Prediction 2939

Dengue Sprint2425 Python Temporal Quantitative Weekly ADM 1
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Model LNCC-SURGE-2025-1
Author Americo Cunha Jr
ADM 1 Pará

Description:

Validation test 2 for UF=PA (Model1 AR_p)


Show Table
date pred lower_95 lower_90 lower_80 lower_50 upper_50 upper_80 upper_90 upper_95
2023-10-08 11.23 3.49 4.22 5.24 7.57 16.94 24.81 30.18 36.19
2023-10-15 13.05 4.06 4.90 6.09 8.79 19.68 28.82 35.06 42.04
2023-10-22 15.16 4.72 5.69 7.08 10.22 22.86 33.48 40.73 48.84
2023-10-29 17.61 5.48 6.61 8.22 11.87 26.55 38.89 47.31 56.73
2023-11-05 20.46 6.36 7.68 9.55 13.78 30.84 45.17 54.95 65.89
2023-11-12 23.76 7.39 8.92 11.09 16.01 35.82 52.46 63.83 76.53
2023-11-19 27.59 8.58 10.36 12.88 18.59 41.59 60.92 74.12 88.88
2023-11-26 32.04 9.97 12.03 14.95 21.59 48.30 70.74 86.06 103.19
2023-12-03 37.19 11.57 13.96 17.36 25.06 56.06 82.11 99.90 119.79
2023-12-10 43.16 13.43 16.20 20.14 29.08 65.06 95.29 115.93 139.01
2023-12-17 50.06 15.57 18.80 23.37 33.73 75.47 110.54 134.48 161.26
2023-12-24 58.04 18.06 21.79 27.09 39.11 87.50 128.15 155.91 186.96
2023-12-31 67.24 20.92 25.25 31.39 45.31 101.37 148.47 180.63 216.59
2024-01-07 77.82 24.21 29.22 36.33 52.44 117.32 171.84 209.06 250.68
2024-01-14 89.95 27.98 33.77 41.99 60.61 135.61 198.62 241.64 289.75
2024-01-21 103.79 32.29 38.97 48.45 69.94 156.47 229.17 278.82 334.32
2024-01-28 119.47 37.17 44.86 55.77 80.50 180.11 263.81 320.95 384.85
2024-02-04 137.10 42.65 51.48 64.00 92.38 206.69 302.73 368.31 441.63
2024-02-11 156.69 48.74 58.83 73.14 105.58 236.22 345.98 420.93 504.73
2024-02-18 178.12 55.41 66.88 83.15 120.02 268.53 393.31 478.51 573.77
2024-02-25 201.10 62.56 75.51 93.87 135.51 303.17 444.04 540.23 647.78
2024-03-03 225.05 70.01 84.50 105.05 151.65 339.28 496.93 604.58 724.94
2024-03-10 249.11 77.50 93.53 116.28 167.86 375.55 550.06 669.21 802.44
2024-03-17 272.06 84.64 102.15 127.00 183.32 410.15 600.73 730.86 876.37
2024-03-24 292.41 90.97 109.79 136.49 197.03 440.83 645.66 785.52 941.91
2024-03-31 308.53 95.98 115.84 144.02 207.90 465.13 681.26 828.83 993.84
2024-04-07 318.93 99.21 119.75 148.87 214.90 480.80 704.21 856.75 1027.32
2024-04-14 322.52 100.33 121.09 150.55 217.32 486.22 712.15 866.41 1038.90
2024-04-21 318.93 99.21 119.75 148.87 214.90 480.80 704.21 856.75 1027.32
2024-04-28 308.53 95.98 115.84 144.02 207.90 465.13 681.26 828.83 993.84
2024-05-05 292.41 90.97 109.79 136.49 197.03 440.83 645.66 785.52 941.91
2024-05-12 272.06 84.64 102.15 127.00 183.32 410.15 600.73 730.86 876.37
2024-05-19 249.11 77.50 93.53 116.28 167.86 375.55 550.06 669.21 802.44
2024-05-26 225.05 70.01 84.50 105.05 151.65 339.28 496.93 604.58 724.94
2024-06-02 201.10 62.56 75.51 93.87 135.51 303.17 444.04 540.23 647.78
2024-06-09 178.12 55.41 66.88 83.15 120.02 268.53 393.31 478.51 573.77
2024-06-16 156.69 48.74 58.83 73.14 105.58 236.22 345.98 420.93 504.73
2024-06-23 137.10 42.65 51.48 64.00 92.38 206.69 302.73 368.31 441.63
2024-06-30 119.47 37.17 44.86 55.77 80.50 180.11 263.81 320.95 384.85
2024-07-07 103.79 32.29 38.97 48.45 69.94 156.47 229.17 278.82 334.32
2024-07-14 89.95 27.98 33.77 41.99 60.61 135.61 198.62 241.64 289.75
2024-07-21 77.82 24.21 29.22 36.33 52.44 117.32 171.84 209.06 250.68
2024-07-28 67.24 20.92 25.25 31.39 45.31 101.37 148.47 180.63 216.59
2024-08-04 58.04 18.06 21.79 27.09 39.11 87.50 128.15 155.91 186.96
2024-08-11 50.06 15.57 18.80 23.37 33.73 75.47 110.54 134.48 161.26
2024-08-18 43.16 13.43 16.20 20.14 29.08 65.06 95.29 115.93 139.01
2024-08-25 37.19 11.57 13.96 17.36 25.06 56.06 82.11 99.90 119.79
2024-09-01 32.04 9.97 12.03 14.95 21.59 48.30 70.74 86.06 103.19
2024-09-08 27.59 8.58 10.36 12.88 18.59 41.59 60.92 74.12 88.88
2024-09-15 23.76 7.39 8.92 11.09 16.01 35.82 52.46 63.83 76.53
2024-09-22 20.46 6.36 7.68 9.55 13.78 30.84 45.17 54.95 65.89
2024-09-29 9.67 3.01 3.63 4.51 6.52 14.58 21.35 25.98 31.15
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