024-04-07 1690.86 393.63 492.13 646.58 1001.53 2784.79 4455.47 5891.06 7344.74
2024-04-14 1709.92 398.06 497.68 653.87 1012.82 2816.18 4505.69 5957.46 7427.52
2024-04-21 1690.86 393.63 492.13 646.58 1001.53 2784.79 4455.47 5891.06 7344.74
2024-04-28 1635.75 380.80 476.09 625.51 968.89 2694.04 4310.27 5699.07 7105.37
2024-05-05 1550.28 360.90 451.22 592.82 918.27 2553.27 4085.05 5401.29 6734.11
2024-05-12 1442.40 335.79 419.82 551.57 854.36 2375.59 3800.77 5025.42 6265.49
2024-05-19 1320.72 307.46 384.40 505.04 782.29 2175.19 3480.15 4601.48 5736.94
2024-05-26 1193.17 277.77 347.28 456.27 706.74 1965.12 3144.04 4157.08 5182.88
2024-06-02 1066.17 248.20 310.31 407.70 631.51 1755.95 2809.39 3714.60 4631.22
2024-06-09 944.36 219.84 274.86 361.12 559.37 1555.34 2488.43 3290.22 4102.12
2024-06-16 830.73 193.39 241.79 317.67 492.06 1368.18 2189.00 2894.31 3608.51
2024-06-23 726.88 169.21 211.56 277.96 430.55 1197.15 1915.35 2532.49 3157.41
2024-06-30 633.42 147.46 184.36 242.22 375.19 1043.22 1669.07 2206.86 2751.43
2024-07-07 550.26 128.10 160.16 210.42 325.93 906.26 1449.95 1917.14 2390.21
2024-07-14 476.90 111.02 138.80 182.37 282.48 785.44 1256.65 1661.55 2071.55
2024-07-21 412.59 96.05 120.09 157.77 244.39 679.53 1087.20 1437.50 1792.22
2024-07-28 356.49 82.99 103.76 136.32 211.15 587.12 939.36 1242.03 1548.51
2024-08-04 307.71 71.63 89.56 117.67 182.26 506.79 810.82 1072.07 1336.62
2024-08-11 265.41 61.79 77.25 101.49 157.21 437.12 699.36 924.70 1152.88
2024-08-18 228.80 53.26 66.59 87.49 135.52 376.82 602.89 797.15 993.85
2024-08-25 197.16 45.90 57.38 75.39 116.78 324.71 519.52 686.91 856.41
2024-09-01 169.84 39.54 49.43 64.95 100.60 279.73 447.54 591.74 737.76
2024-09-08 146.28 34.05 42.58 55.94 86.64 240.92 385.45 509.64 635.40
2024-09-15 125.96 29.32 36.66 48.17 74.61 207.46 331.92 438.86 547.16
2024-09-22 108.46 25.25 31.57 41.47 64.24 178.62 285.78 377.87 471.11
2024-09-29 51.27 11.94 14.92 19.61 30.37 84.44 135.10 178.63 222.71
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