Prediction 2937

Dengue Sprint2425 Python Temporal Quantitative Weekly ADM 1
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Model LNCC-SURGE-2025-1
Author Americo Cunha Jr
ADM 1 Mato Grosso do Sul

Description:

Validation test 2 for UF=MS (Model1 AR_p)


Show Table
date pred lower_95 lower_90 lower_80 lower_50 upper_50 upper_80 upper_90 upper_95
2023-10-08 36.57 2.22 3.46 5.84 13.75 98.00 247.40 416.50 670.12
2023-10-15 43.48 2.64 4.11 6.94 16.35 116.54 294.19 495.26 796.84
2023-10-22 51.70 3.14 4.89 8.26 19.44 138.56 349.79 588.87 947.45
2023-10-29 61.47 3.73 5.81 9.82 23.11 164.74 415.87 700.10 1126.43
2023-11-05 73.07 4.44 6.91 11.67 27.48 195.83 494.36 832.24 1339.03
2023-11-12 86.85 5.28 8.21 13.87 32.66 232.75 587.56 989.14 1591.47
2023-11-19 103.19 6.27 9.76 16.48 38.80 276.55 698.14 1175.30 1890.99
2023-11-26 122.57 7.45 11.59 19.57 46.09 328.48 829.22 1395.97 2246.04
2023-12-03 145.51 8.84 13.76 23.24 54.71 389.95 984.39 1657.20 2666.33
2023-12-10 172.61 10.48 16.32 27.56 64.90 462.57 1167.72 1965.84 3162.92
2023-12-17 204.54 12.42 19.34 32.66 76.91 548.15 1383.75 2329.52 3748.06
2023-12-24 242.02 14.70 22.88 38.65 91.00 648.60 1637.33 2756.41 4434.91
2023-12-31 285.78 17.36 27.02 45.64 107.45 765.87 1933.38 3254.82 5236.81
2024-01-07 336.49 20.44 31.81 53.73 126.52 901.76 2276.42 3832.30 6165.95
2024-01-14 394.61 23.97 37.31 63.02 148.38 1057.53 2669.65 4494.31 7231.08
2024-01-21 460.25 27.96 43.51 73.50 173.06 1233.44 3113.72 5241.89 8433.90
2024-01-28 532.83 32.36 50.38 85.09 200.35 1427.95 3604.74 6068.51 9763.88
2024-02-04 610.74 37.10 57.74 97.53 229.64 1636.74 4131.83 6955.85 11191.56
2024-02-11 690.96 41.97 65.33 110.34 259.80 1851.71 4674.51 7869.45 12661.49
2024-02-18 768.77 46.70 72.68 122.77 289.06 2060.24 5200.93 8755.67 14087.35
2024-02-25 837.89 50.89 79.22 133.81 315.05 2245.47 5668.51 9542.84 15353.87
2024-03-03 891.16 54.13 84.25 142.31 335.08 2388.23 6028.91 10149.55 16330.04
2024-03-10 922.00 56.00 87.17 147.24 346.67 2470.89 6237.57 10500.83 16895.22
2024-03-17 926.15 56.26 87.56 147.90 348.24 2482.01 6265.66 10548.12 16971.30
2024-03-24 903.02 54.85 85.37 144.21 339.54 2420.01 6109.12 10284.60 16547.31
2024-03-31 855.85 51.99 80.91 136.67 321.80 2293.61 5790.04 9747.42 15683.04
2024-04-07 790.73 48.03 74.76 126.27 297.32 2119.09 5349.47 9005.74 14489.70
2024-04-14 714.80 43.42 67.58 114.15 268.77 1915.62 4835.83 8141.02 13098.43
2024-04-21 634.74 38.55 60.01 101.36 238.66 1701.04 4294.14 7229.11 11631.22
2024-04-28 555.74 33.76 52.54 88.75 208.96 1489.34 3759.73 6329.44 10183.70
2024-05-05 481.34 29.24 45.51 76.87 180.98 1289.95 3256.37 5482.04 8820.28
2024-05-12 413.52 25.12 39.09 66.04 155.48 1108.19 2797.55 4709.62 7577.50
2024-05-19 353.12 21.45 33.39 56.39 132.78 946.34 2388.97 4021.79 6470.82
2024-05-26 300.23 18.24 28.38 47.95 112.89 804.59 2031.14 3419.38 5501.58
2024-06-02 254.45 15.46 24.06 40.63 95.67 681.91 1721.43 2897.99 4662.70
2024-06-09 215.16 13.07 20.34 34.36 80.90 576.62 1455.62 2450.52 3942.74
2024-06-16 181.64 11.03 17.17 29.01 68.30 486.79 1228.86 2068.76 3328.51
2024-06-23 153.17 9.30 14.48 24.46 57.59 410.47 1036.21 1744.44 2806.70
2024-06-30 129.05 7.84 12.20 20.61 48.52 345.84 873.04 1469.75 2364.74
2024-07-07 108.66 6.60 10.27 17.35 40.86 291.21 735.14 1237.59 1991.21
2024-07-14 91.46 5.56 8.65 14.61 34.39 245.11 618.76 1041.67 1675.98
2024-07-21 76.96 4.67 7.28 12.29 28.94 206.24 520.65 876.50 1410.24
2024-07-28 64.74 3.93 6.12 10.34 24.34 173.51 438.00 737.37 1186.39
2024-08-04 54.46 3.31 5.15 8.70 20.48 145.94 368.42 620.23 997.92
2024-08-11 45.80 2.78 4.33 7.31 17.22 122.75 309.86 521.65 839.30
2024-08-18 38.52 2.34 3.64 6.15 14.48 103.23 260.59 438.70 705.85
2024-08-25 32.39 1.97 3.06 5.17 12.18 86.81 219.14 368.93 593.58
2024-09-01 27.24 1.65 2.58 4.35 10.24 73.00 184.28 310.24 499.15
2024-09-08 22.91 1.39 2.17 3.66 8.61 61.39 154.96 260.88 419.73
2024-09-15 19.26 1.17 1.82 3.08 7.24 51.62 130.30 219.36 352.94
2024-09-22 16.20 0.98 1.53 2.59 6.09 43.40 109.57 184.46 296.78
2024-09-29 30.75 1.87 2.91 4.91 11.56 82.41 208.05 350.25 563.53
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