Prediction 2936

Dengue Sprint2425 Python Temporal Quantitative Weekly ADM 1
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Model LNCC-SURGE-2025-1
Author Americo Cunha Jr
ADM 1 Minas Gerais

Description:

Validation test 2 for UF=MG (Model1 AR_p)


Show Table
date pred lower_95 lower_90 lower_80 lower_50 upper_50 upper_80 upper_90 upper_95
2023-10-08 106.72 7.20 12.04 19.33 42.93 264.35 604.78 968.27 1477.87
2023-10-15 131.80 8.89 14.87 23.87 53.01 326.46 746.89 1195.79 1825.15
2023-10-22 162.76 10.98 18.36 29.48 65.47 403.17 922.38 1476.76 2253.99
2023-10-29 201.00 13.56 22.68 36.41 80.85 497.89 1139.07 1823.69 2783.51
2023-11-05 248.21 16.75 28.00 44.96 99.84 614.83 1406.61 2252.02 3437.28
2023-11-12 306.49 20.68 34.58 55.52 123.28 759.18 1736.87 2780.78 4244.33
2023-11-19 378.42 25.53 42.69 68.54 152.21 937.34 2144.47 3433.34 5240.34
2023-11-26 467.15 31.52 52.70 84.62 187.90 1157.13 2647.31 4238.40 6469.11
2023-12-03 576.55 38.90 65.04 104.43 231.90 1428.13 3267.30 5231.03 7984.16
2023-12-10 711.33 47.99 80.25 128.85 286.11 1761.97 4031.07 6453.84 9850.55
2023-12-17 877.14 59.18 98.96 158.88 352.81 2172.69 4970.72 7958.24 12146.73
2023-12-24 1080.72 72.92 121.92 195.76 434.69 2676.96 6124.41 9805.32 14965.95
2023-12-31 1329.91 89.73 150.03 240.89 534.92 3294.19 7536.53 12066.17 18416.70
2024-01-07 1633.49 110.21 184.28 295.88 657.03 4046.16 9256.91 14820.53 22620.70
2024-01-14 2000.71 134.99 225.71 362.40 804.73 4955.77 11337.93 18152.31 27706.01
2024-01-21 2440.13 164.63 275.29 441.99 981.48 6044.23 13828.13 22139.18 33791.20
2024-01-28 2957.41 199.53 333.64 535.69 1189.54 7325.53 16759.51 26832.38 40954.48
2024-02-04 3551.42 239.61 400.66 643.29 1428.47 8796.90 20125.75 32221.82 49180.43
2024-02-11 4208.49 283.94 474.79 762.31 1692.76 10424.48 23849.35 38183.40 58279.63
2024-02-18 4895.25 330.28 552.26 886.70 1968.99 12125.59 27741.18 44414.32 67789.93
2024-02-25 5553.05 374.66 626.47 1005.85 2233.57 13754.97 31468.93 50382.53 76899.27
2024-03-03 6099.91 411.55 688.17 1104.91 2453.53 15109.54 34567.95 55344.14 84472.21
2024-03-10 6446.42 434.93 727.26 1167.68 2592.91 15967.86 36531.63 58488.04 89270.76
2024-03-17 6525.25 440.25 736.15 1181.95 2624.62 16163.12 36978.34 59203.24 90362.38
2024-03-24 6319.87 426.40 712.98 1144.75 2542.01 15654.39 35814.45 57339.82 87518.23
2024-03-31 5872.39 396.20 662.50 1063.70 2362.02 14545.97 33278.60 53279.85 81321.47
2024-04-07 5264.21 355.17 593.89 953.53 2117.39 13039.50 29832.06 47761.87 72899.32
2024-04-14 4584.38 309.30 517.19 830.39 1843.95 11355.56 25979.51 41593.83 63485.00
2024-04-21 3905.36 263.49 440.59 707.40 1570.83 9673.63 22131.56 35433.16 54081.92
2024-04-28 3274.00 220.89 369.36 593.04 1316.88 8109.74 18553.65 29704.85 45338.76
2024-05-05 2713.88 183.10 306.17 491.58 1091.59 6722.32 15379.47 24622.91 37582.14
2024-05-12 2232.16 150.60 251.82 404.32 897.83 5529.10 12649.59 20252.31 30911.26
2024-05-19 1826.31 123.22 206.04 330.81 734.59 4523.79 10349.63 16570.01 25290.93
2024-05-26 1488.98 100.46 167.98 269.71 598.91 3688.23 8438.02 13509.47 20619.61
2024-06-02 1211.12 81.71 136.63 219.38 487.14 2999.95 6863.36 10988.41 16771.70
2024-06-09 983.58 66.36 110.96 178.16 395.62 2436.33 5573.89 8923.94 13620.68
2024-06-16 797.97 53.84 90.02 144.54 320.96 1976.57 4522.05 7239.92 11050.34
2024-06-23 646.95 43.65 72.99 117.19 260.22 1602.50 3666.23 5869.72 8959.00
2024-06-30 524.28 35.37 59.15 94.97 210.88 1298.64 2971.06 4756.73 7260.24
2024-07-07 424.74 28.66 47.92 76.94 170.84 1052.09 2407.00 3853.66 5881.88
2024-07-14 344.04 23.21 38.81 62.32 138.38 852.19 1949.65 3121.44 4764.28
2024-07-21 278.63 18.80 31.43 50.47 112.07 690.18 1579.01 2528.03 3858.56
2024-07-28 225.65 15.22 25.46 40.87 90.76 558.93 1278.72 2047.27 3124.76
2024-08-04 182.72 12.33 20.61 33.10 73.50 452.61 1035.49 1657.84 2530.37
2024-08-11 147.96 9.98 16.69 26.80 59.51 366.50 838.49 1342.44 2048.98
2024-08-18 119.81 8.08 13.52 21.70 48.19 296.77 678.95 1087.02 1659.13
2024-08-25 97.01 6.55 10.94 17.57 39.02 240.30 549.76 880.19 1343.43
2024-09-01 78.55 5.30 8.86 14.23 31.60 194.57 445.15 712.70 1087.80
2024-09-08 63.60 4.29 7.18 11.52 25.58 157.55 360.44 577.08 880.80
2024-09-15 51.50 3.47 5.81 9.33 20.71 127.57 291.85 467.26 713.19
2024-09-22 41.70 2.81 4.70 7.55 16.77 103.29 236.31 378.34 577.47
2024-09-29 86.41 5.83 9.75 15.65 34.76 214.05 489.70 784.02 1196.66
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