Prediction 2944

Dengue Sprint2425 Python Temporal Quantitative Weekly ADM 1
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Model LNCC-SURGE-2025-1
Author Americo Cunha Jr
ADM 1 Rio de Janeiro

Description:

Validation test 2 for UF=RJ (Model1 AR_p)


Show Table
date pred lower_95 lower_90 lower_80 lower_50 upper_50 upper_80 upper_90 upper_95
2023-10-08 34.93 1.78 2.83 4.96 12.41 96.05 231.42 399.65 638.79
2023-10-15 42.52 2.17 3.45 6.04 15.11 116.91 281.67 486.44 777.51
2023-10-22 51.75 2.64 4.20 7.35 18.39 142.29 342.83 592.06 946.33
2023-10-29 62.99 3.21 5.11 8.95 22.38 173.18 417.26 720.59 1151.77
2023-11-05 76.65 3.91 6.22 10.89 27.23 210.77 507.81 876.97 1401.72
2023-11-12 93.28 4.75 7.57 13.26 33.14 256.49 617.97 1067.21 1705.80
2023-11-19 113.51 5.78 9.21 16.13 40.32 312.09 751.94 1298.57 2075.59
2023-11-26 138.09 7.04 11.20 19.63 49.06 379.69 914.79 1579.81 2525.12
2023-12-03 167.95 8.56 13.62 23.87 59.67 461.80 1112.63 1921.47 3071.22
2023-12-10 204.20 10.41 16.56 29.02 72.54 561.46 1352.75 2336.15 3734.03
2023-12-17 248.13 12.65 20.12 35.27 88.15 682.25 1643.78 2838.75 4537.37
2023-12-24 301.27 15.35 24.43 42.82 107.03 828.35 1995.79 3446.65 5509.02
2023-12-31 365.34 18.62 29.63 51.92 129.79 1004.53 2420.25 4179.68 6680.67
2024-01-07 442.25 22.54 35.87 62.85 157.11 1216.01 2929.78 5059.62 8087.14
2024-01-14 533.97 27.21 43.30 75.89 189.70 1468.19 3537.38 6108.91 9764.29
2024-01-21 642.27 32.73 52.09 91.28 228.17 1765.97 4254.83 7347.92 11744.69
2024-01-28 768.32 39.16 62.31 109.20 272.95 2112.55 5089.85 8789.97 14049.62
2024-02-04 911.94 46.47 73.96 129.61 323.97 2507.44 6041.29 10433.06 16675.88
2024-02-11 1070.55 54.56 86.82 152.15 380.32 2943.57 7092.07 12247.72 19576.37
2024-02-18 1237.87 63.09 100.39 175.93 439.77 3403.64 8200.53 14161.99 22636.08
2024-02-25 1402.74 71.49 113.76 199.36 498.34 3856.95 9292.72 16048.16 25650.86
2024-03-03 1549.00 78.94 125.62 220.15 550.30 4259.10 10261.63 17721.42 28325.36
2024-03-10 1657.57 84.47 134.43 235.58 588.87 4557.63 10980.89 18963.56 30310.75
2024-03-17 1711.18 87.21 138.78 243.20 607.91 4705.03 11336.02 19576.86 31291.04
2024-03-24 1700.26 86.65 137.89 241.65 604.03 4675.00 11263.68 19451.92 31091.34
2024-03-31 1626.81 82.91 131.93 231.21 577.94 4473.05 10777.13 18611.67 29748.30
2024-04-07 1503.58 76.63 121.94 213.69 534.16 4134.21 9960.74 17201.80 27494.81
2024-04-14 1349.09 68.75 109.41 191.74 479.28 3709.42 8937.28 15434.32 24669.73
2024-04-21 1181.84 60.23 95.85 167.97 419.86 3249.56 7829.32 13520.92 21611.41
2024-04-28 1016.43 51.80 82.43 144.46 361.10 2794.76 6733.54 11628.55 18586.71
2024-05-05 862.32 43.95 69.93 122.55 306.35 2371.01 5712.57 9865.38 15768.51
2024-05-12 724.40 36.92 58.75 102.95 257.35 1991.79 4798.91 8287.53 13246.52
2024-05-19 604.32 30.80 49.01 85.89 214.69 1661.62 4003.42 6913.75 11050.72
2024-05-26 501.71 25.57 40.69 71.30 178.24 1379.48 3323.64 5739.80 9174.31
2024-06-02 415.13 21.16 33.67 59.00 147.48 1141.42 2750.07 4749.27 7591.08
2024-06-09 342.70 17.46 27.79 48.71 121.75 942.28 2270.28 3920.69 6266.70
2024-06-16 282.47 14.40 22.91 40.15 100.35 776.67 1871.27 3231.61 5165.30
2024-06-23 232.58 11.85 18.86 33.05 82.63 639.49 1540.75 2660.82 4252.97
2024-06-30 191.36 9.75 15.52 27.20 67.98 526.16 1267.70 2189.27 3499.25
2024-07-07 157.37 8.02 12.76 22.37 55.91 432.70 1042.53 1800.41 2877.71
2024-07-14 129.38 6.59 10.49 18.39 45.96 355.73 857.07 1480.13 2365.79
2024-07-21 106.34 5.42 8.62 15.11 37.78 292.38 704.45 1216.55 1944.50
2024-07-28 87.39 4.45 7.09 12.42 31.05 240.28 578.92 999.76 1597.99
2024-08-04 71.81 3.66 5.82 10.21 25.51 197.44 475.71 821.52 1313.10
2024-08-11 59.00 3.01 4.79 8.39 20.96 162.23 390.87 675.01 1078.92
2024-08-18 48.48 2.47 3.93 6.89 17.22 133.29 321.15 554.61 886.47
2024-08-25 39.83 2.03 3.23 5.66 14.15 109.51 263.85 455.66 728.32
2024-09-01 32.72 1.67 2.65 4.65 11.62 89.97 216.78 374.36 598.37
2024-09-08 26.88 1.37 2.18 3.82 9.55 73.92 178.10 307.57 491.60
2024-09-15 22.09 1.13 1.79 3.14 7.85 60.73 146.32 252.68 403.88
2024-09-22 18.15 0.92 1.47 2.58 6.45 49.89 120.21 207.59 331.81
2024-09-29 28.70 1.46 2.33 4.08 10.20 78.91 190.13 328.34 524.81
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