Prediction 2933
| Model | LNCC-SURGE-2025-1 |
|---|---|
| Author | Americo Cunha Jr |
| ADM 1 | EspĂrito Santo |
Description:
Validation test 2 for UF=ES (Model1 AR_p)
Show Table
| date | pred | lower_95 | lower_90 | lower_80 | lower_50 | upper_50 | upper_80 | upper_90 | upper_95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-10-08 | 50.58 | 6.89 | 9.33 | 13.79 | 25.61 | 96.94 | 180.17 | 257.77 | 344.60 |
| 2023-10-15 | 58.76 | 8.00 | 10.83 | 16.02 | 29.75 | 112.61 | 209.30 | 299.45 | 400.31 |
| 2023-10-22 | 68.26 | 9.30 | 12.59 | 18.61 | 34.56 | 130.81 | 243.13 | 347.85 | 465.02 |
| 2023-10-29 | 79.28 | 10.80 | 14.62 | 21.62 | 40.14 | 151.95 | 282.42 | 404.05 | 540.15 |
| 2023-11-05 | 92.09 | 12.54 | 16.98 | 25.11 | 46.63 | 176.48 | 328.02 | 469.30 | 627.37 |
| 2023-11-12 | 106.94 | 14.57 | 19.72 | 29.16 | 54.15 | 204.96 | 380.94 | 545.02 | 728.59 |
| 2023-11-19 | 124.18 | 16.92 | 22.90 | 33.86 | 62.88 | 237.99 | 442.34 | 632.86 | 846.02 |
| 2023-11-26 | 144.17 | 19.64 | 26.58 | 39.31 | 73.00 | 276.29 | 513.53 | 734.71 | 982.18 |
| 2023-12-03 | 167.32 | 22.79 | 30.85 | 45.62 | 84.72 | 320.67 | 596.02 | 852.73 | 1139.95 |
| 2023-12-10 | 194.13 | 26.44 | 35.80 | 52.93 | 98.30 | 372.05 | 691.51 | 989.35 | 1322.58 |
| 2023-12-17 | 225.12 | 30.67 | 41.51 | 61.38 | 113.99 | 431.44 | 801.91 | 1147.29 | 1533.73 |
| 2023-12-24 | 260.89 | 35.54 | 48.11 | 71.13 | 132.10 | 500.00 | 929.33 | 1329.59 | 1777.43 |
| 2023-12-31 | 302.08 | 41.15 | 55.70 | 82.36 | 152.96 | 578.94 | 1076.05 | 1539.50 | 2058.04 |
| 2024-01-07 | 349.36 | 47.59 | 64.42 | 95.25 | 176.90 | 669.55 | 1244.47 | 1780.46 | 2380.16 |
| 2024-01-14 | 403.41 | 54.95 | 74.39 | 109.99 | 204.26 | 773.13 | 1436.99 | 2055.90 | 2748.37 |
| 2024-01-21 | 464.84 | 63.32 | 85.72 | 126.74 | 235.37 | 890.86 | 1655.82 | 2368.98 | 3166.91 |
| 2024-01-28 | 534.14 | 72.76 | 98.50 | 145.63 | 270.46 | 1023.68 | 1902.68 | 2722.16 | 3639.05 |
| 2024-02-04 | 611.53 | 83.30 | 112.77 | 166.73 | 309.64 | 1171.99 | 2178.33 | 3116.54 | 4166.25 |
| 2024-02-11 | 696.77 | 94.91 | 128.48 | 189.97 | 352.80 | 1335.34 | 2481.95 | 3550.93 | 4746.97 |
| 2024-02-18 | 788.95 | 107.47 | 145.48 | 215.10 | 399.48 | 1512.01 | 2810.32 | 4020.73 | 5374.99 |
| 2024-02-25 | 886.22 | 120.72 | 163.42 | 241.62 | 448.73 | 1698.43 | 3156.80 | 4516.44 | 6037.68 |
| 2024-03-03 | 985.51 | 134.25 | 181.73 | 268.69 | 499.00 | 1888.71 | 3510.48 | 5022.45 | 6714.12 |
| 2024-03-10 | 1082.37 | 147.44 | 199.59 | 295.10 | 548.05 | 2074.35 | 3855.53 | 5516.11 | 7374.05 |
| 2024-03-17 | 1171.08 | 159.53 | 215.95 | 319.29 | 592.97 | 2244.36 | 4171.51 | 5968.19 | 7978.40 |
| 2024-03-24 | 1245.05 | 169.60 | 229.59 | 339.46 | 630.42 | 2386.13 | 4435.01 | 6345.18 | 8482.37 |
