Prediction 2947

Dengue Sprint2425 Python Temporal Quantitative Weekly ADM 1
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Model LNCC-SURGE-2025-1
Author Americo Cunha Jr
ADM 1 Roraima

Description:

Validation test 2 for UF=RR (Model1 AR_p)


Show Table
date pred lower_95 lower_90 lower_80 lower_50 upper_50 upper_80 upper_90 upper_95
2023-10-08 1.71 0.13 0.20 0.32 0.71 4.10 8.93 14.26 22.77
2023-10-15 1.99 0.15 0.24 0.37 0.82 4.76 10.38 16.56 26.45
2023-10-22 2.31 0.18 0.27 0.43 0.95 5.53 12.05 19.24 30.72
2023-10-29 2.69 0.21 0.32 0.50 1.11 6.42 14.00 22.34 35.68
2023-11-05 3.12 0.24 0.37 0.58 1.28 7.45 16.25 25.95 41.43
2023-11-12 3.62 0.28 0.43 0.68 1.49 8.66 18.87 30.13 48.10
2023-11-19 4.20 0.33 0.50 0.79 1.73 10.05 21.91 34.97 55.84
2023-11-26 4.88 0.38 0.58 0.91 2.01 11.66 25.42 40.58 64.79
2023-12-03 5.66 0.44 0.67 1.06 2.33 13.52 29.49 47.07 75.16
2023-12-10 6.56 0.51 0.78 1.23 2.70 15.68 34.19 54.57 87.13
2023-12-17 7.60 0.59 0.90 1.43 3.13 18.16 39.60 63.21 100.93
2023-12-24 8.80 0.68 1.04 1.65 3.62 21.02 45.83 73.15 116.80
2023-12-31 10.16 0.79 1.20 1.91 4.18 24.29 52.96 84.54 134.99
2024-01-07 11.73 0.91 1.39 2.20 4.83 28.02 61.10 97.52 155.72
2024-01-14 13.49 1.05 1.60 2.53 5.55 32.24 70.31 112.23 179.20
2024-01-21 15.48 1.20 1.83 2.90 6.37 36.99 80.65 128.74 205.56
2024-01-28 17.68 1.37 2.09 3.32 7.28 42.25 92.13 147.06 234.81
2024-02-04 20.09 1.56 2.37 3.77 8.27 48.00 104.66 167.07 266.76
2024-02-11 22.66 1.76 2.68 4.25 9.33 54.14 118.06 188.46 300.91
2024-02-18 25.33 1.97 2.99 4.75 10.43 60.53 131.99 210.68 336.40
2024-02-25 28.00 2.17 3.31 5.25 11.53 66.91 145.91 232.90 371.87
2024-03-03 30.53 2.37 3.61 5.73 12.57 72.96 159.10 253.96 405.49
2024-03-10 32.76 2.54 3.87 6.14 13.48 78.27 170.68 272.45 435.02
2024-03-17 34.49 2.68 4.08 6.47 14.20 82.42 179.72 286.87 458.04
2024-03-24 35.57 2.76 4.20 6.67 14.64 85.00 185.35 295.85 472.39
2024-03-31 35.89 2.79 4.24 6.73 14.77 85.75 186.99 298.48 476.58
2024-04-07 35.40 2.75 4.18 6.64 14.57 84.60 184.47 294.45 470.15
2024-04-14 34.17 2.65 4.04 6.41 14.06 81.65 178.05 284.21 453.80
2024-04-21 32.32 2.51 3.82 6.06 13.30 77.23 168.40 268.81 429.20
2024-04-28 30.02 2.33 3.55 5.63 12.35 71.72 156.40 249.64 398.61
2024-05-05 27.44 2.13 3.24 5.15 11.29 65.57 142.98 228.23 364.42
2024-05-12 24.76 1.92 2.93 4.64 10.19 59.16 129.01 205.92 328.80
2024-05-19 22.10 1.72 2.61 4.14 9.10 52.81 115.16 183.82 293.50
2024-05-26 19.56 1.52 2.31 3.67 8.05 46.74 101.92 162.68 259.76
2024-06-02 17.20 1.33 2.03 3.22 7.08 41.09 89.60 143.02 228.36
2024-06-09 15.04 1.17 1.78 2.82 6.19 35.93 78.36 125.08 199.71
2024-06-16 13.10 1.02 1.55 2.46 5.39 31.30 68.26 108.95 173.97
2024-06-23 11.38 0.88 1.34 2.13 4.68 27.19 59.28 94.62 151.09
2024-06-30 9.86 0.77 1.17 1.85 4.06 23.56 51.37 81.99 130.92
2024-07-07 8.53 0.66 1.01 1.60 3.51 20.38 44.43 70.92 113.24
2024-07-14 7.37 0.57 0.87 1.38 3.03 17.60 38.39 61.27 97.83
2024-07-21 6.36 0.49 0.75 1.19 2.62 15.19 33.13 52.88 84.44
2024-07-28 5.48 0.43 0.65 1.03 2.26 13.10 28.57 45.61 72.83
2024-08-04 4.73 0.37 0.56 0.89 1.95 11.30 24.63 39.32 62.78
2024-08-11 4.07 0.32 0.48 0.76 1.68 9.73 21.22 33.88 54.09
2024-08-18 3.51 0.27 0.41 0.66 1.44 8.38 18.28 29.18 46.60
2024-08-25 3.02 0.23 0.36 0.57 1.24 7.22 15.75 25.13 40.13
2024-09-01 2.60 0.20 0.31 0.49 1.07 6.22 13.56 21.64 34.56
2024-09-08 2.24 0.17 0.26 0.42 0.92 5.35 11.67 18.64 29.75
2024-09-15 1.93 0.15 0.23 0.36 0.79 4.61 10.05 16.04 25.62
2024-09-22 1.66 0.13 0.20 0.31 0.68 3.97 8.65 13.81 22.05
2024-09-29 1.48 0.11 0.17 0.28 0.61 3.53 7.69 12.27 19.60
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