Prediction 2933

Dengue Sprint2425 Python Temporal Quantitative Weekly ADM 1
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Model LNCC-SURGE-2025-1
Author Americo Cunha Jr
ADM 1 Espírito Santo

Description:

Validation test 2 for UF=ES (Model1 AR_p)


Show Table
date pred lower_95 lower_90 lower_80 lower_50 upper_50 upper_80 upper_90 upper_95
2023-10-08 50.58 6.89 9.33 13.79 25.61 96.94 180.17 257.77 344.60
2023-10-15 58.76 8.00 10.83 16.02 29.75 112.61 209.30 299.45 400.31
2023-10-22 68.26 9.30 12.59 18.61 34.56 130.81 243.13 347.85 465.02
2023-10-29 79.28 10.80 14.62 21.62 40.14 151.95 282.42 404.05 540.15
2023-11-05 92.09 12.54 16.98 25.11 46.63 176.48 328.02 469.30 627.37
2023-11-12 106.94 14.57 19.72 29.16 54.15 204.96 380.94 545.02 728.59
2023-11-19 124.18 16.92 22.90 33.86 62.88 237.99 442.34 632.86 846.02
2023-11-26 144.17 19.64 26.58 39.31 73.00 276.29 513.53 734.71 982.18
2023-12-03 167.32 22.79 30.85 45.62 84.72 320.67 596.02 852.73 1139.95
2023-12-10 194.13 26.44 35.80 52.93 98.30 372.05 691.51 989.35 1322.58
2023-12-17 225.12 30.67 41.51 61.38 113.99 431.44 801.91 1147.29 1533.73
2023-12-24 260.89 35.54 48.11 71.13 132.10 500.00 929.33 1329.59 1777.43
2023-12-31 302.08 41.15 55.70 82.36 152.96 578.94 1076.05 1539.50 2058.04
2024-01-07 349.36 47.59 64.42 95.25 176.90 669.55 1244.47 1780.46 2380.16
2024-01-14 403.41 54.95 74.39 109.99 204.26 773.13 1436.99 2055.90 2748.37
2024-01-21 464.84 63.32 85.72 126.74 235.37 890.86 1655.82 2368.98 3166.91
2024-01-28 534.14 72.76 98.50 145.63 270.46 1023.68 1902.68 2722.16 3639.05
2024-02-04 611.53 83.30 112.77 166.73 309.64 1171.99 2178.33 3116.54 4166.25
2024-02-11 696.77 94.91 128.48 189.97 352.80 1335.34 2481.95 3550.93 4746.97
2024-02-18 788.95 107.47 145.48 215.10 399.48 1512.01 2810.32 4020.73 5374.99
2024-02-25 886.22 120.72 163.42 241.62 448.73 1698.43 3156.80 4516.44 6037.68
2024-03-03 985.51 134.25 181.73 268.69 499.00 1888.71 3510.48 5022.45 6714.12
2024-03-10 1082.37 147.44 199.59 295.10 548.05 2074.35 3855.53 5516.11 7374.05
2024-03-17 1171.08 159.53 215.95 319.29 592.97 2244.36 4171.51 5968.19 7978.40
2024-03-24 1245.05 169.60 229.59 339.46 630.42 2386.13 4435.01 6345.18 8482.37
2024-03-31 1297.78 176.78 239.31 353.83 657.12 2487.17 4622.81 6613.86 8841.56
2024-04-07 1323.99 180.36 244.14 360.98 670.39 2537.42 4716.20 6747.48 9020.18
2024-04-14 1320.90 179.93 243.57 360.14 668.83 2531.49 4705.20 6731.73 8999.13
2024-04-21 1288.84 175.57 237.66 351.40 652.59 2470.05 4590.99 6568.34 8780.70
2024-04-28 1231.20 167.72 227.03 335.68 623.41 2359.59 4385.68 6274.59 8388.01
2024-05-05 1153.61 157.15 212.72 314.52 584.12 2210.87 4109.27 5879.14 7859.37
2024-05-12 1062.68 144.76 195.96 289.73 538.08 2036.61 3785.37 5415.74 7239.88
2024-05-19 964.88 131.44 177.92 263.07 488.56 1849.17 3436.99 4917.30 6573.56
2024-05-26 865.69 117.92 159.63 236.02 438.33 1659.08 3083.67 4411.81 5897.80
2024-06-02 769.27 104.79 141.85 209.74 389.51 1474.29 2740.21 3920.42 5240.90
2024-06-09 678.41 92.41 125.10 184.97 343.51 1300.17 2416.57 3457.40 4621.92
2024-06-16 594.76 81.02 109.67 162.16 301.15 1139.85 2118.60 3031.08 4052.01
2024-06-23 519.06 70.71 95.71 141.52 262.82 994.77 1848.93 2645.27 3536.26
2024-06-30 451.42 61.49 83.24 123.08 228.57 865.14 1608.01 2300.59 3075.47
2024-07-07 391.57 53.34 72.21 106.76 198.27 750.44 1394.82 1995.57 2667.73
2024-07-14 338.99 46.18 62.51 92.42 171.64 649.66 1207.51 1727.58 2309.47
2024-07-21 293.03 39.92 54.03 79.89 148.37 561.59 1043.80 1493.37 1996.37
2024-07-28 253.02 34.47 46.66 68.99 128.12 484.92 901.30 1289.49 1723.82
2024-08-04 218.30 29.74 40.25 59.52 110.53 418.37 777.60 1112.52 1487.24
2024-08-11 188.22 25.64 34.71 51.32 95.31 360.73 670.48 959.25 1282.35
2024-08-18 162.22 22.10 29.91 44.23 82.14 310.89 577.84 826.72 1105.18
2024-08-25 139.76 19.04 25.77 38.10 70.77 267.85 497.84 712.26 952.16
2024-09-01 120.38 16.40 22.20 32.82 60.95 230.70 428.80 613.49 820.12
2024-09-08 103.67 14.12 19.12 28.26 52.49 198.68 369.27 528.32 706.26
2024-09-15 89.26 12.16 16.46 24.34 45.20 171.07 317.96 454.91 608.13
2024-09-22 76.85 10.47 14.17 20.95 38.91 147.28 273.75 391.66 523.57
2024-09-29 43.54 5.93 8.03 11.87 22.05 83.44 155.09 221.89 296.63
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