| 2024-03-31 | 1297.78 | 176.78 | 239.31 | 353.83 | 657.12 | 2487.17 | 4622.81 | 6613.86 | 8841.56 |
| 2024-04-07 | 1323.99 | 180.36 | 244.14 | 360.98 | 670.39 | 2537.42 | 4716.20 | 6747.48 | 9020.18 |
| 2024-04-14 | 1320.90 | 179.93 | 243.57 | 360.14 | 668.83 | 2531.49 | 4705.20 | 6731.73 | 8999.13 |
| 2024-04-21 | 1288.84 | 175.57 | 237.66 | 351.40 | 652.59 | 2470.05 | 4590.99 | 6568.34 | 8780.70 |
| 2024-04-28 | 1231.20 | 167.72 | 227.03 | 335.68 | 623.41 | 2359.59 | 4385.68 | 6274.59 | 8388.01 |
| 2024-05-05 | 1153.61 | 157.15 | 212.72 | 314.52 | 584.12 | 2210.87 | 4109.27 | 5879.14 | 7859.37 |
| 2024-05-12 | 1062.68 | 144.76 | 195.96 | 289.73 | 538.08 | 2036.61 | 3785.37 | 5415.74 | 7239.88 |
| 2024-05-19 | 964.88 | 131.44 | 177.92 | 263.07 | 488.56 | 1849.17 | 3436.99 | 4917.30 | 6573.56 |
| 2024-05-26 | 865.69 | 117.92 | 159.63 | 236.02 | 438.33 | 1659.08 | 3083.67 | 4411.81 | 5897.80 |
| 2024-06-02 | 769.27 | 104.79 | 141.85 | 209.74 | 389.51 | 1474.29 | 2740.21 | 3920.42 | 5240.90 |
| 2024-06-09 | 678.41 | 92.41 | 125.10 | 184.97 | 343.51 | 1300.17 | 2416.57 | 3457.40 | 4621.92 |
| 2024-06-16 | 594.76 | 81.02 | 109.67 | 162.16 | 301.15 | 1139.85 | 2118.60 | 3031.08 | 4052.01 |
| 2024-06-23 | 519.06 | 70.71 | 95.71 | 141.52 | 262.82 | 994.77 | 1848.93 | 2645.27 | 3536.26 |
| 2024-06-30 | 451.42 | 61.49 | 83.24 | 123.08 | 228.57 | 865.14 | 1608.01 | 2300.59 | 3075.47 |
| 2024-07-07 | 391.57 | 53.34 | 72.21 | 106.76 | 198.27 | 750.44 | 1394.82 | 1995.57 | 2667.73 |
| 2024-07-14 | 338.99 | 46.18 | 62.51 | 92.42 | 171.64 | 649.66 | 1207.51 | 1727.58 | 2309.47 |
| 2024-07-21 | 293.03 | 39.92 | 54.03 | 79.89 | 148.37 | 561.59 | 1043.80 | 1493.37 | 1996.37 |
| 2024-07-28 | 253.02 | 34.47 | 46.66 | 68.99 | 128.12 | 484.92 | 901.30 | 1289.49 | 1723.82 |
| 2024-08-04 | 218.30 | 29.74 | 40.25 | 59.52 | 110.53 | 418.37 | 777.60 | 1112.52 | 1487.24 |
| 2024-08-11 | 188.22 | 25.64 | 34.71 | 51.32 | 95.31 | 360.73 | 670.48 | 959.25 | 1282.35 |
| 2024-08-18 | 162.22 | 22.10 | 29.91 | 44.23 | 82.14 | 310.89 | 577.84 | 826.72 | 1105.18 |
| 2024-08-25 | 139.76 | 19.04 | 25.77 | 38.10 | 70.77 | 267.85 | 497.84 | 712.26 | 952.16 |
| 2024-09-01 | 120.38 | 16.40 | 22.20 | 32.82 | 60.95 | 230.70 | 428.80 | 613.49 | 820.12 |
| 2024-09-08 | 103.67 | 14.12 | 19.12 | 28.26 | 52.49 | 198.68 | 369.27 | 528.32 | 706.26 |
| 2024-09-15 | 89.26 | 12.16 | 16.46 | 24.34 | 45.20 | 171.07 | 317.96 | 454.91 | 608.13 |
| 2024-09-22 | 76.85 | 10.47 | 14.17 | 20.95 | 38.91 | 147.28 | 273.75 | 391.66 | 523.57 |
| 2024-09-29 | 43.54 | 5.93 | 8.03 | 11.87 | 22.05 | 83.44 | 155.09 | 221.89 | 296.63 |
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