Prediction 2941

Dengue Sprint2425 Python Temporal Quantitative Weekly ADM 1
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Model LNCC-SURGE-2025-1
Author Americo Cunha Jr
ADM 1 Pernambuco

Description:

Validation test 2 for UF=PE (Model1 AR_p)


Show Table
date pred lower_95 lower_90 lower_80 lower_50 upper_50 upper_80 upper_90 upper_95
2023-10-08 71.39 11.66 15.40 21.51 38.11 133.55 228.90 328.34 444.87
2023-10-15 82.91 13.54 17.88 24.98 44.25 155.08 265.82 381.29 516.61
2023-10-22 96.26 15.72 20.76 29.00 51.38 180.06 308.64 442.71 599.82
2023-10-29 111.74 18.25 24.10 33.66 59.64 209.02 358.27 513.90 696.28
2023-11-05 129.67 21.18 27.97 39.06 69.21 242.55 415.75 596.35 808.00
2023-11-12 150.41 24.57 32.44 45.31 80.28 281.36 482.26 691.75 937.26
2023-11-19 174.37 28.49 37.61 52.53 93.07 326.18 559.09 801.96 1086.58
2023-11-26 202.00 33.00 43.57 60.86 107.82 377.87 647.68 929.04 1258.75
2023-12-03 233.78 38.19 50.43 70.43 124.78 437.30 749.55 1075.16 1456.74
2023-12-10 270.18 44.14 58.28 81.40 144.21 505.40 866.28 1242.60 1683.60
2023-12-17 311.70 50.92 67.23 93.90 166.37 583.06 999.39 1433.53 1942.28
2023-12-24 358.73 58.60 77.38 108.07 191.48 671.03 1150.19 1649.84 2235.36
2023-12-31 411.56 67.23 88.77 123.99 219.67 769.84 1319.55 1892.78 2564.52
2024-01-07 470.19 76.81 101.42 141.65 250.97 879.53 1507.56 2162.45 2929.91
2024-01-14 534.27 87.28 115.24 160.95 285.17 999.39 1713.01 2457.15 3329.19
2024-01-21 602.83 98.48 130.03 181.61 321.77 1127.65 1932.84 2772.48 3756.44
2024-01-28 674.15 110.13 145.42 203.10 359.84 1261.05 2161.51 3100.49 4200.85
2024-02-04 745.55 121.79 160.82 224.61 397.95 1394.61 2390.43 3428.85 4645.74
2024-02-11 813.36 132.87 175.44 245.03 434.14 1521.44 2607.83 3740.69 5068.26
2024-02-18 873.08 142.62 188.32 263.02 466.02 1633.16 2799.31 4015.35 5440.40
2024-02-25 919.88 150.27 198.42 277.13 491.00 1720.71 2949.39 4230.63 5732.07
2024-03-03 949.38 155.09 204.78 286.01 506.75 1775.89 3043.97 4366.29 5915.88
2024-03-10 958.51 156.58 206.75 288.76 511.62 1792.97 3073.24 4408.27 5972.76
2024-03-17 946.28 154.58 204.11 285.08 505.09 1770.08 3034.02 4352.01 5896.54
2024-03-24 914.01 149.31 197.15 275.36 487.87 1709.72 2930.56 4203.61 5695.47
2024-03-31 865.01 141.31 186.58 260.59 461.71 1618.07 2773.46 3978.27 5390.15
2024-04-07 803.81 131.31 173.38 242.15 429.04 1503.58 2577.21 3696.77 5008.75
2024-04-14 735.21 120.10 158.58 221.49 392.43 1375.26 2357.27 3381.29 4581.30
2024-04-21 663.62 108.41 143.14 199.92 354.21 1241.34 2127.73 3052.03 4135.19
2024-04-28 592.56 96.80 127.81 178.51 316.29 1108.42 1899.89 2725.22 3692.40
2024-05-05 524.56 85.69 113.15 158.03 279.99 981.24 1681.89 2412.51 3268.71
2024-05-12 461.24 75.35 99.49 138.95 246.19 862.78 1478.86 2121.28 2874.12
2024-05-19 403.44 65.91 87.02 121.54 215.34 754.67 1293.55 1855.47 2513.98
2024-05-26 351.48 57.42 75.81 105.89 187.61 657.47 1126.93 1616.48 2190.16
2024-06-02 305.28 49.87 65.85 91.97 162.94 571.04 978.79 1403.99 1902.26
2024-06-09 264.54 43.21 57.06 79.69 141.20 494.84 848.18 1216.63 1648.41
2024-06-16 228.84 37.38 49.36 68.94 122.15 428.06 733.73 1052.46 1425.98
2024-06-23 197.71 32.30 42.65 59.56 105.53 369.82 633.90 909.27 1231.97
2024-06-30 170.64 27.88 36.81 51.41 91.08 319.20 547.13 784.80 1063.33
2024-07-07 147.18 24.04 31.75 44.34 78.56 275.31 471.89 676.89 917.11
2024-07-14 126.87 20.73 27.37 38.22 67.72 237.32 406.79 583.50 790.58
2024-07-21 109.32 17.86 23.58 32.94 58.35 204.50 350.52 502.79 681.24
2024-07-28 94.18 15.38 20.31 28.37 50.27 176.16 301.95 433.13 586.84
2024-08-04 81.11 13.25 17.50 24.44 43.29 151.72 260.06 373.03 505.42
2024-08-11 69.84 11.41 15.07 21.04 37.28 130.65 223.94 321.22 435.22
2024-08-18 60.14 9.82 12.97 18.12 32.10 112.49 192.81 276.57 374.72
2024-08-25 51.77 8.46 11.17 15.60 27.63 96.84 166.00 238.11 322.61
2024-09-01 44.57 7.28 9.61 13.43 23.79 83.37 142.90 204.98 277.73
2024-09-08 38.37 6.27 8.28 11.56 20.48 71.77 123.01 176.45 239.07
2024-09-15 33.03 5.40 7.12 9.95 17.63 61.78 105.89 151.89 205.79
2024-09-22 28.43 4.64 6.13 8.56 15.17 53.18 91.15 130.74 177.14
2024-09-29 61.47 10.04 13.26 18.52 32.81 114.98 197.09 282.71 383.04
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