Prediction 2942

Dengue Sprint2425 Python Temporal Quantitative Weekly ADM 1
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Model LNCC-SURGE-2025-1
Author Americo Cunha Jr
ADM 1 Piauí

Description:

Validation test 2 for UF=PI (Model1 AR_p)


Show Table
date pred lower_95 lower_90 lower_80 lower_50 upper_50 upper_80 upper_90 upper_95
2023-10-08 8.59 1.79 2.33 3.07 5.03 14.42 23.23 31.63 41.37
2023-10-15 10.30 2.15 2.79 3.68 6.03 17.28 27.84 37.91 49.58
2023-10-22 12.34 2.57 3.34 4.41 7.23 20.71 33.37 45.43 59.42
2023-10-29 14.79 3.08 4.01 5.28 8.67 24.82 39.99 54.45 71.21
2023-11-05 17.72 3.69 4.80 6.33 10.39 29.74 47.92 65.25 85.33
2023-11-12 21.24 4.43 5.75 7.58 12.44 35.64 57.42 78.18 102.25
2023-11-19 25.44 5.30 6.89 9.08 14.91 42.69 68.79 93.67 122.50
2023-11-26 30.48 6.35 8.26 10.88 17.86 51.14 82.40 112.20 146.74
2023-12-03 36.50 7.61 9.89 13.03 21.39 61.25 98.69 134.37 175.73
2023-12-10 43.69 9.11 11.84 15.60 25.61 73.32 118.14 160.87 210.38
2023-12-17 52.28 10.90 14.16 18.67 30.64 87.73 141.36 192.48 251.73
2023-12-24 62.51 13.03 16.93 22.32 36.63 104.90 169.02 230.14 300.98
2023-12-31 74.66 15.57 20.22 26.66 43.75 125.29 201.87 274.88 359.48
2024-01-07 89.04 18.56 24.12 31.79 52.18 149.42 240.75 327.82 428.72
2024-01-14 105.96 22.09 28.70 37.83 62.10 177.82 286.50 390.11 510.19
2024-01-21 125.72 26.21 34.05 44.88 73.67 210.97 339.92 462.85 605.31
2024-01-28 148.52 30.97 40.23 53.02 87.04 249.24 401.58 546.80 715.10
2024-02-04 174.42 36.37 47.24 62.27 102.21 292.70 471.61 642.16 839.81
2024-02-11 203.17 42.36 55.03 72.53 119.06 340.94 549.33 747.99 978.22
2024-02-18 234.04 48.80 63.39 83.55 137.15 392.75 632.80 861.65 1126.86
2024-02-25 265.67 55.39 71.96 94.85 155.69 445.82 718.32 978.10 1279.15
2024-03-03 295.92 61.70 80.16 105.65 173.42 496.60 800.13 1089.49 1424.83
2024-03-10 322.00 67.14 87.22 114.96 188.70 540.36 870.65 1185.51 1550.40
2024-03-17 340.83 71.06 92.32 121.68 199.73 571.95 921.55 1254.82 1641.04
2024-03-24 349.77 72.92 94.74 124.87 204.97 586.96 945.72 1287.73 1684.09
2024-03-31 347.45 72.44 94.11 124.05 203.61 583.07 939.46 1279.20 1672.93
2024-04-07 334.24 69.69 90.54 119.33 195.87 560.90 903.74 1230.57 1609.33
2024-04-14 312.11 65.07 84.54 111.43 182.90 523.76 843.89 1149.08 1502.76
2024-04-21 283.96 59.20 76.92 101.38 166.41 476.52 767.79 1045.45 1367.24
2024-04-28 252.84 52.72 68.49 90.27 148.17 424.30 683.65 930.88 1217.40
2024-05-05 221.31 46.14 59.95 79.01 129.69 371.38 598.38 814.78 1065.57
2024-05-12 191.17 39.86 51.78 68.25 112.03 320.82 516.91 703.85 920.48
2024-05-19 163.53 34.10 44.29 58.38 95.83 274.42 442.16 602.06 787.37
2024-05-26 138.88 28.96 37.62 49.58 81.39 233.06 375.50 511.30 668.68
2024-06-02 117.33 24.46 31.78 41.89 68.76 196.90 317.24 431.97 564.93
2024-06-09 98.76 20.59 26.75 35.26 57.87 165.73 267.03 363.60 475.51
2024-06-16 82.91 17.29 22.46 29.60 48.59 139.13 224.17 305.24 399.19
2024-06-23 69.47 14.48 18.82 24.80 40.71 116.58 187.84 255.77 334.50
2024-06-30 58.14 12.12 15.75 20.76 34.07 97.56 157.20 214.04 279.93
2024-07-07 48.61 10.13 13.17 17.35 28.49 81.57 131.43 178.96 234.04
2024-07-14 40.61 8.47 11.00 14.50 23.80 68.16 109.82 149.53 195.56
2024-07-21 33.92 7.07 9.19 12.11 19.88 56.92 91.72 124.89 163.32
2024-07-28 28.32 5.90 7.67 10.11 16.60 47.53 76.58 104.27 136.36
2024-08-04 23.64 4.93 6.40 8.44 13.85 39.67 63.92 87.04 113.83
2024-08-11 19.73 4.11 5.34 7.04 11.56 33.11 53.35 72.64 95.00
2024-08-18 16.47 3.43 4.46 5.88 9.65 27.63 44.52 60.62 79.28
2024-08-25 13.74 2.86 3.72 4.91 8.05 23.06 37.15 50.59 66.16
2024-09-01 11.47 2.39 3.11 4.09 6.72 19.24 31.00 42.21 55.20
2024-09-08 9.57 1.99 2.59 3.42 5.61 16.05 25.87 35.22 46.06
2024-09-15 7.98 1.66 2.16 2.85 4.68 13.39 21.58 29.39 38.43
2024-09-22 6.66 1.39 1.80 2.38 3.90 11.18 18.01 24.52 32.07
2024-09-29 7.17 1.49 1.94 2.56 4.20 12.03 19.38 26.39 34.52
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