Prediction 2943

Dengue Sprint2425 Python Temporal Quantitative Weekly ADM 1
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Model LNCC-SURGE-2025-1
Author Americo Cunha Jr
ADM 1 Paraná

Description:

Validation test 2 for UF=PR (Model1 AR_p)


Show Table
date pred lower_95 lower_90 lower_80 lower_50 upper_50 upper_80 upper_90 upper_95
2023-10-08 21.97 0.50 0.92 1.85 5.96 78.59 251.67 510.02 985.23
2023-10-15 27.50 0.63 1.15 2.31 7.46 98.38 315.03 638.42 1233.27
2023-10-22 34.42 0.78 1.44 2.89 9.34 123.14 394.33 799.13 1543.72
2023-10-29 43.08 0.98 1.80 3.62 11.70 154.14 493.59 1000.28 1932.29
2023-11-05 53.93 1.23 2.25 4.53 14.64 192.93 617.81 1252.03 2418.60
2023-11-12 67.50 1.54 2.82 5.68 18.32 241.48 773.26 1567.05 3027.14
2023-11-19 84.47 1.92 3.53 7.10 22.93 302.22 967.74 1961.19 3788.53
2023-11-26 105.71 2.41 4.42 8.89 28.70 378.18 1211.01 2454.18 4740.86
2023-12-03 132.26 3.01 5.52 11.12 35.90 473.16 1515.14 3070.53 5931.48
2023-12-10 165.42 3.77 6.91 13.91 44.91 591.82 1895.11 3840.56 7418.99
2023-12-17 206.81 4.71 8.64 17.39 56.14 739.91 2369.31 4801.55 9275.37
2023-12-24 258.38 5.89 10.79 21.73 70.14 924.40 2960.07 5998.77 11588.10
2023-12-31 322.45 7.35 13.47 27.11 87.53 1153.62 3694.09 7486.29 14461.61
2024-01-07 401.72 9.15 16.78 33.78 109.05 1437.23 4602.24 9326.73 18016.87
2024-01-14 499.16 11.37 20.85 41.97 135.50 1785.82 5718.49 11588.87 22386.75
2024-01-21 617.70 14.08 25.80 51.94 167.68 2209.91 7076.48 14340.93 27703.02
2024-01-28 759.62 17.31 31.73 63.87 206.21 2717.65 8702.37 17635.88 34068.04
2024-02-04 925.37 21.09 38.65 77.81 251.20 3310.65 10601.24 21484.05 41501.72
2024-02-11 1111.63 25.33 46.43 93.47 301.77 3977.04 12735.13 25808.51 49855.47
2024-02-18 1308.80 29.82 54.67 110.05 355.29 4682.42 14993.88 30386.02 58698.06
2024-02-25 1498.72 34.15 62.60 126.02 406.85 5361.90 17169.67 34795.38 67215.84
2024-03-03 1655.08 37.71 69.13 139.17 449.29 5921.28 18960.91 38425.44 74228.18
2024-03-10 1748.97 39.85 73.05 147.06 474.78 6257.19 20036.56 40605.30 78439.12
2024-03-17 1759.68 40.10 73.50 147.97 477.69 6295.52 20159.29 40854.02 78919.58
2024-03-24 1684.68 38.39 70.37 141.66 457.33 6027.21 19300.12 39112.86 75556.11
2024-03-31 1540.97 35.11 64.36 129.58 418.32 5513.06 17653.72 35776.34 69110.79
2024-04-07 1356.55 30.91 56.66 114.07 368.25 4853.27 15540.98 31494.74 60839.82
2024-04-14 1159.13 26.41 48.41 97.47 314.66 4146.97 13279.27 26911.25 51985.69
2024-04-21 969.03 22.08 40.47 81.48 263.06 3466.86 11101.46 22497.78 43460.00
2024-04-28 797.79 18.18 33.32 67.08 216.57 2854.22 9139.69 18522.15 35780.08
2024-05-05 650.01 14.81 27.15 54.66 176.45 2325.51 7446.66 15091.12 29152.20
2024-05-12 525.95 11.98 21.97 44.23 142.78 1881.66 6025.39 12210.82 23588.20
2024-05-19 423.64 9.65 17.69 35.62 115.00 1515.63 4853.31 9835.52 18999.73
2024-05-26 340.23 7.75 14.21 28.61 92.36 1217.21 3897.72 7898.97 15258.80
2024-06-02 272.72 6.21 11.39 22.93 74.03 975.69 3124.34 6331.66 12231.15
2024-06-09 218.34 4.98 9.12 18.36 59.27 781.14 2501.35 5069.13 9792.27
2024-06-16 174.67 3.98 7.30 14.69 47.42 624.89 2001.01 4055.17 7833.57
2024-06-23 139.66 3.18 5.83 11.74 37.91 499.65 1599.96 3242.41 6263.51
2024-06-30 111.63 2.54 4.66 9.39 30.30 399.38 1278.87 2591.71 5006.53
2024-07-07 89.21 2.03 3.73 7.50 24.22 319.16 1022.01 2071.17 4000.98
2024-07-14 71.28 1.62 2.98 5.99 19.35 255.03 816.64 1654.97 3196.98
2024-07-21 56.95 1.30 2.38 4.79 15.46 203.76 652.48 1322.29 2554.33
2024-07-28 45.50 1.04 1.90 3.83 12.35 162.79 521.29 1056.43 2040.75
2024-08-04 36.35 0.83 1.52 3.06 9.87 130.06 416.47 843.99 1630.38
2024-08-11 29.04 0.66 1.21 2.44 7.88 103.90 332.71 674.26 1302.50
2024-08-18 23.20 0.53 0.97 1.95 6.30 83.01 265.80 538.66 1040.55
2024-08-25 18.53 0.42 0.77 1.56 5.03 66.31 212.34 430.32 831.27
2024-09-01 14.81 0.34 0.62 1.25 4.02 52.97 169.63 343.77 664.08
2024-09-08 11.83 0.27 0.49 0.99 3.21 42.32 135.51 274.63 530.51
2024-09-15 9.45 0.22 0.39 0.79 2.57 33.81 108.26 219.39 423.81
2024-09-22 7.55 0.17 0.32 0.63 2.05 27.01 86.48 175.26 338.57
2024-09-29 17.55 0.40 0.73 1.48 4.76 62.79 201.05 407.44 787.08
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