Prediction 2949

Dengue Sprint2425 Python Temporal Quantitative Weekly ADM 1
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Model LNCC-SURGE-2025-1
Author Americo Cunha Jr
ADM 1 Santa Catarina

Description:

Validation test 2 for UF=SC (Model1 AR_p)


Show Table
date pred lower_95 lower_90 lower_80 lower_50 upper_50 upper_80 upper_90 upper_95
2023-10-08 0.18 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.03 1.10 5.51 15.90 35.61
2023-10-15 0.24 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03 1.49 7.48 21.57 48.32
2023-10-22 0.32 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.05 2.02 10.15 29.27 65.55
2023-10-29 0.44 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.06 2.74 13.77 39.71 88.93
2023-11-05 0.60 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.09 3.72 18.68 53.88 120.66
2023-11-12 0.81 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.12 5.05 25.34 73.09 163.70
2023-11-19 1.10 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.16 6.85 34.38 99.17 222.09
2023-11-26 1.49 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.22 9.29 46.64 134.54 301.31
2023-12-03 2.02 0.01 0.02 0.06 0.29 12.61 63.27 182.53 408.78
2023-12-10 2.75 0.01 0.03 0.08 0.40 17.10 85.84 247.63 554.57
2023-12-17 3.73 0.01 0.04 0.10 0.54 23.20 116.46 335.94 752.35
2023-12-24 5.05 0.02 0.05 0.14 0.73 31.47 157.98 455.72 1020.59
2023-12-31 6.85 0.03 0.07 0.19 0.99 42.69 214.28 618.14 1384.34
2024-01-07 9.30 0.03 0.10 0.26 1.34 57.90 290.60 838.29 1877.38
2024-01-14 12.60 0.05 0.13 0.35 1.82 78.49 393.96 1136.46 2545.13
2024-01-21 17.07 0.06 0.18 0.47 2.46 106.34 533.75 1539.70 3448.21
2024-01-28 23.11 0.09 0.24 0.64 3.34 143.90 722.29 2083.59 4666.28
2024-02-04 31.20 0.12 0.32 0.86 4.50 194.32 975.36 2813.61 6301.18
2024-02-11 41.97 0.16 0.43 1.16 6.06 261.38 1311.98 3784.67 8475.90
2024-02-18 56.06 0.21 0.58 1.54 8.09 349.14 1752.45 5055.26 11321.44
2024-02-25 73.95 0.28 0.76 2.04 10.67 460.56 2311.73 6668.62 14934.62
2024-03-03 95.46 0.36 0.98 2.63 13.78 594.54 2984.25 8608.64 19279.36
2024-03-10 118.90 0.44 1.23 3.27 17.16 740.52 3716.98 10722.33 24013.03
2024-03-17 140.17 0.52 1.44 3.86 20.23 872.99 4381.90 12640.42 28308.67
2024-03-24 153.21 0.57 1.58 4.22 22.12 954.20 4789.48 13816.17 30941.80
2024-03-31 153.09 0.57 1.58 4.21 22.10 953.46 4785.78 13805.50 30917.90
2024-04-07 139.87 0.52 1.44 3.85 20.19 871.09 4372.33 12612.82 28246.86
2024-04-14 118.51 0.44 1.22 3.26 17.11 738.10 3704.80 10687.21 23934.39
2024-04-21 95.08 0.35 0.98 2.62 13.72 592.16 2972.26 8574.06 19201.90
2024-04-28 73.62 0.27 0.76 2.03 10.63 458.50 2301.38 6638.76 14867.73
2024-05-05 55.79 0.21 0.57 1.54 8.05 347.48 1744.12 5031.25 11267.67
2024-05-12 41.76 0.16 0.43 1.15 6.03 260.10 1305.55 3766.11 8434.34
2024-05-19 31.04 0.12 0.32 0.85 4.48 193.35 970.49 2799.58 6269.75
2024-05-26 22.99 0.09 0.24 0.63 3.32 143.18 718.66 2073.10 4642.78
2024-06-02 16.99 0.06 0.18 0.47 2.45 105.80 531.05 1531.91 3430.76
2024-06-09 12.54 0.05 0.13 0.35 1.81 78.09 391.96 1130.69 2532.22
2024-06-16 9.25 0.03 0.10 0.25 1.34 57.60 289.12 834.03 1867.84
2024-06-23 6.82 0.03 0.07 0.19 0.98 42.47 213.19 614.99 1377.30
2024-06-30 5.03 0.02 0.05 0.14 0.73 31.31 157.17 453.40 1015.40
2024-07-07 3.71 0.01 0.04 0.10 0.53 23.08 115.86 334.23 748.52
2024-07-14 2.73 0.01 0.03 0.08 0.39 17.02 85.41 246.37 551.75
2024-07-21 2.01 0.01 0.02 0.06 0.29 12.54 62.95 181.60 406.70
2024-07-28 1.48 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.21 9.24 46.40 133.85 299.77
2024-08-04 1.09 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.16 6.81 34.20 98.66 220.96
2024-08-11 0.81 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.12 5.02 25.21 72.72 162.86
2024-08-18 0.59 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.09 3.70 18.58 53.60 120.04
2024-08-25 0.44 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.06 2.73 13.70 39.51 88.48
2024-09-01 0.32 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.05 2.01 10.09 29.12 65.22
2024-09-08 0.24 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03 1.48 7.44 21.46 48.07
2024-09-15 0.18 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.03 1.09 5.48 15.82 35.43
2024-09-22 0.13 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.81 4.04 11.66 26.12
2024-09-29 0.13 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.81 4.06 11.72 26.25
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