Prediction 2948

Dengue Sprint2425 Python Temporal Quantitative Weekly ADM 1
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Model LNCC-SURGE-2025-1
Author Americo Cunha Jr
ADM 1 Rio Grande do Sul

Description:

Validation test 2 for UF=RS (Model1 AR_p)


Show Table
date pred lower_95 lower_90 lower_80 lower_50 upper_50 upper_80 upper_90 upper_95
2023-10-08 0.14 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.58 2.22 5.15 10.27
2023-10-15 0.19 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.81 3.08 7.15 14.24
2023-10-22 0.27 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.06 1.12 4.26 9.91 19.75
2023-10-29 0.37 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.08 1.55 5.91 13.74 27.38
2023-11-05 0.51 0.01 0.01 0.03 0.12 2.15 8.20 19.05 37.96
2023-11-12 0.71 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.16 2.98 11.36 26.41 52.62
2023-11-19 0.98 0.01 0.02 0.05 0.22 4.14 15.75 36.61 72.96
2023-11-26 1.36 0.02 0.03 0.07 0.31 5.73 21.84 50.76 101.15
2023-12-03 1.89 0.02 0.05 0.10 0.43 7.95 30.28 70.37 140.23
2023-12-10 2.62 0.03 0.07 0.14 0.59 11.02 41.98 97.56 194.41
2023-12-17 3.63 0.04 0.09 0.20 0.82 15.28 58.20 135.25 269.52
2023-12-24 5.03 0.06 0.13 0.28 1.14 21.18 80.67 187.48 373.62
2023-12-31 6.98 0.09 0.17 0.38 1.58 29.36 111.82 259.86 517.86
2024-01-07 9.67 0.12 0.24 0.53 2.19 40.68 154.95 360.09 717.60
2024-01-14 13.39 0.17 0.33 0.73 3.04 56.35 214.60 498.74 993.90
2024-01-21 18.53 0.23 0.46 1.02 4.21 77.97 296.96 690.14 1375.31
2024-01-28 25.60 0.32 0.64 1.40 5.81 107.71 410.19 953.29 1899.73
2024-02-04 35.24 0.44 0.88 1.93 8.00 148.27 564.69 1312.35 2615.26
2024-02-11 48.20 0.60 1.21 2.65 10.94 202.82 772.43 1795.14 3577.37
2024-02-18 65.15 0.81 1.63 3.58 14.79 274.15 1044.07 2426.44 4835.42
2024-02-25 86.18 1.06 2.15 4.73 19.56 362.61 1380.98 3209.41 6395.74
2024-03-03 109.78 1.36 2.74 6.02 24.91 461.91 1759.16 4088.31 8147.23
2024-03-10 131.65 1.63 3.29 7.22 29.88 553.94 2109.67 4902.90 9770.54
2024-03-17 144.91 1.79 3.62 7.95 32.89 609.76 2322.25 5396.94 10755.06
2024-03-24 143.91 1.78 3.60 7.90 32.66 605.56 2306.24 5359.73 10680.91
2024-03-31 129.12 1.60 3.23 7.09 29.30 543.29 2069.11 4808.65 9582.71
2024-04-07 106.66 1.32 2.67 5.85 24.21 448.81 1709.27 3972.36 7916.15
2024-04-14 83.22 1.03 2.08 4.57 18.89 350.19 1333.68 3099.48 6176.67
2024-04-21 62.70 0.77 1.57 3.44 14.23 263.81 1004.69 2334.92 4653.06
2024-04-28 46.29 0.57 1.16 2.54 10.50 194.78 741.81 1723.98 3435.56
2024-05-05 33.80 0.42 0.85 1.86 7.67 142.24 541.72 1258.97 2508.88
2024-05-12 24.54 0.30 0.61 1.35 5.57 103.27 393.28 913.99 1821.41
2024-05-19 17.76 0.22 0.44 0.97 4.03 74.74 284.63 661.49 1318.21
2024-05-26 12.83 0.16 0.32 0.70 2.91 54.00 205.66 477.96 952.48
2024-06-02 9.27 0.11 0.23 0.51 2.10 38.99 148.48 345.06 687.64
2024-06-09 6.69 0.08 0.17 0.37 1.52 28.13 107.14 249.00 496.22
2024-06-16 4.82 0.06 0.12 0.26 1.09 20.30 77.30 179.65 358.00
2024-06-23 3.48 0.04 0.09 0.19 0.79 14.64 55.76 129.59 258.25
2024-06-30 2.51 0.03 0.06 0.14 0.57 10.56 40.22 93.48 186.28
2024-07-07 1.81 0.02 0.05 0.10 0.41 7.62 29.01 67.43 134.37
2024-07-14 1.31 0.02 0.03 0.07 0.30 5.49 20.93 48.63 96.92
2024-07-21 0.94 0.01 0.02 0.05 0.21 3.96 15.09 35.08 69.90
2024-07-28 0.68 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.15 2.86 10.89 25.30 50.42
2024-08-04 0.49 0.01 0.01 0.03 0.11 2.06 7.85 18.25 36.37
2024-08-11 0.35 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.08 1.49 5.66 13.16 26.23
2024-08-18 0.25 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.06 1.07 4.09 9.49 18.92
2024-08-25 0.18 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.77 2.95 6.85 13.65
2024-09-01 0.13 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.56 2.13 4.94 9.84
2024-09-08 0.10 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.40 1.53 3.56 7.10
2024-09-15 0.07 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.29 1.11 2.57 5.12
2024-09-22 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.21 0.80 1.85 3.69
2024-09-29 0.10 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.42 1.60 3.72 7.41
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